RCP article: How Hillary might win. VERY detailed analysis.

[BzaDem]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/04/no_really_hillary_has_a_decent.html

This has a scenario where Hillary wins 100,000 of the popular vote without FL or MI, including all caucus states (and caucus estimates in the 4 caucus states that don't report vote totals). Include FL, and it's over 500,000.

[gristy]

1. And I'm supposed to spend my time reading this article?

Why?

[BzaDem]

2. If you don't want to read it, then don't read it. lol

[JoFerret]

10. Prepare for rapture

Are you actually a JFK fan?

[DemVet]

13. Not enough cartoons for you?

[VolcanoJen]

3. We need a GD:Superdelegates Forum.

Because this argument isn't being pitched to us, the piss-ant peasant rubish voters anymore. We've pretty much handed the nomination to Obama, and this argument is being pitched to, like, 300 people, rather than the 25 MILLION of us who have already voted.

It's just nauseating to me.

[BzaDem]

4. I know how the argument that your candidate might lose in total votes cast can be nauseating.

[VolcanoJen]

5. Show your math.

:shrug:

You know this link is a pitch to superdelegates to throw out the popular and pledged vote counts. You know this, and yet, you post something intended to appeal to 300 people that I could really give a shit about.

[BzaDem]

6. Did you even glance at the article?

The article provides math that shows how she MIGHT win the popular vote. Not something that is intended to appeal to 300 people that you could really give a shit about, something that shows how she might actually win the majority of votes cast.

[VolcanoJen]

14. Yes, I really did glance at the article.

It's been posted here a couple times today, maybe even by you.

It's interesting, and highly entertaining, and I like wonky stuff like this, I'll give you that much. And sure, Hillary might win the popular vote. And the Bengals might win the Super Bowl, and Bush might reach 90% popularity by the end of his term.

It could happen. Should I take the over or under in Memphis vs UCLA?

Keep Hope Alive. Nothing wrong with it. I just find it to be fodder.

[DemVet]

12. You obviously didn't read the article then.

[Seen the light]

7. Obama supporter here: Good article

I hope all other Obama supporters read it and not get lackadaisical. If you assume this race is over, Senator Clinton WILL be able to pull out the popular vote. If we do our jobs, that will be impossible. However, counting our chickens before they hatch....not smart. Get out there and continue registering people to vote in states like PA and NC and let's not let her find a way to win!

[ProSense]

8. Here's the problem with that article:

Jay's default is the 63%-of-the-Kerry vote turnout that has been the norm for closed primaries to date (and let us be clear -- this just Jay's default, not his actual judgment). I think this is unlikely to be the case.

Kerry got 4.3 million votes in 2004

The turn out for the NY primary was about 1.7 million.

Jay's scenario assumes that 200,000 more voters will participate in the PA primary than in the NY primary.

Possible, but unlikely. Jay's scenario is based on a lot of assumptions that depend on too many variables.

Here is a scenario a best case scenario based on the delegate count

[AX10]

9. K & R!

I will be working for her in PA.

[totodeinhere]

11. There are too many "ifs" in that article.

[TheDoorbellRang]

15. And LOTS of wishful thinking

Note how he says that she's only won over 60% "in a handful of states." She's won over 60% in ONE state only - Arkansas.

With Obama able to campaign heavily in all the upcoming races, I really doubt she'll be able to pull off 60% in any of the contests, which seems to factor in to a lot of his rosy Hillary scenario.

The only really dark horse in this is Puerto Rico. Wish some pollsters would get over there and do some polling. No one has absolutely any clue how it will go, and there's 55 delegates in play.

[Johnny__Motown]

16. how she might win The Popular Vote... This contest keeps score with delegates

[HooptieWagon]

17. NFL games decided by points scored, not yards gained.

Baseball decided by runs scored, not number of hits. The rules of the primary election are victory by delegates, not popular vote or electorial vote. I doubt the DNC is going to change the rules between the primaries and the convention. Chaos would ensue.

[MarjorieG]

18. All these projections don't reveal changing positions on Hillary since their primary.

Those early races were voted when few knew Obama, when absentee votes in Florida and California weren't ref;ective, and before they heard the truth about NAFTA, sniper fore, Schip, bringing peace to Ireland.

The storyline of change moved against Clinton, and they were determined to change the narrative, no matterr what.

Voting today, I don't think the popular vote would be there for her, despite this being a delegate race.