CNN: Dean Trails Bush by Only 5 Points

[unfrigginreal]

Bush +5 over Dean
Bush +10 over Clark
Bush +10 over Kerry

Sorry no link yet...just reported on CNN.

Also earlier they reported that Dean held 22 point lead for nomination. Dean beat each of his opponents in a head to head with Clark coming closest at 14 points.

EDITED: To Add Blog Entry

http://blog.deanforamerica.com/archives/002928.html

Inside Politics reports on a new CNN/Time Poll of 1,004 adult Americans conducted by telephone on December 30 and January 1. Despite constant attacks from the inside-the-beltway pundits and campaigns, who keep charging that Dean is "unelectable," he now trails George Bush by a mere 5 points -- 51% to 46%.

Just to put that into perspective: in April of 1992, Bill Clinton trailed George H.W. Bush by 20 points.

This morning, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reported that the other campaigns are now trying to use cell phones to try to prevent Dean from winning the Iowa caucuses:

Bill Carrick, one of Gephardt's advisers, said a Gephardt win is important in stopping Dean, or at least slowing him down. So other presidential hopefuls may be willing to throw last-minute support to Gephardt in the caucuses. The Gephardt campaign has even floated the idea of the non-Dean campaigns using cellphones to coordinate voting within the caucuses. "Every one of them needs us to win," Carrick said.
And if you're wondering why the other campaigns would work together to defeat Dean, it's because none of them seem able to do it on their own. CNN's poll looks at hypothetical head-to-head pairings that test what will happen when the race is winnowed down, and against any one of the candidates, Dean wins:

Dean vs. Clark: 46% to 32%
Dean vs. Lieberman, 50% to 32%
Dean vs. Kerry, 51% to 29%
Dean vs. Gephardt 53% to 28%

[Jack_Dawson]

1. Taken from a sample of 20

These polls are getting more and more suspect.

[WillyT]

16. Sample Of 20 ??? --- Where Did You Get That ???

"Inside Politics reports on a new CNN/Time Poll of 1,004 adult Americans conducted by telephone on December 30 and January 1."

That's what I Read.

C'Mon Jack, I think you've been floatin around the North Atlantic on that piece of wood a bit too long, LOL!!!

:shrug:

[Jack_Dawson]

25. LOL

She got the wood...I got the freezing cold water. Great deal for me.

[burning bush]

88. You know Jack...

Rose could have scooted her big keister over and shared that board. If I were you, I'd be a little miffed.

She got the wood, the gem, the coat, the whistle, and the damn story rights.

What the heck did you get?

[slinkerwink]

24. sample of 1,000

sour grapes, eh? What kind are you eating? White or purple grapes? ;-)

[TexasPatriot]

70. its not 20...

the poll had 399 registered voters who say they are Democrats - so the subgroup +/- margins are probabaly in the 6/7 range.

only thing the dean folks should be wary of in trumpeting the poll is that Dean came back at 22% against the field - so that number has shrunk a little, though from the 1 on 1 matchups he seems to pick it back up as the field thins.

i wonder if this will encourage any campaigns to close up shop.

[Capn Sunshine]

75. at least yOu are consistent

sample of 20 LMAO it would have worked just as well at 100. Try to be more believable

[CMT]

2. What Dean is running best against Bush???

There we go again. These things are up and down. Some polls Dean is running slightly worse than Clark vs. Bush and in others he is running slightly better than Clark. Dean is just as electable as any other Democrat running and maybe more so.

[wryter2000]

3. Those are nice numbers

For all three candidates. Good to see!

[auntpattywatty]

4. Look at my signature

[madfloridian]

38. Good one, pattywatty.

:hi:

[ozone_man]

59. Like when Bush I had a 90% approval rating.

Fades fast when the electorate gets serious, and in 2004 I think they're going to get serious.

Love your handle, BTW.

[placton]

5. Here's what's great!

Dems will VOTE to nominate a candidate. Yes, voting the old fashioned way. The person with THE MOST VOTES (on a state by state basis) will be NOMINATED. This is unlike the GOP system.

Once we nominate someone, the sniping will stop and we can begin to defeat Bush.

[YEM]

6. I hope that comes quick.

[Bill McBlueState]

7. encouraging

I think the numbers for all those candidates are closer than they were a few weeks ago. We're gonna kick ass, whoever's nominated!

B-)

[madfloridian]

8. Lieberman told Candi Crowley that HE was 5 points behind Bush.

Just a few minutes ago. He said according to the CNN poll. Is it up at the site.

He tore into Dean unmercifully, and he sounded just like a Republican.

[Jack_Dawson]

11. Lieberman needs to go away

You are not going to win. Step aside. Please. Do the right thing.

[Padraig18]

61. Joe needs Vallium...

It's sad to watch... :shrug:

[CTLawGuy]

9. ...

Clark supporter:

NOOOO, NOOOOO, I'M MELTING...MELLLLTING!!! My argument is gone!

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

104. ...with the wind.

[bearfartinthewoods]

10. we are soooo screwed

.

[flpoljunkie]

14. CNN/Time poll has Dean 22%, Kerry 10%, Lieberman 9%...

Evidently, Kerry comes in second at 10%, as Paul Begala said Dean's 12 points ahead of his nearest competitor.

This is good news for Kerry, I would think.

[CMT]

17. so where is Clark?

is he running fourth?

[unfrigginreal]

23. Yes. Clark in 4th at 8%

a 4 point drop for him from the same poll in November.

[slinkerwink]

29. ouch.......

sounds like Clark's definitely not ready for big time politics....better start running for dogcatcher first ;-)

[ozone_man]

81. Ouch, ouch, ... how about something that he's qualified for

like secretary of defense.

[dsc]

15. In reference to your sig line

I am glad for the sake of blacks we didn't depend on people like you for civil rights. I am glad for the sake of gays that they don't have to depend on the likes of you for their rights. I am glad for the sake of the poor and dispossesed that they aren't depending on the likes of you. After all popularity is important.

[TLM]

21. ONly like 35% were for civil unions in Vermont...

Dean not only got it passed, but won reelection as well.

So the argument is poop.


While it is true that some folks would prefer a pro-war candidate, dean is not anti-war, he's anti-war without justification... which is a whole different situation. And just because someone might disagree with Dean on an issue, doesn't mean they won't vote for him because of other issues.



I mean he's only 5 f-ing points behind Bush and the campaign hasn't even started yet. Gore was like 20 points behind Bush when his campaign started.



We're going to win...

[bearfartinthewoods]

43. yeah...but first he got elected.....

isn't that what we are talking about?

[bearfartinthewoods]

42. and just how many of those injustices do you think will be addressed

in four more years of bush?

the rough thing about popularity is you have to be popular to get elected. so do you want to be right or get the presidency?

[goobergunch]

18. How are we screwed?

We're only 5 points behind Bush* when barely anybody has payed attention yet!

[TLM]

22. Maybe by "we" he was refering to

status quo establishment bush-light dems?

[slinkerwink]

46. exactamundo....

;-)

[bearfartinthewoods]

54. unlike some people, to me, a dem is a dem at election time.

[Padraig18]

56. Same here, bearfartinthewoods

The worst Democrat running is orders of magniture better than Shrub!

:dem:

[stickdog]

30. By telling the truth.

A radical concept, to be sure.

[Gore1FL]

144. Why?

These are good numbers at this time.

[madfloridian]

12. Here is what is on the Dean blog about the poll.

Just posted there.

http://www.blogforamerica.com/

CNN: Dean Trails Bush by Only 5 Points
Inside Politics reports on a new CNN/Time Poll of 1,004 adult Americans conducted by telephone on December 30 and January 1. Despite constant attacks from the inside-the-beltway pundits and campaigns, who keep charging that Dean is "unelectable," he now trails George Bush by a mere 5 points -- 51% to 46%.

Just to put that into perspective: in April of 1992, Bill Clinton trailed George H.W. Bush by 20 points.

This morning, the Atlanta Journal Constitution reported that the other campaigns are now trying to use cell phones to try to prevent Dean from winning the Iowa caucuses:

Bill Carrick, one of Gephardt's advisers, said a Gephardt win is important in stopping Dean, or at least slowing him down. So other presidential hopefuls may be willing to throw last-minute support to Gephardt in the caucuses. The Gephardt campaign has even floated the idea of the non-Dean campaigns using cellphones to coordinate voting within the caucuses. "Every one of them needs us to win," Carrick said.
And if you're wondering why the other campaigns would work together to defeat Dean, it's because none of them seem able to do it on their own. CNN's poll looks at hypothetical head-to-head pairings that test what will happen when the race is winnowed down, and against any one of the candidates, Dean wins:

Dean vs. Clark: 46% to 32%
Dean vs. Lieberman, 50% to 32%
Dean vs. Kerry, 51% to 29%
Dean vs. Gephardt 53% to 28%

[JNelson6563]

19. Wow! Great!

:-)

[madfloridian]

13. We must have posted the poll from there at the same time.

:hi:

[slinkerwink]

20. that's great news!

:bounce: Dean IS more electable than anybody else!

[shivaji]

91. Good to see what I believed is coming true

Can't wait till NH & Iowa are in LOL

[Hoppin_Mad]

26. More good news for Dean and his supporters ! Yee Haw ! -eom-

[Cheswick2.0]

27. So he does better against Bush than Clark does.....hmmmmm

I think some people are going to need a new talking point.

This is great news! I could not be more optimistic.

[JVS]

135. We could use the new talking point

come on, say it, "Clark is unelectable" ahhh doesn't that feel good? Let them reap what they have sown!

[Gore1FL]

145. But the poll indicates otherwise

The top few are ALL in striking distance.

None of them are unelectable.

[BootinUp]

28. So lets throw out every other poll now.

This is ridiculous.

[stickdog]

32. Yes, let's.

At this point, the bs "electability" argument is DOA.

But don't worry, Clark supporters. If you & the General will just play nice, there just might be a spot for him on the ticket.

[bain_sidhe]

74. It's posts like this and

slinkerwink's that make me want to be ABD. Just thought you'd like to know that you're not doing your candidate any favors with your snarky remarks. Not that you care, of course, jes' sayin.

[Guaranteed]

101. Dean supporters take the most

crap out of anybody here.

His victory is going to be very, very sweet.

[CMT]

33. not every other poll

there have been others that have shown Dean doing better than Clark vs. Bush including the last NBC news poll last month, but these seem to get forgotten very easily.

[BootinUp]

37. I have watched polls this year more than before

and the only thing I'm learning is 1000 respondents nationwide doesn't mean much.

Even State polls have a lot of noise, but you are taking more samples from a smaller population so they have to be better assuming similar methods.

I use statistics in my job every day, though I won't claim to be an expert in them. But I think I can recognize garbage when I see it.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

105. ...but they're OK to say Calrk is more "electable" than Dean?

Can't have it both ways.

[BootinUp]

106. I think my post was pretty clear

I don't trust these national polls for much of any reliable information. That goes nine ways. :)

I don't want to get into electability right now, but if I did I wouldn't rely on national polls.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

109. How about regional polls?

:D

[slinkerwink]

124. don't try using logic......

;-) it hurts them...

[TheWebHead]

31. anyone see Crossfire beat up on Dean?

I thought Begala was tougher on Jim Moran than Novak.. the DLC friendly crowd is really going all-out. Balanced debate be damned :(

[unfrigginreal]

34. Yep.

You should have seen Candi Crowley and Bill Schneider when they announced the poll results, I thought they were going to cry. :D

[mouse7]

93. I want a copy of the tape!

Crowley and Schneider are so neo-con.

[TheWebHead]

125. transcript link:

http://www.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0401/02/cf.00.html

[Green4Dean]

35. If the DLC wasn't attacking dean, I would probably be supporting Kucinich

I am not letting phony democrats pick the nominee again...take the party back from the DLC...Dean is the vehicle!!!

[mzmolly]

36. Yea, I see it all the time...

the polls are poetic justic though. specially this one :)

[Fleshdancer]

39. This is great news for ALL Democrats!

The numbers against Bush are great! The Dean blog puts it in perspective: "in April of 1992, Bill Clinton trailed George H.W. Bush by 20 points."

For Dean to trail Bush by just 5 pts and Clark and Kerry to trail by just 10 points is something to celebrate!

Once we have our nominee in place, we have to work hard at solidifying this party. We'll have the help of MoveOn, the internet, and possibly the largest Democratic GOTV in history. Even moderate conservatives are starting to question Bush's sanity.

Can this party pull Greens and DLCers together this time? ABB??

[Rose Siding]

136. And this is with clown prince's rebound #'s

We're going to send a Democrat to the WH

[NewJerseyDem]

40. Drudge has the poll numbers

The margin of error is 3.1% so Dean and Lieberman are both within the margin of error with Bush. However, the poll numbers for each of the democrats are also within the margin of error of one another.

http://www.drudgereport.com/flash.htm

Bush over Dean 51% to 46%,

Bush over Lieberman 52% to 46%,

Bush over Kerry 54% to 43%,

Bush over Gephardt 53% to 44%,

Bush over Clark 53% to 43%,

Bush over North Carolina Sen. John Edwards 53% to 43%.`

[CMT]

47. taking off my partisan hat for a minute

that is tremendous news for all of our candidates to be within ten or even eleven points of an incumbent president this early and with the media whoring for him over Iraq (Saddam capture) and the "improving" economy.

[worldgonekrazy]

41. Holy sh*t!

Wow, that is really great news. Five points behind at this point is unheard of! Victory is assured.

[Fleshdancer]

44. only if we work our butts off

as wonderful as this is, I imagine the Bush campaign is seeing red. We need to brace ourselves for what Bush's puppetmasters have planned.

[Walt Starr]

45. Dean's the man!

He'll get the job done!

[killbotfactory]

48. Bush is toast...

Do "popular war-time presidents" usually poll only 5 points ahead of the opposition?

Can't wait to see Dean kick those assholes out to the Whitehouse curb.

[Padraig18]

49. Sorta shoots the 'unelectable' meme right in the head, doesn't it?

WOO HOO!

:bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce::bounce:

[slinkerwink]

50. heh, that it does....

*cocks back gun* now.....I'm just waiting to show Bush the door out of the White House with over 500,000 Democrats in Nov.2004....

[Padraig18]

52. We're gonna win in November

I feel it in my bones. :)

[slinkerwink]

82. shiver me timbers! *pirate growl*

;-)

[SahaleArm]

51. In the Dec-16th CNN/Gallup Poll...

Bush led Dean 60-37; in the two weeks since Bush has lost nine and Dean has gained nine (51-46). What happened in the last two weeks that caused the jump? The numbers are outside of MOE so it's not statisical variation. The Democratic numbers seem to match other polls with Dean holding on to about 25% of the Democrats and everyone else fighting for 10%.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[BootinUp]

53. Americans had a crappy Christmas evidently :shrug:

[KaraokeKarlton]

55. A temporary drop for Dean should have been expected then

Due to Saddam being caught. A lot of people thought it would kill his campaign. Then he came out with a phenomenal foreign policy speech and didn't back down or let the pundits define him, everyone calmed down and got over the initial emotional reaction.

I suspect Dean's numbers will continue to look better and better against Bush. Hell, he might even pass him before too much longer. :D

[unfrigginreal]

57. I think that you're looking at it wrong

The numbers that you are citing were polled immediately after Mission Accomplished II. Bush received an overnight 10 point approval increase. There was no way that he could hold it. From an article about the poll that you are citing:

Among poll respondents interviewed Monday and Tuesday, 63 percent said they approved of Bush's job performance, while 34 percent disapproved. The approval rating is Bush's highest since June and is a significant gain over his rating of 50 percent a month ago.

By contrast, in a poll done Thursday to Saturday, before news of the capture broke, Bush's approval was 54 percent, with 43 percent expressing disapproval.

[SahaleArm]

72. Subsequent polls confirmed those numbers though...

Newsweek (Dec 18-19), ABC/Wa-Post (Dec 18-21), and CBS (Dec 21-22) all confirmed a sizeable advantage, anywhere from 13-20 point differential for Bush. These were taken a couple days after the capture and after Dean's comments on the capture. After Christmas/New Year we have the gap of five points with little news to explain the gap closing. Subsequent polls will be telling as to whether the bump was just that or not.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm

[farmbo]

80. Saddam was "captured" on the 14th...but the war didn't end.

The poll on the 16th was a temporary aberration.

[Walt Starr]

58. With news like that, in a few months everybody on DU

will ne NBD!

:evilgrin:

[ozone_man]

64. *cough* nbd.

:)

[Padraig18]

60. Kick

:dem:

[bain_sidhe]

62. How come Lieberman does so good?

Not to discount your good news, kudos and all that, but I'm surprised that Lieberman did so well in this poll - basically the same support as Dean, but one of the "not sure" went to Bush...

(I'm speaking of the CNN/Time numbers shown at Polling Report http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm )

Bush: 51%
Dean: 46%
Not Sure: 3%

Bush: 52%
Lieberman: 46%
Not Sure: 2%

Regardless of any of the other numbers, I don't get it. Why? Lieberman and Dean couldn't be more different, IMHO.

**edit for typo**

**two of them, in fact!**

[Padraig18]

65. Name recognition. n/t

[bain_sidhe]

69. Must be...

I'm assuming they asked the *same* 604 people about each candidate, and I can't see Lieberman supporters going for Dean and vice versa. Of course, either of them are better than Bush. But if that were the reason for the "equal support," all the other candidates would *also* be at the same 46%, and they're not. So you're probably right, it must be the name recognition. Still seems weird. I wish they'd included an "any Democrat" question for reference/comparison.

**edit. typo. 'nuff said.**

[ozone_man]

73. Both Republicans.

That's why we have two parties with separate nominations, so that we don't elect two Republicans. As flawed as it is, it sort of works.

[tedoll78]

63. Things I Take Away From These Numbers:

1) The 'Dean is unelectable' argument for other candidates is seriously weakened.

2) Bush is in trouble. 5%? After a year with that kind of economic growth, a decent Christmas financially, the capture of a madman, etc? Our base is on fire right now, which will give our nominee more comfort in moving to the middle.

3) Dean is the only person who can really deny himself the nomination. He has to screw-up now. We see this in the head-to-head numbers. It should be pretty evident by now that attacks are futile, and are actually motivators for Dean supporters. He's like a video game boss that gains strength when you attack him.. very weird.

4) Other candidates (and their supporters) should see the writing on the wall and run cleaner campaigns. Please note that I am NOT advocating that they drop-out before the votes are cast. They should know now that they can't hurt Dean much. And knowing this, they should go more positively and not hurt each other. Hurting each other at this point only hurts the party, and ultimately the country.

5) At the same time, Dean needs to be a bit more gentlemanly toward his nomination competitors, and toward the establishment. The word 'class' comes to mind. We are all going to need each other.

6) If Dean does get the nod, he should probably consider picking one of the other eight for party unity's sake as his running mate. This is one advantage that we do have over Bush - we get to hold the country with suspense over who the VP will be.

7) Dean supporters must not get complacent. And supporters of other candidates shouldn't get despondent. We should all train our aims on the Chimp.. when we blast-away at him together, the media is forced to look at these complaints, and the Chimp's numbers come down.

8) Unity. Unity. Unity..

[ozone_man]

78. I was think more along the lines of Obiwan Kenobi.

"If you strike me down now, I shall become more *powerful* than you can possibly imagine."

He's like a video game boss that gains strength when you attack him.. very weird.

[Upfront]

86. Great Post TEdoll78

Your thinking seems sound to me. Hope more people agree. Go Dr. Dean!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Guaranteed]

103. Yes, good post.

As for your fourth point, I think it's extremely important to point out that the other campaigns really began catching fire when they were attacking BUSH, not Dean.

I should know- as a Dean supporter, the only thing that caught my eye about the other candidates was when they gained the courage to speak up against Bush. It actually DID make my support waver. However, when the RODs went back to their pre-war positions after catching Saddam, it just reconfirmed my support of Dean.

I ain't moving anymore, either.

[hellhathnofury]

66. Great news. Karl must be worried.

[jumptheshadow]

67. It's still early

Based on this conclusion from the poll:

>>Only 1-in-4 (25%) are paying "very close" attention to the 2004 presidential election right now. Another 22 percent are paying "fairly close" attention, and 25 percent are paying "some" attention, while 17 percent are paying "just a little" attention.<<

We still have a very fluid situation. And it could turn on a dime, based on world events.

[Rose Siding]

68. That's right. ANY of them could beat bush

and they should all learn how to say so.

[quaker bill]

71. As expected.

I was pretty sure Saddam would give a small short term bounce to Bush* I did not think it would evaporate this fast. I am beginning to think most people really don't like Bush*.

I was a little surprised by the one on ones. I though Clark would be a bit closer. Apparently even if the rest quit, Dean will still be well in the lead over Clark.

It does smack the unelectable thing around a bit. But I am sure we will hear more of it regardless.

[RevolutionStartsNow]

76. On my way to Iowa...

Just landed in Chicago, boarding for Des Moines soon...This is excellent news to touch down to!

[slinkerwink]

77. have a safe trip!

:hi:

[RevolutionStartsNow]

79. Thanks Slink!

Long day of travel, but my Dean sweatshirt is getting lots of visibility!

[Padraig18]

83. The "Dean is unelectable meme is dead" kick!

LOVE IT! :)

[slinkerwink]

84. let's do a little kicking line here, showgirls!

:kick: ;-)

[Padraig18]

85. Okee dokee

A Democratic chorus line:

:dem::dem::dem::dem::dem::dem::dem::dem::dem::dem::dem:

[Zomby Woof]

87. is it an online poll?

Because those can be multiple-voted by one person, in either direction. If it's an online poll, it has NO credibility.

[Padraig18]

89. No, it's a CNN/Time poll.

:hi:

[Zomby Woof]

112. makes sense

Being that AOL-Time Warner is a Dean contributor.

[Padraig18]

90. Kick

:dem:

[Rose Siding]

92. Clark dropped 4pts since Nov

from second place to fourth place:

After the holiday drought, expect polls to come fast and furious. This one is the latest by Harris for CNN/Time. MoE 4.9 %. (November results in parenthesis)
Not sure 23 (23)
Dean 22 (14)
Kerry 10 (9)
Lieberman 9 (11)
Clark 8 (12)
Gephardt 7 (6)
Sharpton 6 (5)
Edwards 5 (5)
Kucinich 5 (2)
Braun 2 (4)

http://www.dailykos.com/

[Scott Lee]

94. Holy cow - Dean went UP 8 points?

I didnt expect that from all the gloom and doom posted here at DU by his detractors.

[Padraig18]

97. They still don't get it.

The more they attack Dean, the worse they do. Even out here in rural Illinois, people are beginning to notice the whining, and are disgusted by it...

[slinkerwink]

111. hey, Dean got a Saddam bounce!

;-)

[Scott Lee]

138. You are savage

And quick! ;)

[mouse7]

95. I think the numbers are too good.

I said that CBS poll was busted when the numbers were too far from the rest of the national polls. This poll seems wrong too. The numbers shift is too dramatic.

I really HOPE it's true, and I can't prove their's anything wrong, but I have to be honest and say they just seem too far from the rest of the national polls right now.

[Padraig18]

96. Could be.

OTOH, this one could be dead on, and the others could be screwy. At minimum, it's a stake in the heart of the "Dean is unelectable against *" meme... :)

[Bombtrack]

98. national head to heads when one candidate is so unresearched are meaningle

meaningless.

How many respondants do you think were aware of Dean's middle-class income tax raise policy position?

Maybe 5 -10 percent max?

And there were many many Dean-supporters saying how meaningless national head to heads were the last few of them when Dean did among the worst.

Look at New Hampshire, the closest red state there was other than Florida, also a state which probably knows dean better than any other besides Vermont. What did Dean lose by, 30 points?

[Rose Siding]

100. How many know Bush has charged that tax shift

to their kids accounts? And that with Clinton-era taxes, Dean will get them health care and more money for education?

At least as many.

[mouse7]

102. As many realize how much income Dean health care plan frees up

Nice try.

Dean health care frees up far more income for middle class families that is currently going to health care costs then the return to Clinton era tax levels costs.

The Dumbya middle class tax cuts were a phantasm that allowed public support for massive tax cuts for the rich. The people understand that and want health care insureance much more than they want the pennies Dumbya gave them.

[Bombtrack]

113. Clark, Kerry, Edwards, Kucinich, and Lieberman all have fine healthcare

plans that have more in common with Dean's than not, but they aren't redistributing it from increased middle class taxes.

You either believe the tax rate on the middle class and the child tax credits they get are too much, right, or too little.

And many of the aformentioned candidates are saving more money than Dean for families in other programs, like venture capital funds and tuition system overhauls.

[mouse7]

118. Venture capital funds... for middle class families??? n/t

[Bombtrack]

119. for small bussinesses

.

[mouse7]

121. Oh... okay... that's better n/t

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

107. Which candidate is "so unresearched," pray tell?

I know who the most "researched" candidate is. Who are you talking about?

[Scott Lee]

99. swift kickeroo

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

108. To the nuts...

[incapsulated]

110. Is this a poll of *registered voters*?

Because anything else is a waste of time, to me at least. Does anyone know?

[Green4Dean]

116. don't have full info

it appears to be ...the numbers that Drudge reported were that over 390 were registered democrats...That means the rest were probably republicans and independents...i think they go for the 40-40-20 split...but since he indicated 40% were registered Dems then i assume the rest were registered too...

[incapsulated]

117. mmm...

Interesting turn of events. This is a very different result than the other polls that had Bush widening his margin. I don't pay that much attention to polls right now, though, good or bad. We need the primaries to start and for the media to focus on the candidates more in order to see how people feel about voting for a Democrat over Bush. It's just too back and forth to get a handle right now.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

114. From the AJC article linked there:

"This is a campaign about us , not about me," Dean told a crowd of supporters in South Carolina, the first primary state in the South this year.

This is all about making George Bush a one-term president."

[isbister]

115. Re: Dean Second in CNN/Time Democrat Poll

The corporate media tells us that the nomination is all but wrapped up, yet Dean finished in second place to the undecided vote. I'm not a big fan of polls but it does appear as if its not over just yet.

http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04dem.htm

[milkyway]

120. The more people get to know Dean, the more they like him...

Dean will be extremely appealing to swing voters once they get to hear his populist message. Repugs are making a major mistake right now in how they are trying to portray Dean. Most Dems lose Presidential elections because they are seen as being nice guys with good policies, but they are too wimpy to protect the country. For the first time in decades, the public perception of the Dem nominee will be of a guy with balls--enough to not be afraid to state the obvious about the capture of Saddam in the middle of a national flag-waving festival. Americans love a straight-talking tough guy who won't back down and stands up for what he believes in, and as an added bonus, his policies are the Dem policies that most voters support.

[slinkerwink]

122. exactly!

[Jack_Dawson]

123. Don't you mean Clark?

Because in the game of "the more you know" I think it's safe to say Clark wins hands-down.

[Scott Lee]

133. If they had meant Clark, they'd have "said" Clark.

[DFLforever]

126. This is great news for Democrats

it looks like our candidates' messages have begun to break through.

[JDPhD]

127. Don't get too excited just yet....

I'll try not to show any bias for or against any of the candidates, but I must say it is my professional opinion (I have a PhD in poli sci) that these numbers are suspicious. Dean supporters should not get too excited (yet), and the supporters of Clark and others should not be too disheartened. The debate over who is more electable cannot be decided by this one poll.

Let me explain a couple of things about how polls work. The Bush 51%, Dean 46% numbers come from a sample of 604 likely voters nationwide. These numbers have a margin of error of + or - 4%. What that 4% figure tells us is that there is a 95% probability that the true % of Americans who would choose Bush over Dean is within 4 points of 51. In other words, Bush's support could be as high as 55, or as low as 47. Same thing with Dean -- his support could be as high as 50, or as low as 42. All the poll tells us is that the true numbers have a 95% likelihood of being somewhere in these ranges. So, at the extremes, Bush may be leading Dean 55% to 42%, or Dean may be leading Bush 50% to 47%, or the two could be anywhere in between. In addition, this poll could be one of the 5% of such polls that are simply off the mark. That, though unlikely, is certainly possible--and, in fact, it must happen every now and then to these big polls.

So, how do we know whether this poll is accurate, or one of the rare oddballs? The best way is to compare it with other similar polls and take a "poll of the polls". In other words, see if this poll is an outlier compared to the others. And that is in fact what it appears to be. Earlier polls have shown a much larger gap between Bush and Dean. So, that leaves us with one of two possibilities--(1) This poll is just one of the few that really gets things wrong, and Dean is not as close it makes it appear, or (2) something has dramatically changed in the last couple of weeks to swing tons of previously undecided voters to suddenly support Dean. Since I can't think of any reason why (2) would be true, I think (1) is more likely. But as other similar polls get reported we will find out for sure.

As an aside, there is growing problem with the accuracy of phone polls, as more and more people refuse to participate, as more and more people live busy lives away from home and thus don't answer their home phones, and as more and more people ditch their land lines for cell phones. The people who can be reached through phone surveys are not as representative of the overall population as pollsters would like. So polling companies often times "adjust" their numbers to compensate for this misrepresentation. Without knowing exactly how this poll was cooked, it is hard to say how truly representative it is.

So, in sum, just take this poll as but one piece of info to be evaluated along with many others, not as gospel truth.

[bain_sidhe]

128. More thoughts...

As I noted above, Lieberman has the same support - 46% - as Dean does (although, as Padraig18 noted, that could just be a function of name recognition). And someone else noted that all of the candidates have support within the margin of error. If we can get anything solid from this poll, it might be that there's a general support for Dems of around the mid-40s, and a general support for Bush in the high-40s/low-50s. Too bad they didn't include an "any Democrat" question for a better comparison.

[incapsulated]

129. Good Post

I agree. This is why I don't take these polls too seriously at this point, not even those that make my candidate look good. The margin of error is wide and the number of undecideds is high. The majority of people (excluding Iowa and NH) are simply not paying enough attention to any of this to take their opinions as hard and fast. We are the minority. We follow this primary from the start and have firm opinions about all the candidates already. If you could poll these very same people a month or so from now, after the actual primaries start, I wonder how different the results would be.

[Boo Boo]

130. This poll looks kinda...

screwy.

They polled 1000+, then separated out 390+ Dem and "Dem-leaning" independents, and compiled their numbers wrt Dean/other-dem matchups from that. That's a sample size of less than 400 (for the entire country), not a sample size of 1000. Further, they compare their results with those from a previous poll in October, but they changed their methodology---in October they didn't use the "dem-leaning" criteria. Not really valid to compare those numbers.

I can't find where the Bush over Dean by five comes from. Is that among Dem/Dem-leaning? That would be insane, but Bush is shown flat-out beating Dean in other polls I've seen, so I find this five percent number a little odd. I'll need to see something similar from other sources before I get excited. This just makes me think Harris are wearing their asses for hats. Too much weirdness going on with this poll.

Maybe the most interesting part of is the name recognition question: Dean(76) vs. Clark(52). Holy Joe has scored over eighty in both polls, but only got ten percent preference in this latest one, so that's not good news for him. Anyway, less than 200 people in this poll had heard of Clark. The difference in recognition (Dean vs. Clark) is greater than the difference in preference by ten points, for whatever that's worth.

Short story: this poll is lame. Setting aside the Bush/Dean result, what it really shows is name recognition, and that 300+ people preferred Dean to Lieberman by a margin of 11 points. I can't say I'm really surprised by this result, but I'm not really impressed by it either. Your average CNN viewer might be, though, so it may have use as propaganda. I doubt Dean feels like running away from it. OTOH, I doubt anybody else is losing sleep over it---except, maybe, Lieberman! :-)

[slinkerwink]

134. ha, when there are good polls about Dean, they're ALWAYS circumspect

according to the illogic of supporters of other candidates.

[Padraig18]

131. Timely kick

[Woodstock]

132. Here's link from pollingreport.com

http://www.pollingreport.com

[Progressive_Con]

137. So??

So what. Polls in my Home state of New Hampshire show Bush beating Dean down by a huge margin. At this stage before the first primary ballots are cast, Polls between Bush and Dean really do not matter. There is still ways to go before the Convention in Boston comes round.

[Padraig18]

139. "So?"

This post should put an end to the "Dean is unelectable" meme that's been tossed around here daily for months, that's what's 'So?'...

[Progressive_Con]

140. So?

It's too early in the game to be asking these types of questions. The voters are beginning to learn of Howard Deans flip-flops over many issues. I think that once we get out of the primaries and into the general election it will a whole differennt ball game. Karl Rove and GOP will take advantadge of the fact that Dean is a flip-flopper and his far left platform will make the right of center democrats, Southern Democrats, and Independents feel alienated and be forced to either stay at home or vote Bush.

It's George Mcgovern and Walter Mondale all over again.

[Padraig18]

143. KKKarl Rove is going to savage whoever our nominee is.

Every single one of our candidates has a record, and the Rove machine will savage any of them by distorting pieces of those records; Dean will be no more vulnerable in this regard than will anyone else.

[adamrsilva]

150. NH is a Republican-leaning state

that any Dem is unlikely to win.

[David Zephyr]

141. Kick. Kick. Kick. Kick. Kick. Kick.

Did I mention to kick this thread up?

[John_H]

142. Yeah baby! Now we can trust Bill Schnieder!!!

To hell with his CNN "Chimp will win by 10 in 2000" Poll!!! CNN's always high * approval numbers matter not a lick! As long as it's good news for Dean it's real journalism, baby!

[Rose Siding]

148. Oh bull. It nearly choked him to say it

Judy broke down and cried :cry:

[stickdog]

146. kick

[Brian_Expat]

147. It's ooooover. . .

Less than a year to go to President Dean!

[unfrigginreal]

149. kick

:wow: