Midwest Express: A Campaign Rooted In the Heartland - WSJ

[question everything]

June 2, 2004

CAPITAL JOURNAL
By GERALD F. SEIB


The presidential campaign may seem complicated, but deep down it's pretty simple: It's all about the Midwest. If the 2000 campaign was decided, famously, in Florida, the balance this year will be tipped in Ohio, Missouri, Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin.

That's significant for a lot of reasons, but especially this one: While Iraq seems to dwarf all other concerns nationally, a Midwest focus to this campaign ensures that the economy will return as a central issue as November draws near. However else it may resemble the rest of the country, the industrial Midwest is different because economic concerns weigh more heavily there than elsewhere.

This economic preoccupation is making Democrat John Kerry look pretty good in the Midwest right now. When pollster John Zogby recently surveyed the five main Midwest battleground states3 for The Wall Street Journal Online, he found Mr. Kerry ahead in four of them. But the findings are volatile and subject to significant change in the next five months.

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Throughout the region, notes independent, Michigan-based pollster Ed Sarpolus, state governments have been hit by the economic downturn and are running deficits. That hurts state services and robs some firms of state contracts and the jobs that go with them.

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It all mixes up into a volatile brew. Predictions at this point are hazardous -- as illustrated by the fact that Mr. Zogby, surveying for WSJ.com last month, found Mr. Kerry up by 4.6% percentage points in Ohio, while a new survey by the Cleveland Plain Dealer in the same state shows Mr. Bush up by six percentage points. Expect more turbulent weather, and a race as likely to be decided in Ohio as anywhere.

Write to Gerald F. Seib at [e-mail]

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