On the Clinton definition of 1%

[BL611]

Why is Bill going around and saying Hillary is losing by 1%(reference the Richardson blowup et al.)? The numbers as courtesy of MSNBC today is in pledged delegates 1416-1252 which is approx. an Obama lead of 6%,and in overall delegate count including supers 1640-1507 which is still over 4%.

The difference between 1% and even the more charitable number of 4% is far from trivial, especially considering there are only about 18% of delegates left. If it was 1%, Hillary would have to win about 55% of remaining delegates, certainly far from inconceivable, but at 4% it means she has to win two thirds of remaining delegates, far less conceivable. Again this is including supers,looking at strictly pledged delegates, and in reality supers are probably not going to overturn the will of the electorate, there are only about 16% of delegates remaining.If she was losing by 1%, again a 55-45 split should do it it, but at 6% she would need about a 70-30 split to catch up. Umm thats a pretty big difference.

Do we now have to dispute the meaning of the number 1?

[flor de jasmim]

1. he's counting FL and MI, I would imagine.

He should be called on it - over and over.

[bilgewaterbill]

2. He's imagining, I would imagine.

[BzaDem]

3. I think he mentioned she was losing the popular vote by 1%.

If you include FL but not MI, it is about 1%. If you include FL and the estimates from the 4 caucus states that don't report vote totals, it is about 2%.

[BL611]

6. The nomination however is not won

by popular vote, but by delegates. Popular vote means nothing, but as a shot in the dark way to convince super delegates. Unless she can somehow substantially close the pledged delegate lead (probably at the very least a 60-40 split the rest of the way), the idea that this is going to be a convincing argument to the vast majority of remaining supers is ridiculous.

[mudesi]

4. They can't do math.

:rofl:

[anigbrowl]

5. Yes. I find this enormously dishonest.

Just like some people have a habit of referring to (say, 4% as 0.04% (4% of something = 0.04 of something). Sure, that could be due to simple innumeracy, but it's funny how the mistakes always seem to go one way and not the other.

[JayFredMuggs]

7. If Hillary voters knew she's really 6% behind in the pledged del vote

They might not show up to vote!

Counting Michigan, where only Hillary won by having no one else to vote for, well, that's sort of what I call 10% of a real primary with all ten candidates.