BREAKING: New ARG Poll has PA tied at 45-45 Obama/Clinton as Obama surges

[Tropics_Dude83]

The PA firewall has collapsed.

This state was supposed to be unwinnable for Obama. Are we headed for an upset?

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com


April 6, 2008 - Pennsylvania Democratic Primary Preference

Pennsylvania
Democrats Mar
7-8 Mar
26-27 Apr
5-6

Clinton 52% 51% 45%
Obama 41% 39% 45%
Someone else 1% 2% 4%
Undecided 6% 8% 6%

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 53% to 36% among men (46% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 52% to 39%.

Clinton leads 52% to 36% among white voters (80% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 89% to 9% among African American voters (16% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Obama leads 52% to 38% among voters age 18 to 49 (52% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 52% to 38% among voters age 50 and older.

27% of all likely Democratic primary voters and 41% of likely Democratic primary voters age 18 to 49 say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 25% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

For details, click on the R or D for each state in the column on the left under 2008 Presidential Polls.

[Thepricebreaker]

1. I hear Hillbots heads exploding all over DU. n/t

[gcomeau]

14. Geez...

...please grow up. Every time I see someone use the term "Hillbots" I am forced to wonder if they're a Republican plant deliberately trying to drive the Clinton supporters so far into a rage that they refuse to vote for Obama in the GE... since I can think of not a single other possible goal that employing that term could accomplish here.

Is civility really just plain beyond you?

[anigbrowl]

35. Just as an aside...I think that sort of started with her campaign

Go look on her website - youth are called 'Hillblazers' for example. '-bot' is a common suffix for any partisan on a message board - ps3bots, bushbots, whatever. The term derives from IRC, where scripts allow moderators to create 'bots' to act as automatic moderators for chat channels. It's more of a net thing than a civility thing.

[Thepricebreaker]

48. Ahhh... we have a winner!

[Shae]

110. even so

it never hurts to take the high road.

[gcomeau]

55. Origins are irrelevent at this stage...

...it's been employed as a pejorative on the forums for weeks, continuing to throw it out there to refer to Clinton supporters in the atmosphere that exists on this board serves only one purpose, and that's to take a jab at the other side. Nobody has been using it to refer to supporters on the other side in a context that implies they're acting in a moderating capacity, they've been using it as a shorthand for "robots", as in mindless drones following along after their candidate. And there's no excuse for it.

[kmsarvis]

109. NERD EXPOSED!!!

JUST KIDDING.

[CADEMOCRAT7]

93. New to DU and do not understand

I am shocked at what I am reading. What has happened to this community ? I just signed on today because there is so much excitement and attention in the air in this rare primary season. History is being made and our party is making it !
We have a chance to end the suffering of the Bush years !
There seems to be so much animosity between fellow democrats and progressives in regards to Clinton supporters and Obama supporters.
Why is there such a split occurring ? I can understand there being different opinions and frustrations with the candidates, but what I am reading here is more than that.
What has happened to this community for things to be so negative ? This negativity towards one another will certainly not help the other to see your view and come to understand your stance and move to your side, it can only serve to further split you to a point in the general election you may not vote at all, or even worse for more Bush years. I ask you to step back and bring in perspective to why you joined DU in the first place.

[Shae]

111. it's just the "silly season"

probably more negatively charged than usual, but hopefully we'll soon be channeling our efforts toward McCain.
Welcome to DU.
:hi:

[knixphan]

119. ditto and welcome

[CADEMOCRAT7]

139. focus

thank you for the welcome. lets focus our energy towards McCain.

[CADEMOCRAT7]

138. Lets work on this

thank you for the welcome and thanks for your reply. lets work on focusing energy towards McCain. i am sure the pro McCain supporters would love to see the party split.

[krkaufman]

141. It's probably best to edit your Prefs and hide GDP threads. n/t

[apocalypsehow]

106. Your phony "concern" is noted.

n/t.

[WonderGrunion]

125. I used to use the term

because it was very specifically a non-sexist attack against Hillary's supporters. But I've discontinued its use due to recent calls for civility on the board.

[ORDem]

112. Oh yeah! They were so damn cocky about it being a closed primary and all.

If Hillary was smart she'd find a way to save face now.

Hear that giant sucking sound? It's her donors wanting their money back...

:dem:

[nsd]

2. Yay! Fingers crossed. (nt)

[Colobo]

3. BAM! Gobama!

[MadBadger]

4. Huzzah!

[Condem]

5. C'mon Tropics!

ARG hasn't been right since Jesus graduated from high school.

[MadBadger]

6. Did Jesus graduate HS on March 4th than?

They got Texas right and predicted a 14 point Hillary win in OH.

[Tropics_Dude83]

9. And again it's all about the delegates

Clinton needed a 25 point PA win to begin to chip away at her pledged delegate deficit, not to mention her popular vote deficit. She's NOT going to get it.

[Condem]

11. hnmnf

you're reaching, man. Last I checked SUSA is on top.

[MadBadger]

18. Last week, ARG and SUSA showed the same result a 12-13 point Hillary lead

This week ARG shows it tied. There is a trend here people. Plus, ARG was second closest in Wisconsin polls. I think ARG earned a bad rep after Iowa, but has slowly earned back some of its credibility.

[Condem]

So ,hnmnf

When's the next SUSA out?

[MadBadger]

39. Idk..maybe sometime this week?

[Condem]

43. Watch it , hnmnf

The amount of racism in that state is incredible. Carville's right. It's Alabama between Philly @ Pitt.

[MadBadger]

44. Obama will win by one..that is and has been my prediction for over a week now.

[Condem]

46. Than in 16 days we will drink a toast!

[PM7nj]

60. Don't worry about the T

The VAST majority of the racists in the "T" are Repukes anyway, so I'm not worried about it.

[tekisui]

25. They all show the same trend. Obama is closing the gap.

Some have him 5-7 behind, some even, some have him up.

The trends show that she won't be getting a 20 point win.

She probably won't get a 10 point win.

She may not win PA!

[Tropics_Dude83]

7. Since S.C., ARG has improved n/t

[AX10]

8. True.

[Yael]

38. "True"? ARG has been around for 2,000 years?

[Sensitivity]

88. NOT LOGICAL. This is Hillary Country. She should have bigger win than in OHIO.

[MadBadger]

89. Why is it Hillary Country. Why should she have a bigger win than in OHIO?

[Independent-Voter]

126. More old, low-eductated white women in PA than OH for starters.

[my3boyz]

100. Should or will? nt

[BumRushDaShow]

132. Apparently Hilly Country hasn't met Philly Country. n/t

[sellitman]

10. She will probably win in PA anyway BUT:

It looks like it will be close.

That's all Obama needs.

[skooooo]

50. Nah...

She'll just move the goalposts again.

[Alter Ego]

128. She already has

According to Bill, North Carolina is now a must-win for them...puzzling, since the numbers and demographics are not in her favor there.

[FatDave]

142. huh.

Bill declares NC a "must win"? For Hillary?

[Kahuna]

12. GoBama! It's yo' birthday....

:woohoo: :bounce: :applause:

[angie_love]

29. gonna party like its ya birthday, gonna drink bacardi like its ya birthday

:woohoo:

[Kahuna]

42. ...

At least somebody GETS it.. :hug:

[angie_love]

129. of course!

:hug:

[1776Forever]

147. Parteeeeeeeee Parteeeeeeeee - Yeah here's to us!!!!!!

:toast: :party: :toast:

[jenmito]

13. That's what happens when Obama campaigns face to face!

[AllentownJake]

15. I hope he gets back out here

That bus tour really helped him. Not to mention to pat ourselves on the back the large volume of volunteers he has working their asses for him right now :-)

[jenmito]

24. I hope he does another tour before the 22nd! I know the Clintons will be all over PA before then.

He needs to do more of what he just did!

[AllentownJake]

53. She's really not been around

Her daughter and Bill have been out to my area but we have not seen her yet.

[Tropics_Dude83]

56. Obama should camp out in PA for the next 16 days

Not to go in for the "kill" but to make PA voters fall in love with him. If I were him, I'd spend all of my time in the next 2 weeks in PA.

NC/Indiana will just have to get over it.

Also, I feel much better about PA than I ever did in Ohio. Even look at my post on March 3 when I said "don't despair Obama supporters about the OH/TX results because Obama has a much better shot in PA than many think."

Now, here we are.

[jenmito]

62. IF he can WIN in PA, that would be "game over" for Hillary. I think he would've come much

closer to her in OH if it wasn't for Hillary's claim that he told the Canadian Parliament something different about NAFTA than he told the voters-and that came out right before the vote.

[JBoy]

137. Didn't Bill Clinton already move the goal posts to North Carolina?

[jenmito]

57. That's why I worry her numbers will rise when she DOES come around. n/t

[AllentownJake]

75. I don't know

I don't think the excitement for her in this area compares to Obama. She had 3 dozen people show up at her office opening. We had 375.

[jenmito]

77. I hope you're right!

It's just that she has so many establishment-people on her side there, pulling strings, etc.

[JackORoses]

16. Cominarayhaaaaawwwww!!!!

Just wait until the continuing saga of Liargate takes its inevitable toll.

[Pirate Smile]

17. I don't believe it. If he loses by less then 10% then he is in good shape.

Rinse, Lather, Repeat.

[Condem]

23. Pirate. you're right .

I grew up there. That state is poison.

[Sparkly]

19. Wow!

That is very bad news for the Clinton camp. :wow:

[Skip Intro]

20. We'll see what happens. I think Hillary will win PA, by a comfortable margin, similar to OH.

You know, where all the poor, stupid, racist white folk voted for her.

There were polls that showed that race closer than it was too. And he was supposedly surging in NH before Hillary won that one.

We will see.

There is a debate and two weeks before the primary.

I'd chill on the counting of chickens just yet.

[AX10]

Also, ARG is horrible in their accuracy.

[anigbrowl]

37. Mmm, but this is not the only poll showing this kind of close result.

There have been a few similar results in the last week. A 'morning call' poll showed a wider gap, but had a very low sample size.

[ekwhite]

134. The Morning Call is a newspaper out of the ABE area

Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton.

[tekisui]

32. I predect less than OH margin, which was 10 points.

She will win by single digits. Or, she will lose. It is possible she could lose PA, especially with Penn lobbying for union-busters. PA is a Union state.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

21. wow. that explains the new meme from her camp.

wait. There have been so many, contradictory ones, I lost track which are the latest.

[jenmito]

30. Rendell has been saying a "good win"for Hillary in PA would be 5-9 points.

More bar-lowering.

[crankychatter]

51. in his interview today he started "5to10" then ended with "4to8"

he lowered it in ONE sitting but still said in PA, "that's a big win"

[jenmito]

65. That's funny-moving the goalposts in one interview!

Jeez!

[Kahuna]

49. The usual. Vote for her because she's female.

:boring:

[MadBadger]

22. Crosstabs actually show Obama up 46-45, based on the 18-49, and 50 and up number.

[Quakerfriend]

26. Well, just my observation while in the Whole Foods parking lot

this afternoon- I saw three Obama bumber stickers while walking to my car, and not a one for Hil.

btw, I'm in the Philly suburbs.

[Shae]

113. that's really good news.

[crankychatter]

27. you go, Dawg

ty k/r

yes he can

[abbyg8r]

28. This is good news but I'm not getting my hopes up.

With Wolfson in charge, she's going to start anew with her "look at me, I'm likeable" tour - which has already begun ie. Leno and Ellen. I think she'll regain her lead in the days leading up to the election. However, I don't think she'll win by double digits.

[tekisui]

33. Wolfson is a joke.

With him at the helm, the campaign is in a death-spiral.

[abbyg8r]

36. I agree but Ohio made me cautious. n/t

[tekisui]

41. If she wins by the Ohio margin--10 points--it's a loss.

You can't trust the polls a week before the vote. NH, CA and OH have proven that. But, look, we're still 2+ weeks out. The trend is for Obama. The gap is closing. I don't see her winning by more than single digits. And, it is very possible she could lose it.

Obama said himself if they play a "perfect game", they COULD win it.

[abbyg8r]

47. I definitely think that if she wins

it will only be by single digits. However, I'm sure the MSM will forget the original goal posts.

[TLM]

121. Doesn't matter....

PA is her last chance. She needs at least 65% or the delegates just aren't there.

If she only gains a net of 3 or 4 delegates, there is no way she can beat Obama, none. She needs PA and big or her ship continues to sink.

[Kahuna]

52. Do you realize her numbers seem to be tanking since this latest..

"look at me, I'm likeable" tour? Maybe she went a tad overboard making light of her Tuzla LIE on Jay Leno. Just maybe.. :shrug:

[goclark]

97. I saw that performance

:puke:

[Shae]

114. that's a little bit like Al Gore in 2000

in the sense that she's still trying to hit on whatever will work for her.
It's a little late in the game to be trying to figure that out. For Obama, it seems natural and effortless.

[quakerboy]

31. I will believe it

when I see the returns. Ohio made me cautious.

[Pirate Smile]

61. Don't forget New Hampshire.

[quakerboy]

67. That one wasnt a huge supprise to me

[jefferson_dem]

34. oBAMa!

:bounce:

[wiggs]

40. ballgame. nt

[IamyourTVandIownyou]

45. "The trend is your friend"

Omentum.

[Pavlovs DiOgie]

54. I'm happy

but skeptical - this seems too good to be true. Can Obama really win in PA?

[Tropics_Dude83]

58. An 0.0001% Obama win in PA ends HRC's campaign btw n/t

[malik flavors]

59. Good knews, but I still don't think Obama's going to pull it off. The Clinton campaign has,,,

already said if Obama gets too close they're going to go negative. They claim to have dirt on Obama that they'll use if they have to in order to win Penn. by a good margin.

[woolldog]

63. Is anyone troubled that O is only getting 3 out of 10 white voters?

that bothers me.

[MadBadger]

66. Closer to 4/10...and no, I am not worried.

[woolldog]

68. why aren't you troubled by that?

because most of them are older? PA is an older state, so that might be skewing the results. But still...

[MadBadger]

71. Because this race is trending heavily towards Obama

If the trend were to continue, he would be over 40% in the white vote in a week.

[sudopod]

115. If 89% of AAs are voting for Barack

and only 39% of all women are voting for Barack, then that means that the vast majority of white women are voting for Hillary.

However, Barack's holding his own among the magical, all-important white man vote, where most race-based nastiness tends to come from. So no, I'm not worried.

[anigbrowl]

79. That's like saying Clinton only gets 5/10 white voters

36% vs 52%, and presumably 12% undecided. For sure he has a hurdle to overcome there, but I don't find it that bad.

[stratomagi]

64. I would like to remind all of us Obama supporters that to win Pennsylvania

we can't take comfort in this poll too much. This poll is just a validation of our efforts, to really win we have to reach out to our neighbors every day until election day.

[knixphan]

120. absolutely right

[gauguin57]

69. I can tell you that Obama visited my county ... one of the reddest in PA ... and they LOVED him ...

... hundreds of people who wanted to get in to see him had to be turned away.

If Obama can win over REDVILLE here, he can do anything!

(to be fair, Hillary drew a good crowd here the week before ... people also had to be turned away).

[mythyc]

70. this one gets the Mr. T happy dance

[tishaLA]

72. I don't believe the results

I think Sen Clinton is going to win PA by ~8%. Unfortunately, she has to win by about 14% for it to really mean anything, so....

[slinkerwink]

73. I don't think it's going to be an upset. He'll be behind single digits.

[Colobo]

74. Clinton 54%, Obama 46%

[MadBadger]

76. You are about 9 points off

:-)

[Bensthename]

78. And he still has 2 weeks to break away.. LMFAO.. 3..2..1.. She's out..

[Zachstar]

80. Oh my! The goal in my view was within 5 percent! Now there is a chance he may win it!!

5 percent put him in the range where he could end the month with a net delegate gain.

Let us hope he WINS PA now so that this race will be virtually OVER!

[scheming daemons]

81. I've lived in PA my whole life.... the only way Obama wins this state is with HUGE turnout in Philly

I live in the Pittsburgh suburbs..... and I'm telling you, there's a lot of anti-Obama sentiment around here...

..and sadly, a lot of it is racial. There's a lot of white "resentment" (to put it nicely) around here.



I hope I'm wrong.... Hillary is strong here in Washington County.

[TheDonkey]

117. I believe so as well

if Obama can pull of a win in PA then he should be sworn in as the nominee the following day. The state is as ripe for Hillary as any other than its neighbor NY. But these polls are signs that Obama is closing the margin well.

[woolldog]

124. This fits in with the little I know of PA.

I expect a strong "Bradley effect" in PA as well as late deciders breaking heavily towards Clinton. So you can throw out all these polls. They're worthless.

[Frances]

82. Obama winning Pennsylvania would greatly increase

his chances of winning the general.

I've said all along that Obama will look weak if Hillary just drops out. But if Obama beats Hillary in a state where there are lots of blue-collar Dems who remember the Bill Clinton 90s as being good years, then Obama looks strong enough to beat McCain.

Obama will need the Hillary supporters in the general election.

So, if you are an Obama supporter who feels he/she must be obnoxious, post something obnoxious about McCain.

[PA Democrat]

83. Great news!

I thought those numbers would start moving in our direction once Obama spent some time campaigning here.

[liberaldem4ever]

84. K & R!!

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

85. The firewall is ablaze. Tell Hillary to pick up the red phone.

[usregimechange]

86. I wish they would break down the data into regions...

[Rosa Luxemburg]

87. very promising!

[Frank Booth]

90. But, but, but .... I thought he had a "glass jaw"?? I thought he was destroyed by "Pastorgate"??

Is Hillary really that poor of a candidate that she can't beat the "weak" Obama?

Or has everyone just continued to underestimate Obama? Hillary supporters are damning their own candidate with their argument that Obama is a weak candidate. He beat a very tough competitor in Clinton, and he'll do the same to McCain.

[rainbow4321]

91. Was this poll after the Columbiagate news broke or before???

No wonder Bill Clinton has gone onto making NC the new goal post location. And why Rendell went public with the "ditch Penn NOW".

The Clinton camp probably saw these numbers before the public and they know they are fucked. You know they are desperate when he is trying to set up the goal post in a state where she is 20+ points BEHIND!

Hmmm, hope they redo the poll on Tuesday or Wednesday after this weekend's -gates have time to circulate around PA media and water coolers.

[Sensitivity]

92. SUSPICIOUS. Clinton Campaign must be paying the to change "EXPECTATIONS" so the victory

gets big press even if it is 5 points.

[Thepricebreaker]

104. ...you know I never thought of that.. Good call.

[Scurrilous]

94. Gobama!

:thumbsup:

[RiverStone]

95. I wonder what losing a 20 point lead in 3 weeks suggests to her campaign?

Not being snarky here, I just question at what point her campaign logically deduces Hillary is too far behind in laps to catch Obama before the end of the race.

A month ago the mantra was wait till PA - if PA is not a convincing win, and NC will be a convincing loss - the writing is on the wall in big BOLD letters.

[DB1]

101. It suggests, CALL Russert, Fox ,Drudge, Murdoch, they will gurgle til they....

get a better offer, or their boss cuts a deal. Sad but true.

[goclark]

96. Are there any African American women?

It always fascinates me when they phase it this way.....

"Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 53% to 36% among men (46% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 52% to 39%"

Are they counting African American women, Latino woman, Asian Women or just White Women?

And those men are ALL men correct?

I wish they would be more specific......


Clinton leads 52% to 36% among white voters (80% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 89% to 9% among African American voters (16% of likely Democratic primary voters).

[JustinL]

122. it looks like the numbers are for ALL men and ALL women

The gender breakdowns in the OP work out to a 45-45 total.

If you assume that there is no gender difference among African American voters in their candidate preferences, and that the AA voters have the same 46/54 gender breakdown as all voters, then Obama is leading 46-41 among non-AA men, while Clinton is leading 60-29 among non-AA women.

[goclark]

130. And what about Asian and latino women

How would they be counted in that breakdown.

Thanks ~

[PerfectSage]

98. Yahoo another Penn state poll to make the pollster.com trend niiiiiiiiice.

Crackers for Obama

[my3boyz]

99. I still don't believe it. I would LOVE for it to be true

but I still can't make myself believe it. I hope I'm wrong and the polls are right! That would make my day.

[saltpoint]

102. Get ready, everyone. The Clinton campaign is about to order some more

snow shovels and donuts.

Just you watch.

[samsingh]

103. is this a reliable poll?

[MadBadger]

105. I say it is, but others would disagree

ARG royally fucked up Iowa so people have dismissed it ever since, even though ARG has improved greatly since then.

[samsingh]

144. i guess we need a few other polls to know one way or the other

[loveangelc]

107. sorry, I'm just not buying it. It would be incredible if he won Pennsylvania but

I don't expect him to win. I think she will win by anywhere from 5-12 points right now.

[kmsarvis]

108. WHERE IS JACKSON_DEM???

[crankychatter]

131. I'm not allowed to say

shhhhh

[TheDonkey]

116. Like OH I think the polls will be off. HC will win PA but not by a great deal

by the margin she needs to make a good dent in either pop vote or delegates.

[kwenu]

118. I hope he wins so the Clinton campaign can stop making fools of themselves and go away.

but she'll still probably continue after making up a another lame excuse as to why she really isn't dead in the water.

[DerekJ]

123. We're supposed to lower expectations ...She will win by 30 points..Here I said it.

[workinclasszero]

127. Obama is our nominee!

Fully "vetted" by the Clinton slime machine and their reich wing allies. Funny that Hillary's pathetic campaign is the one thats collapsing, not Obama's.

I can't wait to kick McCain's war monger ass in the GE and sent his anti american fear party to historic lows in Congress!

It will be a new day for America with President Obama and I can't wait!!!!!!


GOBAMA!!!:applause:

[HootieMcBoob]

133. On a recent visit to family in PA

I saw many, many Obama advertisements. It seemed like every time there was a commercial break I saw an advertisement for Barak Obama, including a lot during sport events like baseball. I saw only one Clinton ad the whole time. He's outspending her by a ton there.

Also, my Mother-inlaw who was supporting Hillary has switched her allegiance to Obama. It was the Bosnia thing that did it for her.

[book_worm]

135. I think PA Dems are waking up to the fact that the party is being torn apart

and want to end this and that may be one reason why Obama is surging in all the latest polls.

[ecdab]

143. That's what I'm thinking as well, but I won't buy that Obama has

won PA until it has been officially called for him - and hopefully none of the Obama supporters busting their butts in PA buy into that either and start to relax. This a chance to end this primary season in every meaningful way and move on to the real fight against the GOP. That has got to be attractive to many undecided PA voters - that has got to fire up every Obama supporter, and keep that fire burning bright until PA has been brought home.

[JBoy]

136. Hillary needs to win by 20+ points, so yes this will be an upset. n/t

[wowimthere]

140. stop taking voters for granted. Obama may just win because...

what people do in the voting booth may surprise you. They may say they like Clinton but that Obama is more qualified and since no one is looking they may vote for him against conventional wisdom in PA. It wouldn't be the first time it happened. Sometimes people vote for change and it could happen in PA. Race may not be the entire voting reality this time. Remember, younger voters will trend toward Obama.

Remember also this state is ripe for vote rigging. Diebold is still at play in big cities like Philly.

[samsingh]

145. Obama's got momentum - he may break away soon

[GoesTo11]

146. On the ground

I am starting to think that the line is true. This extended campaign might really benefit the eventual nominee by energizing the grassroots in key late states. I didn't think so before, but this poll indicates a level of excitement and action on the Obama side.
In toss-up states it might make a big difference in November. Especially if the party remembers to unite.

[RBInMaine]

148. If he were able to upset her in PA then IT IS OVER !!

[mdmc]

149. nice