How the HELL Does Obama Do It? Why Do Clinton's Leads ALWAYS Shrink?

[Bullet1987]

I eagerly wait for the next batch of Rasmussen, SUSA, and Zogby polls to see if they match up with the PPP and Insider Advantage polls (though Ras has her up only by 5). How is it that Clinton led handily by 20-30 points just 3 weeks ago, and now her lead is evaporating everyday? Howard Wolfson is already spinning that if Obama doesn't win, then he's failed because he's outspending her. The Clinton campaign has done a horrible job at lowering expectations in PA, look for them to do that next week if the polls hold. Does anybody know when the next Rasmussen, SUSA, and Zogby PA polls will come out?

Obama is UNBELIEBABLE!!!

[stellanoir]

1. sincerity

more should try it

[roguevalley]

92. also, people underestimated his organizational skills. Hillary had no

plan past Super Tuesday. its all been scramble. she had no machines in place in all the 'irrelevant' places that followed. Obama believed everywhere was good and has machinery everywhere. he knows how to handle money and what to do. He's also confident about his plan and when it works that adds to it. he knows if he just focuses on the goal, he will rise because people want change, not four more years of the same old tiresome shit, like bimbo eruptions and the like. She underestimated her appeal, he didn't. She had no plan in place and believed the pundits when they 'chose' her to win. He knew he could win it the hard way, by earning it and he has.

[leftofcool]

2. Yea, sort of like Ohio

[scheming daemons]

3. Yep... she was up 25 a month before Ohio... won by less than 10....

...

[tekisui]

6. It is like Ohio. She was up near 20% lead, weeks out.

She won by 10%.

[joshcryer]

19. You two forget that he was tied and even winning in some polls on election day.

[tekisui]

23. Polls a week before are practically meaningless.

And single polls are insignificant.

But, weeks before you can read the trends. The trend is definitely for Obama. Next week, I think, we'll have a good idea how PA will break.

[thewiseguy]

62. Hillary had the trend in both Texas and Ohio just before the election day

There was only one poll, Zogby, that had Obama and Hillary tied in Ohio on the election day.

You can go and look this up. You can not deny trends.

[Cha]

87. Plus she was lying her head off about Nafta

and 3am ads..now if people just learn to ignore her lies..Obama will win PA.

[democrattotheend]

4. I'm not happy with these polls

I still don't believe he can win PA, and these polls raise the stakes. I was happier when he was 15 points down, because I think the final margin will be similar to Ohio. I hope I am wrong, but in my heart I don't think he can win it.

I do think the Casey endorsement and the time he has spent in the state probably helped. She starts out as the defacto favorite everywhere because she is better known.

[tekisui]

10. Obama said if they play a perfect game, they can win PA.

But, he said it's a long shot.

[Bullet1987]

13. I'm beginning to become cautiosly optimistic that he can pull a major upset in PA

But I'll have to see the next Rasmussen, SUSA, and Zogby polls. PPP has been pretty accurate though themselves.

[Coexist]

28. please don't assume that - no one primary result has born that out

if Obama comes within 10, he wins.

If you believe the polls, like in Tx, Oh and Ca, you will be let down by the results.

Less than 10 points is a win. Rinse. Repeat.


Please keep your perspective, if expectations are allowed to be lowered for Clinton, this thing will drag on forever.

[MattBaggins]

36. Maybe she can take it even past the Convention

past the GE

and slap the Bible out of Obama's hand and beg Roberts to swear her in instead?

[Cant trust em]

14. three weeks to go.

that's a long time.

[PATRICK]

26. The GOP machine

will move heaven and earth(at least verbally) to close the gap and torment the party. Meanwhile Clinton has to fall into line by moving the goalposts steadily so an Obama loss is somehow a major defeat instead of how the huge gap was easily closed. She is blaming being "outspent" which is a wise spin away from the "money woes". A long time to go developing that one and "coming back".

Patience. Discipline. Don't get caught up in any poll spin- at least among ourselves. What is happening would happen without a single public poll being taken. What can spoil things is how the "contest" polls spin our process toward some GOP advantage. That includes going wild about Obama doing so well when we are still weeks away. It mostly means public perception, despite strong MSM and Clinton efforts that Obama will be the nominee. THAT is how Clinton had that 20% advantage to begin with and can shift just as easily.

Yes I would love to see- and we may see yet- some public wave toward the best candidate because of merit and charisma. When I think of Nixon vs. JFK and many other elections the reality is not that uplifting about the voters, who mainly get it by a dismayingly small margin- and sometimes don't(Reagan vs. Carter)- and thus are always vulnerable to lies and cheating.

[billbuckhead]

5. Huge amount of media help NPR was whoring for him this morning

Corporate America wants this easy to beat candidate so bad they can't contain themselves.

[Bullet1987]

21. Easy to beat, but Clinton can't do it...ROFL

The only stronger candidate who could have run against Obama was Al Gore.

[MattBaggins]

38. Zing

oh snap

[billbuckhead]

54. Edwards polled the best in the general by a country mile

Edwards polled by far the best in the general but the party elites and the media kicked him to the curb. God forbid we have a white guy.

[anigbrowl]

33. NPR = corporate America now? You get weirder every day.

It's possible to like and/or admire Clinton, while still recognizing that she has some real problems with the people who are helping to run her campaign...but some people would rather believe conspiracy theories. It's pretty funny how the crazies on both the left and the right are BOTH so sure the media is biased against them.

[billbuckhead]

53. And who sponsers NPR? Tell me or apologize?

[40ozDonkey]

58. I don't know, who sponsors National Public Radio?

:sigh:

[billbuckhead]

65. 24% of their money comes from corporate sponsors like Walmart

<http://www.npr.org/about/privatesupport.html>

[40ozDonkey]

67. 34% from listener support. The conspiracy angle is played out.

[billbuckhead]

73. Walmart, Exxon-Mobil, Archer Daniel Midlands, Microsoft have more clout than local listeners

Local listeners just pay for PHC.

[polpilot]

81. Wasn't Shrillary on Wal-mart's board?

Or was she water'boarded' after the sniper incident. Didn't she return fire?

[HooptieWagon]

85. Yes, during the union-busting time, and the beginning of outsoucing.

[billbuckhead]

93. Yep and Hillary tried to make Walmart a more just company

"Throughout the 1980s, both Bill and Hillary Clinton nurtured relationships with Walton, a conservative Republican and by far Arkansas' most influential businessman.

Among other things, Hillary Clinton sought Walton's help in 1983 for Bill Clinton's so-called Blue Ribbon Commission on Education, a major effort to improve Arkansas' troubled public schools. The overhaul became a centerpiece of Clinton's governorship.

And Wal-Mart's Made in America campaign, which for years touted the company's sales of American products in its stores, was launched after Bill Clinton persuaded Walton to help save 200 jobs at an Arkansas shirt manufacturing plant. The Made in America campaign has virtually vanished in recent years, as the company's manufacturing has gradually moved overseas -- another point of criticism by many Wal-Mart critics.

The Clintons also benefited financially from Wal-Mart. Hillary Clinton was paid $18,000 each year she served on the board, plus $1,500 for each meeting she attended. By 1993 she had accumulated at least $100,000 in Wal-Mart stock, according to Bill Clinton's federal financial disclosure forms that year.

Wal-Mart has little to say about Hillary Clinton's board service, and will not release minutes of the company's board meetings during her tenure.

Lorraine Voles, Clinton's communications director, turned down a request for an interview with the senator.

Still, details have come to light over the years.

Bob Ortega, author of ''In Sam We Trust," a history of Wal-Mart, said Clinton used her position to urge the company to improve its gender and racial diversity. Because of Clinton's prodding, Walton agreed to hire an outside firm to track the company's progress in hiring women and minorities, Ortega said.

Clinton proved to be such a thorn in Walton's side that at Wal-Mart's annual meeting in 1987, when shareholders challenged Walton on the company's lack of female managers, he assured them the record was improving ''now that we have a strong-willed young lady on the board."

Clinton was particularly vocal on environmental matters, pressing the company to boost its sale and use of recycled materials and other ''green" products.

Still, critics say there was little tangible change at Wal-Mart during Clinton's tenure, despite her apparent prodding.

''There's no evidence she did anything to improve the status of women or make it a very different place in ways Mrs. Clinton's Democratic base would care about," said Liza Featherstone, author of ''Selling Women Short: The Landmark Battle for Worker's Rights at Wal-Mart.""
--------------snip---------------
<http://www.commondreams.org/headlines06/0312-01.htm>


Maybe not up to saint status but probably did more to help people than her opponent's "community organizing".

[roguevalley]

90. it makes my head spin to hear this easy to beat shit when he's

winning. He will win this and he will beat McCain into dust. easy to beat. it is so laugh. so, beat him, Hillary. I hear he is easy.

[Symarip]

7. He promises ponies.

For serious, who doesn't like ponies?

[maddiejoan]

15. This guy.

[Symarip]

27. If you don't like ponies,

The terrorists win.

[DarienComp]

31. "I didn't know she had a pony.

How was I to know she had a pony? Who figures an immigrant's going to have a pony? Do you know what the odds are on that? I mean, in all the pictures I saw of immigrants on boats coming into New York harbor, I never saw one of them sitting on a pony.

Why would anybody come here if they had a pony? Who leaves a country packed with ponies to come to a non-pony country?

It doesn't make sense.. am I wrong?"

Poor Aunt Manya.

[knixphan]

8. Obama has US.

And we are powerful.

[SammyWinstonJack]

29. But not powerful enough to stop bu$hco?

:shrug:

[knixphan]

57. gotta take 'em one at a time

[gcomeau]

9. Name recognition stops working...

...when voters start recognizing the other guy too. As soon as Obama crosses a state line the momentum shifts.

[Hart2008]

97. Bingo! All the Hillbots have been citing polls for over a year here. It meant nothing.

It was all about name recognition.

Her negatives have always been sky high, and they haven't gone down.

So, the results shouldn't surprise anyone.

[TheDonkey]

11. He goes into the state and gets onto the local media. Believe it or not CNN, MSNBC, FOX

are not watched in all Americans' houses ;). When Obama has time to campaign in a state and get into the local media people beging to like what they see.
GO OBAMA!

[pocoloco]

12. So is Hillary!!

Can't believe a thing she says!

[joshcryer]

16. Money.

It's always money. He has the largest campaign organization in existance. It is why he almost universially wins caucus states (since you can campaign *in* the caucus, an illegal activity in a primary poll). He spends his money wisely.

But remember he brings his 'leads' down to a tie but when Hillary has a substantial lead beforehand she still manages to pull out a win.

This time I'm not so sure because it's looking like she's broke.

[Tom Rinaldo]

32. That's a biggie alright

It costs millions of dollars to spend millions of dollars, lol. No one is going to throw millions of dollars out the window on added campaign costs if it didn't buy you something really valuable in return; more votes.

[donheld]

35. There was no campaigning in our caucus.

[joshcryer]

95. Did anyone wear any buttons for Obama or Hillary at your caucus?

That is *illegal* in a poll.

[donheld]

96. Oh Please

[cottonseed]

17. Has there been even 1 state that Hillary hasn't lost a lead?

I posted the same comment on another thread, but I'm sure the answer is, "not one".

OH, TX, CA, and now PA. Talk about buyer's remorse. She's losing even when she's winning. I think I saw a recent CA poll with Obama now enjoying a comfortable lead. He's winning by campaigning, by getting out there, talking to people -- the old fashioned way.

[crankychatter]

18. they hear him, they like him better, they vote for him

so it goes

if I were a Clinton supporter, I'd be thinking about mending fences and figuring out how to campaign for the probable nominee

but that's just me

[flor de jasmim]

20. She has also shot herself in the foot several times, and

Bill doesn't help. People are beginning to really pay attention, and the more they see of Obama, the better they like him.

But still we should put too much emotional energy into the polls, because it is VERY easy to purposefully manipulate the data, just a bit, so they still sound reasonable but are knowingly inaccurate.

On the other hand, it may be that PA'ans, like the rest of us, just want the primary season OVER and realize they are in a good position to make that happen.

[roguevalley]

91. all the gaffs, especially bill's are reminding people of other bad

times. they are tired of it.

[quantass]

22. Sincerity

[tabasco]

25. That's right. And good leadership.

People can recognize it when they see it.

[FlaGranny]

24. She is turning people off.

I just heard that "bowling" commentary of hers. She uses ridicule against him at every turn. You can bet when he responds to that we'll get "Poor Hillary, everyone picks on her because she's a woman." Now she's going all soft and sweet again, not tough at all today, just all warm and cuddly and doing it by swiping one of Obama's campaign slogans: "It's not about me, it's about YOU. I want to hear from YOU." Unhuh.

[butterfly77]

30. None of that nuance bullshit..

of same old talking points of the past and not being real..

[Zachstar]

34. By not freaking out when polls show big odds and doing the job good and steady.

This is Clinton's worst nightmare. Clinton has been unable to chew into Obama territory with any kind of ability like Obama has into hers.

And PA is the last difficult state for Obama. If he keeps her lead in the 5 percent range he will be amazingly strong going into the remaining contests.

[loyalsister]

37. Her campaign is top down

it stops working when his bottom up campaign actually goes to work. The results show up in the end. I don't think he will win, but it will be close, because:
When people see him up close they get behind him.

The ground game has people going door to door, the arena speeches, and the local supporters doing coffee chats.
He is courting voters close up or even individually not en masse at the perfect time.

[futureliveshere]

39. She took Ohio in the last 2 days with the NAFTA lies.

She would otherwise have either lost it or won it narrowly. Look for the Clinton campaign to throw some extra rich, super-stick MUD in the last week before the primary if the polls continue to move in BO's favor.

[Zachstar]

45. That is a trick that wont work again

She has used every trick in the book to bring down Obama. And while she may score a PA win with a trick it will mean she will lose all the remaining states because the trick will be exposed so fast it will make the pundits yell.

[futureliveshere]

106. she is an accomplished politician

Who will do bloody anything to win. Though I have no doubt about the long term result and firmly believe that obama will win, this post is about PA though and I think Hillary will play dirty if she has to, to win.

[debbierlus]

40. Because most people don't pay a bit of attention until they vote - Clinton is name recognition

People will say support who they know in a poll.

Many Americans don't pay attention until the race is BROUGHT to them. Obama is now all over PA, and the people like him. He
has the best on the ground organization.

And, his speech on Race was a national wonder.

He will be the nominee.

[cooolandrew]

41. Basically Barack is the true fighter but he does it with grace.

[crankychatter]

42. Why do I hear "Sweet Georgia Brown?"

now I'm whistling...

oh yeah... harlem globe trotters vs washington generals

[george_maniakes]

43. He knows what he wants, and he's smart enough to know how to get there, ...

and tenacious enough to actually do it.

[grantcart]

44. Pennsylvania is a more like Wisconsin than Ohio

I know the pundits keep referring to Ohio but I think that it is closer to Wisconsin; It is a one on one contest (Ohio had 3 other primaries) the also have more time to really flesh it out.

And note PPP was the first one to predict that he was going to win Wisconsin ( and they were roundly laughed at) and their last poll on Wisconsin was exactly on if you added all the undecideds to Obama.

PPP was so stunned by their results they polled it a second night - got the same reults.

[Hepburn]

46. They both show up....

...he is likable and she is not.

That would explain it. :hi:

[polichick]

47. To know him is to love him...

As soon as he shows up and voters start paying attention to what he's saying and how he's saying it ~ the SOLD sign goes up!

(Plus, there's this GIGANTIC GRASSROOTS MOVEMENT behind him.)

[WilyWondr]

48. Time

Time is a basic component of the measuring system used to sequence events, to compare the durations of events and the intervals between them, and to quantify the motions of objects. Time has been a major subject of religion, philosophy, and science, but defining time in a non-controversial manner applicable to all fields of study has consistently eluded the greatest scholars.

[eridani]

94. Time---

--is Nature's way of keeping everything from happening all at once.


OK, it's old. So sue me!

[Jed Dilligan]

49. He's cool.

He doesn't freak out and say random shit about sniper fire. The close race doesn't appear to faze him, nor do the attacks. I think the color of his skin in a racist nation has made him view a tough fight against vicious enemies to be the run of the mill. He stays himself, cool and affable, where others who feel more entitled to an easy path in life would go ballistic. America's been missing that in a leader for a long, long while.

[rainbow4321]

50. Grassroots?

If he has done in PA what he did in TX it is no wonder why he is surging in the PA polls. Go get a copy of the Rolling Stone mag that has him on the cover and it has a LONG article on how he had grassroot volunteers on the ground way ahead of our primary election day.

[FrenchieCat]

51. He's not a bigass phony.......Folks sense that......

[rndmprsn]

52. K+R off to the greatest page with you...

[Barack_America]

55. Two words: Grassroots and Tuzla

They both deserve credit for this one.

[hedgehog]

56. Give credit where credit is due. It's not all about Obama, Hillary and

Bill are responsible for most of the shift!

[marlakay]

59. She has name rec. and they are meeting him

and i heard once people hear him in person he wins them over. obviously she is not.

[johnnydrama]

60. it's the same with super delegates

She started out with a big lead everywhere, and has rarely made it bigger.

Just like superdelegates, she started with a big lead, and has barely added any super delegates in 2 months, while he's added 70 or so.

She's the name recognition candidate.

She starts out with a big lead, and when people see him, that lead erodes.

[quantass]

61. k&r

[DeschutesRiver]

63. Partly people getting to see who he is

When this race began, I knew who Clinton and Edwards were, but didn't even have a clue who this Obama was, or even Richardson.

As things progressed, I remembered more about who Hillary really was, from those years they ruled DC and when I first began to lose respect for a couple that I thought were good people, but learned were more like thugs and used car salesman who would say anything to get their way, and who end of the day had zero respect for voters other than to use 'em up.

The closer Super Tuesday came, the more I remembered. So yeah, I could see most people just too worried about putting food on the table to give a rat's patootie about this primary nonsense too early in the game; and just sticking with what is familiar if you push them on it. And then it gets closer to pull the voting trigger, and when they start listening, Obama becomes a real viable alternative.

Which seems to be the point at which they say - now that I think about it, didn't Clinton support a lot of those things which have left me jobless, etc... and so it goes, and the numbers close. They remember who Clinton really is, and they learn who Obama is and think about what he might become.

And the gap closes, every time.

[BenDavid]

64. do you ever really look at a poll and see the breakdown of whom

they called and asked. Well, one should In the last nbc poll last week there was only 700 people asked (usually to get a good sampling there is over 1000 people polled) but in this poll there was a bigger then usual number of blacks to respond to this poll......is this a true poll? No....The reason given for the higher amount of sampling from blacks was to see how the wright controversy affected obama. Excuse me, but maybe the next poll nbc runs, maybe they will over sample white women over 60 years old, and how those poll numbers reflect the people.....I be willing to bet HRC would be ahead of obama in the same way with the over sampling of blacks obama was ahead of hrc.....

So, look at the fine print in these polls....

[CreekDog]

100. Wrong...in the overall sample, blacks were not overrepresented

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/185977.php

Over-Sampled, Not Over-Represented

Just a quick update on the oversampling of African-American voters in that NBC/WSJ poll, which Josh mentioned last night.

The pollster has released a memo explaining, as we suspected, that while blacks were oversampled to be able to get a statistically reliable subgroup for answers to questions specific to black voters, the horse race numbers were corrected for this oversampling and did not over-represent blacks.

Carry on.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

66. It's very simple: Hillary's so-called "message" is pure vaporware. There's no THERE there.

[rateyes]

68. Perhaps spending too much time in the swimming pool?

:shrug:

[Yael]

69. "Your word is your bond. Truth matters" -- Michelle Obama

vs the Tanya Harding emulating, kitchen sink throwing, authoritarian queen of the lying DINO Democrats.

This should come as no surprise to anyone.

[OzarkDem]

71. But he has no "word" - just spin

[Yael]

72. You hear what you want to hear, not what is being said.

[billbuckhead]

75. Yeah, here's race card playing in action by Hillary opponent's wife

<http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ESsaVSTSYxQ&feature=related>

[Yael]

77. Hows that echo chamber working out for ya there, Bill?

Oh, and welcome back.

[BlooInBloo]

70. The water's COLD!

[Warren DeMontague]

74. Because everyone who can still stand Hillary Clinton is already voting for her, and those numbers

shrink every day.

[jn2375]

76. Obama's on the radio and tv everywhere here in PA

people in PA are actually finally getting a good look at him, hear him speak, and they are liking what they see.

[XemaSab]

78. Warning to the Clinton supporters: this post involves the use of the word "race"

Okay, here's what I think it is.

I think there's a LOT of white people out there who initially think "I'm not comfortable voting for the black guy," but then when they see Obama on TV and sort of get to know who he is, their initial racist reaction dissipates.

This is my gut feeling about it.

[JerseygirlCT]

79. The more people see and hear of him

the more they like him. It doesn't seem to work that way with Clinton. And the more desperate she and her campaign gets, the nastier they get, and that's been a big turn-off.

It seems in the other states where she was expected to do very well, he might have pulled off upsets had he had more time - the trends were in his favor, the clock was not.

This time, there's still time.

[Johnny__Motown]

80. Name recognition support is weak.

[madrchsod]

82. simple-to much time between ohio and pennsylvania

obama would`t have had the time to make up the difference if the primary would have been a week or two after ohio. he`s "tied" with her now..the game is just getting interesting

[HooptieWagon]

83. Obama is a campaigner, hillary has never had to.

Her Senate seat was arranged for her, she rode in on Bill's coattails. She thought the same could be done with a presidential campaign - ride into town on Bill's coattails and name recognition, lock up heavy PAC donations, line up 150 SDs before the first primary, declare herself the inevidible nominee, and sit back and wait until super tuesday when she could crown herself the nominee. Unfortunately for her, this little process called democracy got in the way.

Once both candidates hit the ground, people discover they really don't like hillary, and as they get to know Obama they prefer him. That's why he always closes the gap.

[FatDave]

98. You're right.

This is Hillary's first real campaign! And what a job she's doing. Maybe had she actually had to work for her senate sheet, she'd be doing a better job.

[RichardRay]

84. Ground game, organizing savvy, the wisdom of crowds

He knows how to work the streets to gain support for something. It's a skill and you don't learn it in Congress or in school. Then he recruits other people who have he same skills, and they recruit others to form a cadre. The cadre moves into carefully selected areas and establishes credentials with people in the community who lead opinion. Those contacts are used to form a base and off they go. Senator Obama can pretty much take his hands off the wheel at that point, even go to the Virgin Islands for a couple of days with his family, he can make missteps, he can bowl a 37. It doesn't affect the campaign much at all on a day to day basis. The folks working for him know what they're doing and why they're doing it.

His opponents, meanwhile, are spending a lot of energy trying to figure out how to drive the process from the top down; if one of them bowls a 37 it's a much bigger deal. I think that's been true of Senator Clinton's campaign and I am pretty sure it is and will be true of McCain's. It's not just a question of having more resources, although Senator Obama is looking pretty good in that department right now. It's also a matter of having a lot of hands applying the resources efficiently.

Anyway, that's how it looks to me...

[AZBlue]

86. It's because he's far superior to her on every possible level.

Simple.

[GoesTo11]

88. Maybe her strategy is to drop fast then beat expectations

It's worked quite a few times now.

[GoldieAZ49]

89. for some it is the first/last time they can vote against a Clinton

they will vote against Obama in November

[IsItJustMe]

104. Damn, your positive. Sure your in the right place.

[GoldieAZ49]

105. It was what a voter in Idaho or Utah said on a radio show months ago

and he was tickled to be able to do it. Must have been one of the open primaries.

[AGirl]

99. alot of ads.

[Faygo Kid]

101. The more they see him, the more they love him.

The more I see you, the more I want you
Somehow this feeling just grows and grows
With every sigh I become more mad about you
More lost without you and so it goes

Can you imagine how much I love you?
The more I see you as years go by
I know the only one for me can only be you
My arms won’t free you, and my heart won’t try

Can you imagine how much I love you?
The more I see you as years go by
I know the only one for me can only be you
My arms won’t free you, and my heart won’t try.

[stillcool]

102. It's that campaigning thing..

[Zhade]

103. Maybe because Obama's not a pathological liar like clinton?

NT!

[chyjo]

107. I love Barack Obama

But I think Hillary deserves a little credit for that too. To quote a great woman, "You just look at her and say arghh".