New Electoral Vote Projections!

[bhikkhu]

April 5 Counts: Electoral Votes: Clinton 265, McCain 262, Ties 11



April 5 Counts: Electoral Votes: Obama 261, McCain 268, Ties 9



All of the angst over Obama perhaps winning the popular vote and the majority of delegates, and then being denied the nomination based upon weakness in electoral vote projection...perhaps we can leave all of that behind. Months out, the projected electoral contest it is more or less a tie, actually representing a strong shift toward Obama, compared to a week or two ago.

So, to put it plainly, there are no measures left opposing Obama's electability.

image source: http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[MadBadger]

1. Wisconsin will go for Obama if he is the nominee.

[bhikkhu]

5. Very likely there will be many such shifts

The pink-bordered white is "weak republican state", for those unfamiliar with the maps. They are explained well at the electoral-vote site...

I think once we have a nominee, and the party speaks its support (I am thinking how much the endorsement of Edwards would mean) there will be a sea change, and all favorable. Starting from "even" now is just fine.

[MadBadger]

7. The Students will mobilize big time on the Wisconsin - Madison Campus.

if he wins.

[thoughtcrime1984]

49. There is a group of us old 30 somethings in Eau Claire that'll lay it on the line

for Obama in West-Central Wisconsin. He WILL win Wisconsin, no worries.

[undeterred]

57. The students are the conservatives in Madison

because they come from all over the state and are more like a reflection of WI as a whole.

But the hippies and middle agers, we'll mobilize :hi:

[Jackpine Radical]

8. Hell yes, and Minnesota even stronger.

Any poll that puts MN in the neutral category is automatically suspect in my mind.

[MadBadger]

11. Well Wisconsin is probably one of if not the most purple state in the nation

10,000 votes were the difference in the 2004 election.

[Jackpine Radical]

21. And 5k(!) in 2000.

But I don't hear much support for McCasket anywhere, and that primary result of nearly 40-60 was pretty amazing.

[MadBadger]

26. Madison will carry Obama to victory IMO.

[Jackpine Radical]

38. Madison, Milwaukee, Eau Claire, Superior--

WI has some areas of either long-standing or recently flowering Democratic majorities. As a Madisonina, you may not know how liberal places lie Superior have historically been, and remain. Douglas County (along with Dane County, of course) went for McGovern, for example. By a landslide.

[MadBadger]

41. I realize there are more areas than just Madison that are liberal...

I think the youth vote will be huge here in the fall. We have a massive Students for Obama working the campus here. And there was a pretty large turnout on the campus. In the GE the students will spear a massive Obama movement in Madison IMO.

[BadgerLaw2010]

60. Waukesha County cancels out Dane, more or less.

The collar counties around Milwaukee are not exactly small. And the Republican parts of Waukesha tend to have tremendous turnout because of demographics. No Democrat gets any votes there because it is simply not in their economic interest to do so.

What normally happens in general elections in Wisconsin is that the Republican and Democratic strongholds cancel each other out, and it comes down to the rest of the state to tilt it. There's a reason this state is as close as it is.

[BadgerLaw2010]

56. You can't predict a state that was won by less than 1%.

By the way, why didn't all the Obama youth turn out and vote for Wisconsin's Supreme Court race? Turnout in Madison was horrible and the corporate lackey who won with 51% of the vote is as well.

[StevieM]

2. It seems likely that Hillary would win WA, OR, IA, NH and WI. I don't know about Obama winning

PA, MI and OH, especially if he is arrogant in defeat and demands that Hillary beg his forgiveness and treats her like sh*t. A lot of her voters, myself included feel very unappreciated and taken for granted.

Then again, November is a lifetime away, and nobody knows how either candidate will look coming out of the convention, or how McCain will look coming out of his.

What bothers me the most is that she looked like the bad guy in Wisconsin for running "a horrible negative ad" in which she criticized him for not debating. He called her a liar in his response, saying that his health care plan covered more (even Robert Reich says so!) and that his morgage plan was considered better by a study (which was done by his own campaign). And there was no debate in which to clarify these matters. Obama skipped a debate and he was rewarded for his misdeeds.

Steve

[MadBadger]

3. What makes you think she would likely win Wisconsin or Iowa?

[NJSecularist]

6. So Hillary will win WA, OR, IA, NH and WI..

if she throws Obama supporters under the bus and wins the nomination?

I don't think so.

It's funny how all these states are a given for Mrs. Annointed One Hillary Rodham Clinton.

[bhikkhu]

10. If you look at the maps, the polling says the opposite

That Obama is the stronger candidate in WA, OR, IA, and WI. Hillary is stronger only in NH (if I have quickly read all of this correctly).

[MadBadger]

The fact that StevieM put IA & WI on the list tells me that he doesnt know much about those states

[BadgerLaw2010]

58. Why does Obama win them easily when Hillary does not?

Neither state has a large African-American population. Neither state is liberal. Both are 50/50 states and Bush won one of them in 2004.

Wisconsin just elected a Republican Supreme Court Justice over a better qualified, sitting, African-American Supreme Court justice, by the way.

[undeterred]

59. Really. Reps will cross to vote for Obama not Hillary.

Republican men will NEVER vote for a woman, especially Hillary Clinton.

[woolldog]

28. No, the map shows Obama stronger in NH too. n/t

[Zhade]

33. She's not going to win, so your scenario is fantasy.

NT!

[eagertolearn]

55. Oregon will vote for Obama

[AllentownJake]

62. PA is Blue

PA hasn't voted GOP since 1988...don't know why we keep getting called a swing state.

[Life Long Dem]

4. So everyday we debunk her new rules

yet she still loses on her own new set of rules! How bad is that? Damn - that must HURT! And if she actually was to get a win through her NEW set of rules, NO ONE would allow it anyway!!

[MattNC]

9. we should be skeptical....

this far out. Not suggesting these polls are meaningless, but they can and will change between now and November regardless of this nominee.

[bhikkhu]

14. The point is, they are being used NOW as justification to sweep away the primary process

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/madfloridian/1969

...based upon the past few weeks of polling where Obama had the electoral disadvantage. The reason for this post is to point out - that electoral disadvantage is gone.

[phrigndumass]

12. Senator Obama puts TEXAS into play.

That's a pretty big state, isn't it?

[NJSecularist]

13. No he doesn't.

That's a solid red state.

[phrigndumass]

15. Looking at the map, it's white with pink edges

... which means that McCain is only leading there less than five percent.

Edited to add: McCain 47%, Obama 46%
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/Apr05.html

[NJSecularist]

16. McCain will win Texas by 15-20 points.

That is a guarentee. I will put money on it.

[MadBadger]

17. How much?

I say 10.

[NJSecularist]

20. I'd put 10 bucks on it... but that bet was more tongue in cheek

;)

Bush won Texas by 23 points in 2004 and 22 points in 2000. I think Obama will do better than that in 2008, but I do not expect him to come within 10 points.

[woolldog]

37. Bush is from Texas. McCain isn't.

[phrigndumass]

24. I can spare five bucks ... deal?

But McCain's gotta win by 15 points or more!

:toast:

[NJSecularist]

30. I have monopoly money... is that fine?

:)

Really, I do not think he'll come close. I stand by my 15+ projection..

[phrigndumass]

34. Monopoly money might be worth more than the dollar, come November!

:rofl:

Works for me!

[bhikkhu]

18. In the Obama map, it is a "pink bordered state" - weak repug

meaning it is in play, according to the polls, more so with Obama than with Clinton.

I think with the nomination settled we will see a sea-change and all of the "in-play" states will be possible. We have a campaign that has barely begun, while McCain has nothing really to roll out, but a long threatened negative campaign.

[MadBadger]

19. They are probably referring to a poll that was taken around the time of the Texas primary

A lot has changed since then though.

[NJSecularist]

22. It was one or two polls taken around the Texas primary

Texas is not in play. It won't be in play in 2008. It won't be in play in 2012. The Democratic Party in Texas needs to get its act together. Some of it has to do with Tom Delay's pathetic gerrymandering, but the state party has been in shambles. There is Austin and not much else...

[bhikkhu]

31. As far as the electoral totals, pink or red amount to the same...

Its always easy to be a optimist, though, this far out. Does McCain have an energy plan that would appeal to TX?

[bhikkhu]

43. Checking, the polls were by SurveyUSA on 2/26-2/28

probably no one will be polling again there for awhile.

[McCamy Taylor]

27. I am from Texas and no he does not. High oil prices are good for this state. McCain is soft on

immigration which will make him popular with Latinos, who would distrust most other Republicans. McCain will gobble up Texas. It is the reddest of reds. Just write it off.

[phrigndumass]

39. Can't write it off, I'm betting Monopoly money on it!

(see above replies)

:D

[Maddy McCall]

29. Bwahahahahaha!

Bookmarking.

[phrigndumass]

42. Geez, lighten up!

Nobody can count on these polls this far out. Have a little fun with it!

:hi:

[McCamy Taylor]

23. Add Wa and Oregon to Hillary and take off ND from Obama and yeah I agree.

No way Washington or Oregon is going GOP this year, but I don't see ND going Democrat (with its 3 delegates lol) with a moderate like McCain in the race.

About Nevada and Obama, he needs to get in there and swear to them he will undo the Yucca mess. They think he is Mr. Nuclear.

So, this underestimates Hillary's strength by 18.

And do not delude yourself. Texas loves the high price of oil and McCain is soft on immigration, so Texas will stay red as red can be.

[PseudoIntellect]

25. Nice post. While it isn't at all the main reason why Obama should be the nominee,

it debunks the claims that he doesn't hold up in the GE and proves that the polls can and WILL shift a lot in the next 7 months.

[goldcanyonaz]

32. This also debunks the claims that she doesn't hold up in the GE.

[MadBadger]

35. I think she'll hold up fine

I see her winning by 17 electoral votes and him by around 60.

[PseudoIntellect]

36. I agree, either of our candidates should win.

[bhikkhu]

52. True as well, and good news also.

[LisaL]

61. I don't know if I believe any of these polls, but Hillary looks

very electable, winning both FL and OH.
And I love how DUbamas get upset when somebody makes a claim that Obama is not electable, but they themselves constantly make the same claim against Hillary.

[bhikkhu]

66. Agreed...I have pointed out very often that they are about even in most respects

and this post is in part a response to a previous post citing the same source with earlier polling data more unfavorable to Obama - the gist of which was "Obama is unelectable". It is always good to have data to back up claims, and you are correct that there is not really any data that says Hillary is unelectable, any more than Obama.

[bhikkhu]

40. Thanks...and I think the shift in this poll is 108 pts in 4 days

for Obama...not that that represents anything but the updates of rolling averages and old polls circulating out of play, but it is a much better picture of the present, and a thing to put the mind at ease about the "electoral vote issue".

[GoldieAZ49]

44. LOL

So, to put it plainly, there are no measures left opposing Obama's electability.
:rofl: :rofl: :rofl:

keep telling yourself that, so you can be truly, madly, deeply disappointed

[bhikkhu]

46. "measures" referring to things such as popular vote, delegate count, electoral projections, etc.

Statistics and numbers - measurable things.

No problem with anyone having a good laugh, though. I know what you are probably thinking, but where you see weakness I see strength.

[DUyellow]

45. Check out this graph of the election

of 2004... all of these polls are crap

[bhikkhu]

47. I've looked at that quite a bit, and I referred to it last week

In response to a post similar to mine, but announcing the doom of the democratic party based upon the electoral vote projections. At that time, both Hillary and Obama had no chance against McCain, and Obama had the worst of it. It is still reasonable to post the good news of the present while expecting to see many more changes.

A primary point would be - the argument that electoral projections should determine the selection of Hillary over Barack, in spite of popular vote and delgate count wins, is finished.

edit to say - thanks for the graphic. I am not so good at embedding images. And it still gives me the shivers - I think I looked at that daily in the run-up to Bush/Kerry, and it was always a stomach-turning moment waiting for my then dial-up to load it.

[DUyellow]

48. good point, i am just saying it chages from week to week...

[TheDonkey]

50. Looks good for both

[davidpdx]

51. It's kind of sad some of the arguments being made about Obama

in terms of the electoral college and electability. First, it is still many months away either way it's difficult to sit here and pronounce either one of them "dead" in the GE. Second, if you look at the video (er..I guess that is what we'll call it) that landon posted, the electoral college numbers went up and down several times through out the last five months of the 2004 election. Guess what, it's going to pretty much do the same thing. Isn't that a given?

Third, clearly Obama brings more states into play then Clinton does. Colorado, Texas, South Carolina, Nebraska Wisconsin, Iowa and North Dakota are 76 electoral votes at least that could go for Democrats. The trade off will be working harder to secure Ohio, Penn and Florida (68 electoral votes) which Obama would start behind in. Tennessee may be more difficult with Obama as the nominee, but then again you never know. Nevada, Minn are about the same for both. Washington and Oregon would go for Obama if he is the nominee so you can add another 18 on to the 76 for a total of 94.

[Blue_In_AK]

53. I think McCain is weak in Alaska.

He only got about 1,000 votes in the Rs' presidential preference poll. Obama won the Democratic caucus handily. Hillary has generally been regarded skeptically by many Alaskans for many years, I'm not quite sure why. If Obama is our nominee, he should do well here.

[bhikkhu]

54. That would be something. Alaska went Bush, Dole, Bush, Bush.

But I think that much of the country will see nothing but more of the same in McCain...

[Blue_In_AK]

63. I know we haven't had such a good record,

but the political landscape up here has changed quite a bit since 2004. We've elected a populist governor (she's a Republican but even some in her own party are calling her a "socialist"), and there have been all the corruption investigations and trials. Anchorage just elected a left-leaning assembly -- we now have 6 Democrats, 5 Republicans compared to the former 7 Republicans, 4 Democrats -- and we have a Democratic mayor. So things are looking up.

[bhikkhu]

64. Shameless morning self-kick. n/t

[SoCalDem]

65. Map..No FL, OH, PA needed 285 EVs for Obama

[grantcart]

67. I think Obama has to be considered strong in Mi WI VA and CO as well as Georgia