MYTH: ANTI-HILLARY BLOGS TANKING ..Debunked.

[DerekJ]

Americablog.com, CNN, MSNBC , and DAILYKOS are all having steady traffic with no decrease in web visitors whatsoever. On the contrary some of them like dailykos has gained more visitors.

Alexa.com is the ultimate authority on website rankings. In my own line of work, we depend on it a lot.

Here are some graphs, and stats to show how they have been performing over the past three month.




steady graph with no significant ups or downs




Daily Kos actually had a good three month and increased in popularity

[DerekJ]

1. Ah, and americablog, is up 15%. and doing better than it's average over the past week

[BumRushDaShow]

2. OMG the facts!

I thought hearsay and innuendo were facts. :sarcasm:

:kick:

[DerekJ]

4. I hate facts, they are sexist. :)

[joeprogressive]

3. k/r n/t

[DerekJ]

5. For those how might wonder about the reason for this post, here is the post I was responding to:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5379196

[Orsino]

46. Attempts at analyzing random noise can be amusing.

People see Jesus in their toast, too.

[joshcryer]

6. You picked the three month chart to 'prove' your point.

If you look at the last month in all of those charts the trend is obviously downward.

Statistics lie, and you showed how you can characterize them to lie for you.

March is a downward trend, your own damn graph shows it.

[Perry Logan]

7. Logan's Law: All anti-Clinton posts are bullshit.

[Alexander]

56. Yep, can't bear to read anything that doesn't worship Queen Hillary, can you?

[DerekJ]

8. You know I like you joshcryer, and I do so because I really think you are sincere about your support

for Hillary, and that you don't have ulterior motives. However, if you start calling me a liar, you better have some shit to back yourself up.

The dip at in the graph at the end is shared by all sites, including Hillary’s supporters site mydd.com, it's an insignificant dip. And the reason of this dip is nothing more than the primaries is pretty much on hold right now.

Look at the 1 week average for dailykos, it's included in the stats pic. It's a positive number not a negative one. Which means during the last week, the site didn't lose nay users but gained some more.

Holidays, weekends, and summers, causes some dips in all sites.

This is my work Joshcryer, so trust me you will lose this argument.

[joshcryer]

9. I'm not arguing why the dip is there, I'm only observing that it is there.

You were trying to 'debunk' the dip.

[DerekJ]

10. And I explained, you can't look at 1 day dip. A weekend, or a holiday can

cause a minor dip.

Here is the graph for mydd.com ( A Hillary site) on 1 month average:




Do you see the dip at the end? They all have that slight dip in the last week, for no other reason than the primaries is not as heated.

if they lost 20% or 30% of their traffic over a significant period, the green arrow will quickly change to red.

[joshcryer]

12. You do this for a living DerekJ? Rank is based on a mean of 3 months.

Then it's extropolated for that view, so if you're comparing to other sites the graph gets smoother (which would be the case if your comparison added the other two sites).

A better view would be to look at page views and reach for that period of time if you're just going to look at one site in particular.

The trend is downward, we'll see it is becomes an actual trend, but you can't deny it's there and affects those sites more than mydd.com

[DerekJ]

15. I can't belive this.

First of all, I just showed you mydd.com taking the same dip over the course of last week on a 1 month average. The dip in all of those sites are by no means 20 - 30%.

Second, if you look at that dip in all of those sites, it went right back up to almost the same levels at both dailykos, and mydd at the end of the week.

Third: Look at the god damn 1 week average. it's positive 0.025% which means the last week had a net gain not loss, how could it be a negative trend?!!!

Fourth: Look at the traffic rank for today which is 4,524 which is only slightly worse then their 3 month average, and better than their week average. Again that's because this week has no active primaries. Mydd has the same trend. The week of April 22nd expect those numbers to go much higher.

Fifth: the only thing that went down slightly was their page views, which is still far more superior than mydd of 2.7, and only an indicative of how deep does the visitors go on dailykos. It; shas nothing to do with the number of visitors.


Sixth: mydd has a traffic ranking of 40K + , dailykos has a traffic ranking of 4k +, which means they receive hundreds of thousands of users more, than mydd.com

[joshcryer]

32. I don't think you understand how the geometric mean is calculated.

It's averaged over a 3 month period thus useless for a 1 month trend. You chose it because it fits your anaylsis, but websites don't go "up and down" in such large numbers as the reach and page views show (I meant over a daily basis).

But if you look at page views for the sites in question it's obvious that they are being hit harder by the downtrend than mydd.com.

Much harder.

Please explain how a 3 month geometric mean applies to a 1 month trend.

Like I said we won't know if the trend holds out!

[DerekJ]

35. Ok I am honestly starting to get pissed off at you...

You dimwit, you couldn't even calculate 12+12 = 24 in another post. I just gave you in other posts 1 month average
Look at fucking post number 17 , you stupid moron.

Each graph point represents a day in the 3 month period. Then the average is calculated. You can watch the trend daily. His current status is the same as his normal status. He peaks during primaries to come back down during normal days. If you can’t understand that then I don't know what else I can say.

Don't go fucking Google words you don't understand.




D you fucking see how the site dipped after the January primaries, then after the February primaries, then after the march primaries To go to NORMAL levels. There is no geometric means in this graph, it's a day by day snapshot added to it. The average is summed and added to the 3 month average table.

You are a moron who doesn’t know fucking shit about it, yet you are arguing.

Do you know how to even plot a graph?!!

I am an Electrical Engineer fuck face, I know damn well what I am looking at, and I know damn well what I am talking about. You are not going to tell me what are geometric means, when I like to play with Fourier series to waste my time

[joshcryer]

61. Get pissed off all you want. You posted upthread a 1 month 'rank.'

That post was completely assinine. You're trying to change the subject. We're looking at a one month trend here. Then you chose to use rank because it fits your perceptions, when the site itself says that rank is calculated on a 3 month trend via a geometric mean. This is why when you compare sites at the 1 month leve over the trend the rank smooths out.

You haven't refuted anything I have said.

[DerekJ]

11. I am now waiting for your apology

:)

[joshcryer]

13. For what?

Me being right? :D

[DerekJ]

17. Look at this graph josh.

http://www.alexa.com/data/details/traffic_details/dailykos.com



Do you see how they go right up during the primary contest days, then right back down to normal levels in between? That's what's happening right now. Dailykos is at NORMAL levels.

They are actually higher now, than what they were in January. Look at the beginning and end of the graph.

BTW, I am an electrical engineer (although, working in a different field right now), I know damn well how to read graphs.

[DerekJ]

21. Still waiting for that apology :)

[Coexist]

39. I hope you brought provisions.

[DerekJ]

40. I stacked my fridge :)

[Tarheel_Dem]

42. he is one smug blankety blank....

thanks for your work on this DerekJ

[DerekJ]

45. You're welcome Tarheel_Dem

[joshcryer]

64. You guys just don't see what the OP did, is all.

:hi:

[hogwyld]

34. One thing not mentioned in the graph drop

Is that it correlates perfectly with spring break.

[DerekJ]

37. The graph drops after each primary to go to normal levels. In post number 17 you will see the spikes

during the elections, to go back to normal levels. Actually by the end of March, he had a lot more visitors then he had in January.

[InsultComicDog]

16. a one month chart would also be deceptive though

The biggest event of the primary season was at the beginning of February. March would never live up to that. April will be less yet because it's only Pennsylvania. Less big events are going to generate less hits at all of the largest politics news sites and all of the largest sites that blog about politics.

Determining a trend in either direction from the last few months is all spin. Sure, some smaller blogs are going to spike if they meet a temporary demand to cover a particular point of view, or maybe these are trends rather than spikes - but we can't possibly know. It's like trying to judge the NFL draft on any given year after the first 3 games of the season.

[DerekJ]

19. I explained that to him in post #17. I hope he gets it this time.

If during elections you are ranked 5, and during regular time you are ranked 3, assuming that election time, and no election time are about the same duration, your average becomes 4 ((5+3)/2). If you are now at 3 does that mean you are losing visitors?!! No, It means you are back to normal.

dailykos actually has gained visitors, because their ranking during "normal" time in March is higher than their ranking during their normal time in January.

[joshcryer]

33. I didn't say it had much merit, I even said it was probably overblown in the other thread.

I was pointing out that the OP was acting as if previous trends automatically meant future trends.

You look at the polling between Hillary and Obama. Obama is trending up, Hillary down.

But look! In the past Hillary was polling up and Obama down! The 'trend' is that Hillary wins the election because after this one the primaries are over and she wins all the next contests!

Such extropolations are wrong, but that's what the OP was doing.

Yes it's probably likely that the trend does exist and it is related to the primary season.

That does not negate the fact that there is a dip in these sites significantly bigger than the other sites.

That potentially the trend *might be different.*

[DerekJ]

38. Why are you ignoring post number 17 if you don't like how the graph looks?

Why are you ignoring the 1 month graph?!

[joshcryer]

63. What 1 month graph?

The one that uses the geometric mean all by itself to 'prove' that there's not a trend, when that graph is based on a 3 month stat?

Please be honest here, you know you were trying to manipulate the data by posting the graph you wanted.

[OzarkDem]

26. You are correct!

[DerekJ]

29. Who is correct?!!!

I gave 1 month averages, and 1 week averages. You are not as influential as you think you are.

Check post number 17.

[tabasco]

41. LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.

"Statistics lie."

The post trying to show the "liberal left" blogs falling off is a perfect example.

[DerekJ]

43. Unbelievable, he googled couple of sentences, he doesn’t even know what they mean, and he thinks he

knows better.

[TheDoorbellRang]

47. Josh, all these sites were up January thru early March

correlating with the primary season. They'll all spike back up again April 22. It really has nothing to do with pro or anti Hillary.

[LSK]

65. a study size of 1 proves your point???

:rofl:

[jefferson_dem]

14. Why do you hate Hillary/Women/'Merca?

:shrug:

[ChairmanAgnostic]

18. yeah! and relying on those fact things is so unfair, too!

[JayFredMuggs]

44. Facts are so REALLY unfair to Hillary

Those facts must be sexist. We shouldn't have facts getting in the way of Hillary's desire to move back to Pennsylvania Ave.

She's "ENTITLED"!

[ForeignSpectator]

66. YES BABY, she is!! n/t

[DerekJ]

20. self kick

[Scurrilous]

22. Thanks DerekJ.

K & R :thumbsup:

[DerekJ]

23. Any time :)

[Window]

24. But, but Lulu said...nevermind.

[mod mom]

25. Thank you for debunking. I hardly went to Kos before this but recently found

myself willing to put up with there lay out for the content! Glad to hear it debunked.

[DerekJ]

27. another self-kick .. some still think it's true

[TheDoorbellRang]

49. I've noticed a strong correlation

between whose supporters understand and can do math and whose supporters can't. :rofl:

[quantass]

28. k&r

[Bullet1987]

30. The thing is...there's nothing pro-Obama about CNN and MSNBC

[tabasco]

31. Good info.

I love the way the Hillary supporter in the BS post screeches about the "liberal left."

Good luck keeping up with the anti-liberal trolls, who keep their deceptive posts kicked.

[hogwyld]

36. Kick for the truth! n/t

[kid a]

48. saw that thread - glad i didn't kick. This is kick worthy and a rec for facts

:hi:

[HCE SuiGeneris]

50. K & R

[anonymous171]

51. K&R

:kick:

[anonymous171]

53. kick

:kick:

[FrenchieCat]

52. So, that other thread is just propaganda made up of whole cloth?

geeze!

They'll do anything to think they are winning!

[slinkerwink]

59. silly Hillary supporters

[Robeson]

54. kick.

[anonymous171]

55. kick

:kick:

[NC_Nurse]

57. kick

[Scurrilous]

58. Kick

:kick:

[featherman]

60. Kick for the truth

[H2O Man]

62. Nominated.

Thank you.

[guyanakoolaid]

67. Reality has a well-known anti-Hillary bias

But seriously, to see her supporters cling to an argument when that argument's facts and logic have run their course is no different from Clinton herself. How many chances did she get to retract the Bosnia story? What kind of bridge-building does this hard-headedness bring?

[DerekJ]

68. kick

[DerekJ]

69. kick for the idiots in here

[DerekJ]

70. A much easier graph for the math impaired.

HE IS GAINING YOU FUCKING MORONS

In April he had 4 million visitors in 3 days, that's almost 40 million at the ned of the month, meaning in April he is even doing better than march.


http://www.sitemeter.com/?a=stats&s=sm8dailykos&r=36

[DerekJ]

71. self kick

[Political Heretic]

72. K&R