BIG DAMN BREAKING: more evidence the PA gap isn't much of a gap

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

Insider Advantage has Clinton up 3 (THREE) points: 45-42.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

[depakid]

1. When the totals come out at the election- and the polls are proven way off base

yet again, will people stop dancing to their tunes?

Probably not....

[NJSecularist]

3. What polls have been proven way off base? There is a trend here.

[depakid]

5. Oh good grief- many have been off by double digits

and you're still seeing widespread differences.

Like I said- after the elections, take a look back and see if those "trends" held up.

[NJSecularist]

6. When multiple polls show a trend, then it is a trend.

Of course all polls aren't going to be perfect.

[depakid]

11. Not if multiple polls have also have selection and response bias

Races tend to tighten up toward the end, but by how much is very much an open question.

Bottom line is that the standard practice in America is to use these deals (and they're cheap ones, unlike the campaign internals) -to attempt to influence public opinion- not to reflect it.

[thewiseguy]

10. Show me one state where polls suggested a trend and it did not happen?

There has to be a trend. Every freaking poll is showing the same trend. Some more than others, but the gap is undoubtedly closing fast.

[depakid]

12. Have you forgotten New Hamphire already?

To name but one.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

14. Have you forgotten that Clinton and Obama tied in NH?

With 9 delegates each?

And that Clinton was the favorite by a huge margin just a few days before?

New Hampshire's an example of the trend in the polls being correct.

[depakid]

16. Not from what I recall.

Scroll down on this page, for example (mentioning New Hampshire but more importantly California:

http://bucknakedpolitics.typepad.com/buck_naked_politics/2008/02/super-duper-t-1.html

[NJSecularist]

19. New Hampshire's polls have always been hit and miss.

Do you remember 2000 when Bradley was leading in the polls in the days leading up to the New Hampshire primary, he was leading in the first wave of exit polls, and then he lost to Gore by 5 points? I do.

[JPZenger]

26. NH: Large undecided broke for Clinton

The New Hampshire polls were accurate. The mistake was that people stressed the point spread and ignored the large undecided percentage. That undecided broke for Hillary at the last minute.

[Buzz Clik]

29. No doubt NH was the worst case. Here are the polling and voting data

And the link to the actual poll numbers: http://www.pollster.com/08-NH-Dem-Pres-Primary.php


And the voting data:

Clinton: 39%
Obama: 37%
Edwards: 17%
Richardson: 5%


The "failure" of the polls was attempting to tightly quantify the difference between Obama and Clinton when two other candidates were still attracting voters and -- much more importantly -- when there was such a tremendous swing from Clinton to Obama over a very short span of time. Consider that as of December 1 Clinton had a lead in the polls ranging from 7 to 14 points, and this lead essentially evaporated by voting day. In the last days before the actual vote, the polls had Obama either tied with Clinton or leading by as much as 14 points.

I think you'd be hard pressed to see any polling problems as severe as that since the NH primary.

[lisa58]

2. don't you mean dam and not damn?

[Jersey Devil]

17. Maybe it's the damned dam

LOL

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

20. as in BIG DAMN BREAKING NEWS or DAMN BIG BREAKING NEWS or

....OK. You're right.

[DearAbby]

4. I am pleased Obama

is able to close the gap, and with still plenty of time to make this very possible, like Texas, this could be a squeaker.

[Alter Ego]

7. An outlier, but this is the second one that's showed something like this.

There's a trend here, folks, and while it may not be enough for Barack to win the state, it'll shrink the margin down to a size that's untenable for Hillary's expectations.

[Bullet1987]

18. There can't be two outliers back-to-back

This is not the first poll to show Clinton with a very small lead. Rasmussen showed her ahead by only about 5 or 6 points and that was about 2-3 days ago. Then you had the PPP poll that actually had Obama ahead by a few points. That's now THREE polls that show either an incredibly small Clinton lead or Obama ahead. I don't think you can call it an outlier.

[Alter Ego]

21. I'm desperately trying not to raise my expectations, because

I don't want to feel crushed when he does not win PA.

[Zachstar]

8. WOW!! and we still have 3 weeks to go!

If that little gap shows up at the polls. Obama will likely walk away with more delegates!!

I bet Clinton wishes the Primary was the day before yesterday now!

[quantass]

9. Impressive! But lets not get our hopes up -- i will continue to hope for him to keep it to 10-15pts

[MadBadger]

13. Actually, that poll has him down 2 if you go to the actual poll's site.

They also severely underrepresent Obama's black support. If you adjust it to regular models, Obama wins.

[DeadElephant_ORG]

15. time to move those goal posts again. "If she ONLY loses by less than 2 points..."

[Eurobabe]

22. This will be close, my boots on the ground tell me so.

Stay tuned. Won't be the blow-out HRC is expecting.

[Cosmocat]

23. I would LOVE ...

to have BO win it outright, and put her down ...

But, realistically, I am aiming for him to at least come within 5 points of her ... That will keep her pinned down, and maybe let him put her down in Indiana/NC ...

[Eurobabe]

28. I am not saying he WON'T, just pointing out

that it probably won't be a blow out that she needs. :D

[BumRushDaShow]

24. "Big Damn Breaking:"... LOL

I like that type of announcement! :rofl:

Kick! :kick:

[JPZenger]

25. The Charm Offensive and Airwave War are Working

I live in PA. A month ago, there were many Dems who didn't know much about Obama.

That has been changing as people pay more attention to the race - the local news and newspapers have been filled with coverage. This has been helped by the bus tour that helped to humanize Obama - he bottle fed farm animals, ate at a hot dog stand, excercised at 2 am in a 24 hour health club, stopped at a diner in Center City Reading, was very well received at an AFL-CIO convention, picked up union endorsements this week, etc.

Also, Obama has complete airwave superiority in PA. He has a full set of new well-crafted commercials that are on regularly -including on Oprah's show. Hillary has 2 recycled ads that I have not yet seen on the air.

[DangerousRhythm]

27. This is awesome, but...

I'm not getting my hopes up just yet as it's too early to tell what's going to happen. It's gonna be a tough fight, y'know? :)