Bob Barr's candidacy could tip Georgia to Obama's column in Nov.

[BluegrassDem]

I don't see Barr doing a lot of damage to McCain elsewhere, but in Georgia, he would for sure take enough conservative votes away from McCain to tip the state to Obama. Obama would be competitive enough in Georgia anyway, but with Barr on the ballot, Georgia will turn blue in November! Combine that with states like Virginia and Colorado, Obama can stretch the EV map to where he could even lose Ohio and Florida and still win.

[SoCalDem]

1. Map..No FL, OH, PA needed 285 EVs for Obama

add GA, and it's even better

[lisa58]

2. Should dems support Barr's candidacy...

...in order to weaken the vote in the red states?

[DJ13]

5. And undercut Hillary's support of McCain?!

Yes!

[beachmom]

3. Hmmm ... I don't know about that. I think we need some stats as to

what percentage of Republicans are which part of the conservative coalition. Religious Right vs. Libertarians. There are a lot of Libertarians, but at what percentage?

Edit: plus does anyone have a recent poll of support for Bush and support for the Iraq War among Georgians? I heard it is way above the national average.

[ingac70]

7. The thing is Barr never voted like a Libertarian...

He's a typical wing nut Repug, probably hoping to draw some voters who listen to Rush and hate McCain.

[BluegrassDem]

8. Bob Barr was pretty popular with the fundies in Georgia

Also, they hate McCain anyway. Like I said, Obama has the chance to win Georgia without Barr anyway. But with Barr on the ticket, that'll pull enough votes away from McCain along with increased African-American turnout to turn Georgia blue.

[izzybeans]

4. My wife's Libertarian uncle in Atlanta would be one of those voters for sure.

[TexasObserver]

6. I'd like to see him running throughout the South on the Libertarian ticket.

He could really pull some votes away from the Pubs.

[bluestateguy]

9. That may be overly optimistic

I think McCain has enough of a cushion in Georgia to withstand a Barr candidacy. And Barr has never won a statewide ballot in Georgia. I'm thinking of numbers more like this:

McCain 56%
Obama 41%
Barr/Other 3%

[Awsi Dooger]

11. Optimistic isn't the word

Delusional multiplied by the Reagan/Bush national debt.

Every cycle we're treated to several optimistic threads about GA opportunity. Meanwhile, that state is turning red unlike any major state in the union. We narrowly held onto two House seats in '06, the only incumbents we came close to losing in a tidal wave year, and both were in GA.

bluestateguy has a very good estimate. I'd shade it just a bit lower, to 56%, 42%, 2%. Depends on the national margin. If Obama wins nationally by 2-3% he'll cut it closer than this in GA. Off the top of my head GA should be about 14% more red than the nation in '08.

Third party candidacies are overstated.

[MattNC]

12. agreed

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/GA/P/00/index.html

Bush defeated Kerry, 58-41. Badnarik (the Libertarian candidate) garnered a weak 1%. It's difficult believing that Barr could get more than about 5% at best and that high turnout among African Americans and younger voters could deliver the state for Obama. It's possible but doubtful.

[Blue_In_AK]

10. Bob Barr could be quite popular in Alaska,

I would think, if he campaigns up here. McCain did not do well in the Republicans' preference poll. Isn't Barr more libertarian? If so, that would have great appeal here.