Revisiting The Obama Delegate Spreadsheet

[TheDoorbellRang]

Remember the story of Babe Ruth pointing out just where he was going to hit that home run? That's just how Obama's spreadsheet strikes me. Just take a look at his "predictions" leaked to the press right after Super Tuesday. Obama's got game.

Revisiting The Obama Delegate Spreadsheet
Added by Mark Nickolas on Mar 31, 2008


Do you recall about two months when the Obama inadvertently (or not) released to a reporter an internal projection of delegates through the close of the primary season?

Well, I just went through the document and the projections were impressively accurate, though it was a tad bit on the pessimistic side. They projected winning the popular vote in 13 of the 17 contests after Super Tuesday until today (they actually won 14 of 17, winning Maine when they thought they'd narrowly lose). They also projected winning 456 if the 869 delegates at stake. In fact, they won 494.5 delegates.

So, what does the Obama spreadsheet project for the final 10 contests?

It believes Obama will win six of them, but will evenly split the delegates 283-283...

http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=1701

I'm not sure who this blogger uses for his delegate count, but I've been going to DemConWatch, which shows several sites' tallies, so my conclusions are just slightly rosier. Currently, AP shows Obama at 1414 pledged delegates, and DemConWatch has Obama's super delegate count at 216, for a total of 1630.

If the spreadsheet follows true -- and so far it's got an awesome track record -- Obama should achieve the majority of pledged delegates on May 20th when Oregon and Kentucky go to the polls, and hit 1697 pledged delegates by the end of the primaries, for a total of 1697 PD's + 216 SD's = 1913

IOW, if he gets another 111 super delegate endorsements between now and June 3rd -- that's 34% of the remaining 331 super D's -- this race is over.

[C_U_L8R]

1. If Obama leads this country

as well as he's run his campaign, we're all going to be better off.

[TheDoorbellRang]

3. I think he must have already impressed Wall Street

Take a look here.

[caledesi]

9. I agree! NT

[BlooInBloo]

2. I used Slate's Delegate Calculator....

... Until I saw there's no real way Clinton could win.

www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter/

[TheDoorbellRang]

4. She can if she outperforms herself from here on out

Tho she's only won one contest by over 60% (AR), she can beat Obama if she gets 65% of the delegates in all the remaining contests. And pigs may fly...

[BlooInBloo]

6. That's why I used the word "real".

[TheDoorbellRang]

7. Heh.

Have you seen any of the threads where her supporters say that we're incorrect when we state it's impossible for her to win? Consequently I am very asiduous in noting the miniscule probability of her winning (whilst likening it mentally to my chances of winning the lottery.) :D

[malik flavors]

5. I think their Indiana prediction might be a little off, after Wright. Penn. might be off also.

[TheDoorbellRang]

8. It'll be interesting to see how close he gets to it

I'm impressed with his track record -- right on all of them within a few percentage points except for Maine.

[Scurrilous]

10. K & R

:thumbsup:

[rosesaylavee]

11. K & R