Political realities or why Hillary trying to convert Obama's pledged delegates is desperation

[ProSense]

CNN numbers:

Start...........................Hillary.............Obama........Hillary by
Total Delegates............ 1,486............. 1,629
PA................................60%................40%...........20 pts
IN.................................55%................45%...........10 pts
WV...............................60%................40%...........20 pts
OR................................55%................45%...........10 pts
SD................................55%................45%...........10 pts
GUAM............................60%................40%...........20 pts
NC................................55%................45%...........10 pts
KY................................65%................35%...........30 pts
MT................................55%................45%..........10 pts
PR.................................65%................35%..........30 pts
Total Delegates............ 1,819............. 1,862

After winning the ten remaining contests by the above margins, Hillary would then need approximately 62% of the remaining super delegates to reach 2,025.

Calculator

[tekisui]

1. That is a damn steep hill for Hill to climb.

[TML]

3. And it's not going to happen either.

[Orsino]

48. I think that if it could ever have happened, it would have already.

If she has a strategy beyond wishing now, it must be to find some way to turn Obama's nigh-inevitable delegate lead into a nomination for her. I'm afraid that there's no honest way that this can happen.

I think--I hope--that if she doesn't win big (this used to be defined as 20-30%) in PA, that she should drop out. If she struggles on tot eh convention, she can only be thinking of the Veep slot or a Cabinet post. She has the mojo to make either of those things happen, if she wants, though I think she could do just as much good from her Senate seat. If she ever musters the political will, that is.

[bhikkhu]

4. Absolutely - most of those numbers are unreachable.

Obama is 23 pts up in NC now, for instance.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

So w/out a 33 pt swing in NC, recalculations require bigger margins to HRC in the other 9 contests.

[ProSense]

12. Exactly! n/t

[kid a]

46. k

[Zachstar]

34. If Obama wins PA and NC ... Well you do the math.

The chances of Clinton winning are so low now that ANYONE else would have been out of the race in funds by now.

[AllentownJake]

2. Its pointless to point this out

They understand...they are loyal and until she drops...they won't either...the real hardcore ones will write her in. I expect her to get more votes than Nader in the General.

[ProSense]

5. It's amazing that

people seemed surprised that in a contest, someone wins and someone loses. Not feeling bad that Hillary is losing the Democratic primary doesn't make someone a horrible person. Being happy that Obama is winning doesn't make someone a horrible person.

[AllentownJake]

6. I've decided to be nice to the other side

My guy has a 95% chance of winning. No point in calling them names unless they say something inflammatory directly to me and than all I say is Get your Obama yard sign ready for November.

[ProSense]

7. No name calling, but the facts speak for themselves.

The person having the most difficult time dealing with this appears to be Hillary.

[JayFredMuggs]

14. Yes, and the presumptions of the Original poster were that

Hillary was given the benefit of the doubt to win ALL the remaining primaries.

Unlikely at best.

What if Obama wins NC and OR ?

[ProSense]

8. Wow, this appears to be too much reality for some people to deal with. n/t

[writes3000]

9. Jake nailed it. They will stand behind her despite the reality or the facts.

It's admirable but it is going to stoke a lot of anger in them.

It's going to get worse.

[davidpdx]

10. Interesting layout

A few of those like WV and Kentucky will likely be reachable. If I had to guess Penn is going to go for Clinton, but only by 5-8%. Indiana is close, but at this point Clinton is up by 3-5%. I agree with what someone else said, NC is a big problem. If the numbers hold, not only will she lose, but lose big. WV is likely to go overwhelmingly for Clinton as is Kentucky.

As far as my home state of Oregon, the last poll had Clinton up by 8%, but that was months ago. I am pretty sure Obama will win Oregon.

[quakerboy]

37. Which poll is that?

latest Oregon poll I see, SUSA 2/22 does Obama/Clinton vs McCain. In that, Obama was up by 1, Hillary down by 8.

[johnnydrama]

11. in the NBA

A team 16 games above .500 will miss the playoffs, and a team 5 games under .500 will make the playoffs.

Sometimes most of the tough teams are in your conference, and most of the bad teams are in the other conference, and you miss out.

Dems da breaks.

[phrigndumass]

13. And you're being very kind to Senator Clinton's prospects

Giving her all the benefit of the doubt, she will still need almost two-thirds of the superdelegates remaining. I ran my calculations on current polls for upcoming primaries, and based on those polls Senator Clinton will need 78.1% of the remaining superdelegates (239) to reach 2,023.5. That's almost four-fifths!

:thumbsup:

[Scurrilous]

15. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Vinca]

16. Someone on one of the Sunday shows said she might think twice

before pressing the "pledged delegates can switch" point because the switching can work both ways. Delegates, by now, might be convinced to go with Obama.

[BumRushDaShow]

17. K&R

A fantasy that ain't gonna happen!

:kick:

[paulk]

18. so... how exactly is Obama going to reach that magic number

without talking some of Clinton's pledged delegates into voting for him?

[ProSense]

19. Huh? n/t

[paulk]

20. don't play stupid.

You accuse Clinton of poaching delegates in order to reach 2025.

Obama will need to do exactly the same thing.

[ProSense]

21. Don't play stupid? WTF? Are you stupid? Obama doesn't need to poach Hillary's delegates

Pledged delegates come based on the winning percentage. Don't call people stupid if you don't know what the hell you're talking about!

[paulk]

22. Obama isn't going to have enough delegates to win this either.

especially in the scenario you lay out, where Hillary wins most of the remaining contests.

How is he going to get them?

Magic?

Or by convincing pledged delegates of Clinton to vote for him?

[Zhade]

23. He will, considering he's winning and she won't.

Keep dreaming that she'll get them - she won't.

[ProSense]

24. You are not making sense! It doesn't matter! The only way Hillary can get there is via the above

scenario. All Obama has to do is get within 10 points of Hillary in PA and she will no longer have the ability to surpass him. The voting will continue, and Obama will continue to build his margin with ease. She will be out of it.

He doesn't need her pledged delegates. He will continue to win his own.

He only needs a percentage of the superdelegates.

[SwampG8r]

25. dont bang your head

they stopped making sense on super tuesday

[Name removed]

27. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[ProSense]

32. You're obviously frustrated. n/t

[paulk]

39. I'm sick of the shitheads who come on here and post crap

like the person I responded to...

[Johnny__Motown]

26. He will need about 150 fewer SD to get there then she will, and since there is only about 242 SD

without a known preference

http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/superdelegates/index.html


that 150 pledged delegate lead will be insurmountable. (his lead is about 172 right now depending on who's numbers you quote)

[paulk]

30. the OP conveniently leaves out the delegates from FL and MI

the total needed to win in 2181, not 2025, if those voters are not disenfranchised.

The point is that it is probable that neither candidate will have that number come the convention. Both will be making arguments to the other side's delegates that they are more electable in order to get the required number. Accusing Hillary of trying to steal delegates when Obama is in the same position is disingenuous at best

[ProSense]

31. Oh BS! Stop trying to insinuate that the OP is something it's not. Want the reality of MI and FL

Hillary can fantasize about winning.

[paulk]

40. you want outrage, then go ahead and disenfranchise those

voters. I realize that in Obamaland, the chosen one is winning this primary in a landslide. In reality - this race is very close, and if Obama wins while excluding those states there are going to be millions of Democrats who will not see his victory as legitimate. And they will not be happy about it.

Of course, you've already stated that Obama won't need Florida to win. That's a great place to start a campaign from...

[ProSense]

41. You are confused. Obama wins even if the count FL and MI. You seem to have no problem

with Hillary's attempts to disenfranchise voters. This outrage about MI and FL is simply a hissy fit.

[paulk]

43. the number needed to win, if you count FL and MI

is 2181, not 2025, and no, Obama will not have that number by the convention unless HRC drops out.

-----------

it is an example of the cracked logic of many obama supporters that - first of all, hillary's comments on what is the truth of the "pledged delegates" is somehow proof that she is trying to steal votes and disenfranchise people and, second of all - equate that with the wholesale disenfranchisement of over 3 million voters in MI and FL.

[ProSense]

44. Wrong!

The number is 2208

[paulk]

45. that's even more

and helps my argument, not yours.

thanks!

[Levgreee]

35. There are enough superdelegates for him to reach the magic number

[AZBlue]

28. I will take to the streets if she tries to pull this shit.

I swear I will march on Colorado.

[undeterred]

29. DAMMIT I'M TOO FEMININE FOR ALL THIS MATH!!

:hide:

[Cha]

33. Good thing, Pro can do it..

numbers make my eyes glaze but thankfully we have some awesome numbers crunchers on DU:)

[undeterred]

36. I was thinkin' maybe thats why Hillary didn't realize

she's losing...

[rocktivity]

38. Hillary needs 30-point victories in ALL TEN of the constests

If she wants ANY chance of her superdelegate strategy working.

:headbang:
rocknation

[ORDem]

42. Plus, there is a steady slow move of SDs to Obama almost daily. At some point

(right after PA I suspect) it's going to be a lot more than a trickle to Obama's camp.

[ProSense]

47. Her lead among superdelegates dropped from more than 100 to 27 n/t

[ProSense]

49. Hillary's Lead In Pennsylvania Dropping Fast, CNN Average Of Polls Finds

Hillary's Lead In Pennsylvania Dropping Fast, CNN Average Of Polls Finds

By Greg Sargent - April 10, 2008, 11:42AM

CNN has just released an average it has done of recent polls in Pennsylvania, and the findings suggest that things are looking pretty rough for her in the state:

Sen. Hilary Clinton's lead over Sen. Barack Obama in the crucial primary state of Pennsylvania has dwindled to 4 points, a CNN average of recent polls calculated Thursday shows...

Recent CNN "poll of polls" suggest the race in Pennsylvania is tightening before the state's April 22 primary. A poll of polls calculated two days ago showed Clinton with a 6 point lead in Pennsylvania, and a poll of polls last Friday showed her on top by 11 points.

Hillary now leads 46%-42%. That's a drop of seven points in Hillary's average lead -- in just under a week. Obama's three-to-one spending advantage on ads in the state may be paying off.