Pennsylvania poll shows Clinton campaign on life support

[RamboLiberal]

April 3, 2008 — The latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey shows Sen. Hillary Clinton clinging to a 2-point lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary. The telephone survey of likely registered Democratic voters, conducted April 2, has been weighted for age, race and gender. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7%. The results are:

Clinton: 45%
Obama: 43%
Undecided: 12%

InsiderAdvantage/Creators Syndicate’s Matt Towery: “This could be the beginning of the end of the Clinton campaign. The crosstabs show Obama trailing among white voters, but by only a 49%-40% margin. More importantly, Obama has a lead among African-American voters of 56%-29%, with the remainder undecided.

“It is almost impossible to imagine that the African-American vote will not consolidate to the levels we have seen in other states, which would put Obama closer to 70%-plus with blacks. Clinton would need a large, disproportionate turnout of white voters to have a real shot at pulling off a substantial win in the contest.

“Some of our previous polls in other states have shown a pattern of Clinton coming from polling deficits to eek out slim victories over Obama. We’ve seen this happen several times, with Clinton surging in the final week leading up to the vote.

http://www.internetnewsagency.com/news_detail.aspx?sid=282

I'd love to see my home state of Pennsylvania put Clinton's campaign out of its misery!

[PA Democrat]

1. I would too. And to think that my husband and I were lamenting the late date of the PA primary

back in January. Who knew our votes would still be relevant?

[Zachstar]

8. If it is Obama willing PA that ends this destructive race then I say Congrats!!!

I hope it is true. We got congressional seats to work on.

[mrJJ]

16. Not Sen Clinton

True or False?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_eBIpEuO4U

[nichomachus]

2. Undecideds hold the key

The undecideds break even across every category, except race.

15 percent of blacks are undecided and 22 percent of Hispanics.

It will be interesting to see how they split.

[ORDem]

21. Yep, the late breakers could make a huge difference, yet, it still won't

matter if Hillary doesn't get a blowout. The delegate math is insurmountable at this point. The SD gap is going to be pretty small, also by 4/22, it's only about 30 now.

:dem:

[kwenu]

3. If the Hillary campaign CODES, can we have a Do Not Resusitate Order?

[Frances]

4. I have always thought that it was important for Obama

to beat Hillary in an electorally significant swing state.

If Obama can defeat Hillary in Pennsylvania, then Obama has a much better chance of beating McCain in the general.

[Bullet1987]

5. The electoral college argument doesn't hold because no one expects

Obama to lose New York or California. And just because Clinton won Ohio and may win PA doesn't mean she'll win either in the Fall (though PA is a much better bet than Ohio).

[sandnsea]

15. Like Missouri, Wisconsin, Iowa,

Colorado, Louisiana? With ties in NH, NV, and NM? And the ability to put VA, GA, SC and MS in play?

She doesn't get to decide what is important and what isn't. Besides, HE is the one winning the traditional Democratic vote in those states anyway.

[CalGator]

18. like Virginia, Colorado, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Washington, Missouri, Iowa?

Okay, that's not one state, but they add up to more than what PA has.

[Zachstar]

6. I see a 12 percent undecided up there.

With the point that Clinton is losing support and not gaining. Parts of that 12 percent going to Obama while Clinton supporters go to Obama could mean an Obama win!!

Every day seems to make things more and more in the way of Chance for Obama winning PA!!

[Unsane]

7. She's on a free media mission tomorrow (will be on Ellen et al)

[FedoraLV]

9. Thanks for the numbers /nt

[sandnsea]

10. I think they put this out on purpose

To suppress Obama's vote.

[jenmito]

11. 5th R!

:hi:

[LadyVT]

12. We still have over TWO WEEKS to go.

[thewiseguy]

13. Enough time for Obama to take the lead and hold on to it!

[hulka38]

14. I'm a long time Obama supporter and I doubt that it's any where near 2% this quickly.

I think her lead is shrinking but this strikes me as a pollster trying to make a headline to get attention and name recognition.

[XemaSab]

17. You'd think these fools would know how to spell "eke."

:P

[jn2375]

19. Hey maybe all those Obama ads on American Idol here helped

He's all over the radio and local tv here. See and hear him everyday. Cool

[williesgirl]

20. I would LOVE to see him beat her in PA and end this nightmare. rec'd