Oregon county level projections based on census demographics

[usregimechange]

Past projections

As some of you know, I have been making county level election projections about upcoming elections using census maps/data. If you have been following my projections you will remember that all of my Mississippi projections were 100% accurate:

Mississippi projections:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=4994953&mesg_id=4994953

Pennsylvania projections:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5088717

Indiana projections:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5219177

North Carolina projections:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5303475&mesg_id=5303475

Today, I have turned my attention to the state of Oregon. Below are my projections and a county-level analysis of Oregon:





Population



Multnomah County has the highest population density by far of any county in Oregon with 1,518.4 people per square mile. By contrast, the state's population density is 35.6 per square mile. Washington County, which includes the Portland suburbs and Hillsboro has the second highest population density.

The two counties are also the first and second most populated counties with 514,269 in Washington county and 681,454 in Multnomah County. It is important to note that although I am not projecting many counties for either candidate in this state the counties that have the most population I have called for Obama for the reasons discussed below.


Education



Benton county, home to Oregon State University, has the greatest percentage of educated individuals in the state at 47.4% with a Bachelors degree or higher. Washington (34.5%) and Multnomah (30.7%) counties also have a significant percentage of educated citizens. The state average is 25.1% with a Bachelors or higher and a percentage over 30% met my cutoffs for Obama.

Although I can't project Lane county for Obama it is important to note that in the middle of this county is Eugene OR, home to the University of Oregon. The city is decent sized with 142,185 people and 37.3% have a Bachelors or higher.


Race

The African American population in Oregon is mostly within a handful of census tracts in Portland:



Multnomah county has the highest percentage of African Americans in the state at 6%. The state percentage is a measly 1.9%.

The Hispanic population of Oregon is somewhat higher at 10.2%. Several counties have significant populations:



The two dark green northern counties above I was unable to call for Clinton due to demographic characteristics that also favored Obama. Morrow and Hood River County have young populations relative to the state average. However, the demographics in both should favor Clinton overall. The county I called for Clinton based on a high Latino percentage is Malheur County, which has a greater percentage of elderly folks than the state average and is 27.1% Latino.

Interestingly, Jefferson county OR has a 15.7% Native American population , the largest in the state, likely due to the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation in the northwestern portion of the county. Would they take kindly to Obama's campaign respectful recognition of Native Americans as "First Americans?" Or would they go for Hillary based on her address to the National Congress of American Indians convention? Unfortunately, exit polling data on the preferences of Native Americans is not available.


Age



Two counties in the extreme southeast of the state have significant elderly populations with over 20% 65 plus in both Josephine and Curry counties. Wheeler County also comes in with more than 20% elderly. These counties are also largely uneducated.

Washington county has the smallest density of elderly citizens (8.9% 65+), another reason why it should go for Obama. Other counties bordering the Portland area have populations less elderly than the state average.


Conclusion

Given that every county in neighboring demographically similar Washington went for Obama, that Obama tends to do well in the northwest, and that his strongholds are in the population centers of Oregon - I predict that Oregon will go solidly for Obama. Oregon votes on May 20 and it is a closed primary for registered Democrats only. The registration deadline is April 29. In Oregon you can vote by mail. The state has 65 delegates up for grabs.


Kerry's victory in 2004 by county

[FightingIrish]

1. Color Jackson County Obama

When he appeared in Medford they had to turn people away. A week later Bill Clinton couldn't fill a high school gymnasium and spoke to 500 empty seats.

[usregimechange]

2. Maybe so but the county has a higher concentration of elderly and uneducated than the state ave

But if Obama is doing well there, the whole state may go his way... The energy level there sounds promising. Thanks for contributing...

[roguevalley]

54. my county, Jackson, will go Obama. What interests me is Malheur

my uncle is the token dem there and he is an agitator. :) god bless his little heart.

[sandnsea]

3. And Lane and Benton

Probably Lincoln, Linn, Marion, Clatsop...

[usregimechange]

4. For sure Benton, Linn will likely go for him as well but I couldn't project

[here_is_to_hope]

5. Coos Too! n/t

[sandnsea]

8. I thought they may go Hillary

It seems to be a bit more "traditional" Democrats down there. Is there big excitement for Obama?

[here_is_to_hope]

45. SWOCC...

The kids are with Obama as is a good part of the local Dems, I have seen no less than 11 Obama stickers and zip Hillary.
For what its worth anyway.

[Oregone]

23. In a place where the "Women in White" outnumbered the "Women in black" 10 to 1...I don't think so.

Its going to be close. But its a very racist and right-wing area, controlled by fundementalist Christian fellowships (Applegate/Trail/Tablerock, etc)

His appearance did help his case of course.

On Edit: WIB reference is to anti-war protesters, where it was very dangerous and unpopular to do so in Medford, and pro-war women's groups emerged.

[quakerboy]

6. I am dubious of your

Curry and Josephine predictions.

I know a fair number of people down there. The demographic may seem favorable, but the overall feeling down there is conservative dominated "Clinton hate". Granted a lot of those are pub's anyway, but even the Dems that I know in the area seem to have caught it.

[woolldog]

7. I agree.

I don't think Oregon is the kind of state you can predict based on demographics. Mississippi, yes, because southern states tend to be so polarized. But not Oregon.

[usregimechange]

9. like I said, Obama may win all of OR, the projections give an indication of where each candidate is

most likely to do well.

[woolldog]

10. what are the light blue counties?

[usregimechange]

11. Counties that have demographics that do not significantly favor either candidate

[woolldog]

14. I'd like to see you predict ALL counties in a state.

That would be impressive.

[usregimechange]

16. Damn strait, it would also be prophetic.

[woolldog]

18. you wouldn't have to get them all right. just attempt to call them.

[usregimechange]

19. hummm, I may do just that...

[woolldog]

20. you can have some of the locals, like sandnsea, help you.

[quakerboy]

24. it couldnt hurt.

do a dual projection. One, just like you do it, with the relatively safe projections, and one complete run for those who dislike the uncompleteness.

[usregimechange]

27. I may need to avoid a protest.

:shrug:

[usregimechange]

37. I simply can't project more than what I already did based on demographcs

Even Lane has mixed demos. So folks, the only way I can keep this remotely scientific is to continue doing what I have done.

[thinking man]

12. Lane County

I live in Eugene, and he is extremely popular here, and in neighboring Springfield. I see Obama stickers and signs all over. Not a Hillary sign anywhere. Lane county will Go Obama, take it from A Lane Countian.

[usregimechange]

15. Eugene will go Obama I am sure of it but I decided to predict counties not cities and...

there must be some hillbillies in rural Lane because they lowered the edu average down fairly well.

[Oregone]

26. East of Springfield (Marcola) and west of Veneta there will be few Obama voters

But theyll never outnumber the city population

[usregimechange]

17. Lane is only .4% above the state average in terms of education.

[featherman]

33. I find it impossible to believe that Lane will not be strong Obama

Just impossible. It's Lane County for God's sake.

[Oregone]

29. He definately will not win all...

In reply to your "He may win All post"

Oregon is a cesspool of poverty, racism, right-wing ideology and ass backwardness in a majority of the areas of the state. You can live here decades in the large city areas and not understand the level many of these places are at without immersing yourself in one of those backwards communities for a while. Even in towns that seem larger and are nice (GP/Medford/Dallas/Newburg for example), there is a strange amount of racism brewing beneath the surface. And it stays beneath the surface. The African American population makes up less than 1% of the population in many areas so there are unspoken views about this. Some AA have told me they do not go to those areas due to a saftey factor, in this day in age. Without Eugene/Salem/Portland (and surrounding suburbs), we'd be up shit creek.

[quakerboy]

35. That is true

I have seen more confederate flags out toward Mt Hood than anywhere else in this country.

At the same time, these same places, at least in my experience, seem to hate the mythology of "Clinton". The "first black president" and all that. AA is a predominantly whispered dislike there, where Clinton is a curseword there. So, I have a hard time seeing it all working to her favor there.

[me b zola]

56. All of that is true

However, there is a local conservative radio talk show personality calling for the same shenanigans that rush used in previous primaries. The problem then becomes attempting to factor in how much of that irrational hate of the Clintons will translate into an irrational hate/fear of Obama enough to get them to register and vote for Clinton to screw with the Democratic primary. :crazy: They know Clinton has no chance, so they are willing to sacrifice their vote to assist Hillary in screwing up the GE. :mad:

I'm so tired of this shit. I have stopped calling for Clinton to do the right thing and get out, but truly I am so tired of this needless shit.

[usregimechange]

13. Remember too, OR is a mail in state, energy in a caucus means everything but in a mail in primary...

also, I am trying to be objective here. ;-)

[quakerboy]

21. I understand.

It is possible that your projection may play out. But, as I said, I am dubious. All I am hearing from my more rural/small town friends and family is Clinton hate. In town, it seems to be a mix of Obama supporters and undecided. But those out toward the "red areas" are relatively indifferent to, perhaps curious about Obama, and actively despise Clinton(I use that because that is how they, so a person, refer to her, with extreme scorn carried over from the 90's)

[Oregone]

22. Everything East of Cascades goes Clinton. Shell also have Polk barring hispanic switching to Obama

Jackson is probably going to be 50/50. His appearance was huge there, and Ashland will go for him, but Medford is very racist.

[featherman]

34. Sorry... I live here. There is not much enthusiasm for Clinton

Who are these Clinton voters in Oregon? Raise your hands. The very similar northern California counties like Siskiyou went very definite for Obama. Oregon is a stone cold lock for Obama

[Arugula Latte]

51. It's interesting. I'm in Portland, and almost everyone I know is for Obama.

However, the only exception to that seems to be two sets of Caucasian gay women couples we are friends with. Everyone else ... solidly Obama.

On edit: Demo breakdown of the "almost everyone" I refer to is many straight, married late 30s/early 40s couples with children; some unmarried straights living together; a few straight singles; a few older straight "empty nesters." This being Oregon, they are primarily Caucausian.

[usregimechange]

55. Interesting, GOTV!

[XemaSab]

38. Up in Washington Obama won EVERY county

West AND East of the Cascades.

He did very, very well in Idaho and northern Nevada, and fairly well in Jefferson.

I think Obama's going to blow it out in Oregon.

[usregimechange]

39. If he wins in the counties I projected for Clinton, he will win the entire state and he may

WA was an example, he won among folks that have tended to support her.

[Oregone]

25. I predict Obama will carry Lane by at least 10 points.

nt

[woolldog]

28. when do Oregonians start mailing in their ballots?

[Oregone]

30. Most don't

Were just excited to have paper instead of leaves for help in disposing our excrement.

[woolldog]

32. what?

[quakerboy]

36. Ha

Not too much makes me actualy laugh (out loud even) but that did. you win my personal post of the day award.

[XemaSab]

40. Hey, the oldest shit in North America is from Oregon

:patriot:

[grantcart]

31. I would be surprised if he doesn't take Marion County

actually I will be surprised if he doesn't take every county in the state.

How many counties did he take in Idaho and Washington?


Nice job again

[XemaSab]

41. Between Idaho and Washington Obama won 82 out of 83 counties.

:D

The only county Hillary won was Lewis County, Idaho, where she got 10 of the 17 democratic votes cast in the county. :P

[usregimechange]

42. Next time I am including a disclaimer saying that projection based on demos do not allow me to...

predict the future with 100% accuracy... Also that the number of yard signs observed by one person is not an accurate objective predictor of who will win.

[Alter Ego]

43. Shit, if it's possible to win the state with so few counties

how many people LIVE in the red ones? 10 each?

[usregimechange]

47. Just about!

[davidpdx]

44. Interesting

I grew up in Jackson and Josephine Counties. My mom is still in Jackson County (Medford) and is an Obama supporter.

It would shock me a little if Josephine County went for Clinton. Yes, there are a large number of people will a low educational level and a very low number of minorities. I agree with you about Jackson County, there is a larger number of people and a little more diverse. Give Medford another few years and it will be a metropolitan area (which is over 100,000).

Overall interesting stuff, I'll have to print it out and take a closer look. It's always more fun to look at this kind of thing on paper rather then a computer screen.

[Ysabel]

46. thanks again interesting yes i like these threads k and r (n/t)...

[hogwyld]

48. Obama's going to win Yamhill Co.

A lot of educated professionals in the area, also the wine country of the north! O'Bama's (pun intended) going to dominate the area west of the Cascades.

[usregimechange]

53. Yamhill has fewer educated people than the state average but I will take your word

for it that there be wine thera.

[BumRushDaShow]

49. K&R!

Thanks for yet another thorough analysis!

:kick:

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

50. Lane will go for Obama.

You know what? I think it'll be like Washington.

With every single county going for Obama.

[usregimechange]

52. That would be friggin deluctable!