14 Days post Bosnia - 7 negative Clinton stories - 4 PA polls show HRC support plummets

[grantcart]

On March 18 bloggers start to question Hillary's claim of dodging sniper fire. Nearly two weeks have passed and the Clinton campaign has lost all ability to have any impact at all on the campaign narrative or the news cycle. A careful examination of Google shows that the major stories following the Bosnia report was debunked on CBS on March 25 (http://newsbusters.org/blogs/rich-noyes/2008/03/18/hillary-shot-96-no-media-mention-bosnia-sniper-fire) seven high profile negative stories have dominated the news cycle. The only interuptions from this constant drumbeat of bad news was the April Fool Days joke challenging Obama to bowling and the Leno appearence which remarkable brought back sniper fire as a 'fun' topic for the Clintons.



A week later after it already is starting to get mileage CBS posts the definitive stunning report:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8BfNqhV5hg4


A careful examination shows that from that time on the Clinton campaign lost control of the campaign narrative. Leading up to that point there was endless repetition of the controversial Wright videos. Now came a cascade of defensive positions which dominate the campaign narrative;


1)-Clinton Vows To Stay in Race To Convention
March 29th she grants an unusual interview with the Washington Post and the headline reads

Clinton Vows To Stay in Race To Convention - It reflects the major news story (besides Bosnia) in the next several days of the news cycles.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/29/AR2008032901909_pf.html
NEW ALBANY, Ind., March 29 -- In her most definitive comments to date on the subject, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton sought Saturday to put to rest any notion that she will drop out of the presidential race, pledging in an interview to not only compete in all the remaining primaries but also continue until there is a resolution of the disqualified results in Florida and Michigan.

CNN still runing the story as the main narrative on April 1st.
http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/04/01/democrats.pa/index.html

2)Cash-strapped Clinton fails to pay bills
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9259.html
Next comes an onslaught of reports that She is not paying her bills
Hillary Rodham Clinton’s cash-strapped presidential campaign has been putting off paying hundreds of bills for months — freeing up cash for critical media buys but also earning the campaign a reputation as something of a deadbeat in some small-business circles.

A pair of Ohio companies owed more than $25,000 by Clinton for staging events for her campaign are warning others in the tight-knit event production community — and anyone else who will listen — to get their cash upfront when doing business with her. Her campaign, say representatives of the two companies, has stopped returning phone calls and e-mails seeking payment of outstanding invoices. One even got no response from a certified letter.



3)Clinton convention strategy in doubt
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9298.html
Clinton strategy depends on a convention floor fight
If the fight over whether to count the results in Florida and Michigan makes it to the Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton will not have enough pledged votes on the 169-member Credentials Committee to deliver a majority decision in her favor, according to an analysis conducted for Politico.


4)Bill Clinton's tirade stunned some delegates
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2008/04/02/BAVNVU2PJ.DTL&type=printable

The former president then went on a tirade that ran from the media's unfair treatment of Hillary to questions about the fairness of the votes in state caucuses that voted for Obama. It ended with him asking delegates to imagine what the reaction would be if Obama was trailing by just 1 percent and people were telling him to drop out.

5) Clintons made $109 million since 2000
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080405/ap_on_el_pr/clinton_taxes

"I have absolutely nothing against rich people," Hillary Clinton told North Dakota Democrats at their party convention Friday night in Grand Forks. "As a matter of fact, my husband — much to my surprise and his — has made a lot of money since he left the White House doing what he loves doing most, talking to people."


6)Clinton Strategist Lobbied for Trade Pact She Opposes
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/05/us/politics/05penn.html?ref=politics

The Colombians hired Mr. Penn in his role as chief executive of Burson-Marsteller, one of the nation’s leading public relations firms, to help secure passage of the trade pact. President Bush supports the trade deal; Mrs. Clinton has opposed it as unfavorable to American workers. Her campaign confirmed her opposition again on Friday after news of Mr. Penn’s work on behalf of the pact was disclosed in an article in The Wall Street Journal.

7)Chief Strategist of Clinton Campaign Steps Down
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/06/us/politics/06cnd-penn.html?_r=1&ex=1365220800&en=bb4848cb59d46f55&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss&oref=slogin
ALBUQUERQUE — Mark Penn, the architect of much of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s presidential campaign, has been replaced as the campaign’s chief strategist in the wake of revelations that he lobbied on behalf of a trade treaty with Colombia that Mrs. Clinton opposes.





PLUMMETING PENNSYLVANIA POLLS

The Polls in Pennsylvania are changing so fast that the Clintons have had to radically readjust their spin for the state. This was dramatically shown in the MEET THE PRESS Interview with Sen. Casey and Governor Randell today. When the campaign for Pennsylvania started in earnest Clinton was holding a 20+ point lead.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23980325/
MR. RUSSERT: Governor, let me start with you. Here's the Clinton campaign spokesman in Pennsylvania, "We operate from the assumption that Pennsylvania is Clinton country. ... We can build a team here that is unbeatable." Congressman John Murtha, who supports Hillary Clinton, "I think Hillary Clinton's going to win it by a double-digit figure. No question in my mind about that." "Unbeatable," "double-digit," you guys are pretty confident.

--Governor Rendell responds:
So I'm saying that we will win this state, but we'll win it somewhere between 5 and 9, 5 and 10 percentage points. But any victory over a man who outspends you 3-to-1 and is a good a campaigner as Barack Obama is, is an impressive victory.


So after the 20 point lead is cut in half then Governor Rendell does his job by cutting that down to between 5-9% as a necessary threshold for the Clinton campaign to use as a decisive victory.

WHAT THEN HAPPENED WAS EVEN MORE REMARKABLE - DURING THE INTERVIEW GOVERNOR RENDELL'S LOW LOW LOW BALL SPIN OF 5-9% IS REDUCED 20% BEFORE OUR VERY EYES AS AT THE END OF THE INTERVIEW HE CHANGES THE SPIN TO 4-8%:


GOV. RENDELL: Yeah, she--well, but big for Pennsylvania, Tim, when you look at history, is somewhere between four and eight, nine points. That's what's big.



MORE PENNSYLVANIA POLLS SHOWING DEAD HEAT



Around 3/15 the polls showed Clinton up by 26 points.


Let us look at

PPP

3/15 Clinton + 26
3/21 Obama + 2


ARG

3/26 Clinton + 12 points
4/5 Obama/Clinton now tied.


Rassmussen
3/5 Clinton +15
3/12 Clinton +13
3/24 Clinton + 10
3/31 Clinton + 5

Survey
3/10 Clinton + 19
3/29 Clinton + 12

The latest poll shows
April 3, 2008 — The latest InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Survey shows Sen. Hillary Clinton clinging to a 2-point lead in the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary. The telephone survey of likely registered Democratic voters, conducted April 2, has been weighted for age, race and gender. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.7%. The results are:

Clinton: 45%
Obama: 42%
Undecided: 12%*

Pennsylvania is starting to look a lot like that other famous fire wall state 'Wisconsin'
(Where PPP was the most accurate pollster and was the first poll to show an Obama lead - way ahead of the others)


Sorry phone call = be right back.


That was Ed Rendell, he just told me that anywhere between 3-5% would be absolutely terrific.

[ORDem]

1. Yep, the Tuzla shuffle really was the big turning point (well, one of many along the way ...

) like IA, Feb 4th, SC, WI, ...

Seriously, though, when she got caught with her pants down over the sniper story I think that just verified what people were trying to ignore about her, ... that she is just as big a liar as Bill when the pressure's on. Sad, really sad, as she has a lot to offer, otherwise.

:dem:

[GarbagemanLB]

2. 'Caught with her pants down'...please, I was just about to go to sleep.

[grantcart]

3. melatonin will help

[cliffordu]

5. Can I just stab myself with a fork instead???

[grantcart]

9. well the blood will contaminate the key board

[cliffordu]

13. LOL!

And, I forgot,

K&R!!!!


:kick:

[quantass]

44. ,

[Zhade]

12. Melatonin rules, and it's natural too!

Thanks for mentioning it, I'll grab some tonight!

Btw, great analysis as always.

[tammywammy]

14. I like valarian root

[ORDem]

43. Yep, it's great, always enhances my dreams, too. I find if I take too much

though, I wake up in the middle of the night. 500 mg seems just right.

:boring:

[grantcart]

49. just wanted to put this in at the top of the thread

[FrenchieCat]

4. And that story doesn't go away for the GE......with Hillary Clinton

as our nominee, the Tulsa liar stands next to a war hero POW. Now how's that contrast for you. She'll be sitting there talking about her experience, which has already been turned into a joke.

[Cooley Hurd]

8. It's a big, bad lie that might just end her political career...

It's made her vulnerable here in NY. I campaigned and voted for her twice, but the Tuzla tale just made it terribly difficult to defend her in the future.

[grantcart]

15. I wonder how she is going to be viewed in the Senate

they really don't like it when somebody gets too full of themselves.

More than anything else she is burning herself in the Senate. Maybe she wants to be Governor of NY?

[grantcart]

11. but the juxtaposition bewteen the vibrant Obama next to the confused McCain will

be the most jarring in our history.

Think of the debates. Lieberman will not be there to correct him. This is a guy who isn't even sure if condoms can help reduce STDs. And unlike Bush he won't be able to give the old aw schucks routine.

I can't wait

[Hutzpa]

6. Excellent post Grant

K&R


:kick:



Bookmarking those links for later.

[dchill]

7. Glad you got to the phone!

;)

[grantcart]

27. lol

[quantass]

39. .

[Zhade]

10. I wonder if she now regrets the lies.

Not because she lied, of course, but because they made her losing position even worse.

She has only herself to blame.

[grantcart]

16. actually she has Mark Penn to blame and thats why he is gone lol

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

17. Bookbag-gate, Obama doesn't want NC to vote-gate...

Bookbag-gate - she said when she heard about Martin Luther King's assasination,
she threw her bookbag across the room.

Even with her acting lessons, she still sounds phony. maybe not as shrill
but very fake.

[grantcart]

50. I missed that one

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

18. latest fairy tale or Clinton gate - she was against the war before Obama

they had it on CBS yesterday.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

19. I hope the tax return story doesn't disappear

what with it being put out with the Friday trash (news dump)

[Tarheel_Dem]

20. Grant, I don't know how you do it, but that is the most well researched

compilation, well.....since your last one :rofl: I always bookmark your stuff in case I need a quick reference.

Who would have thought a year ago that the most impressive political machine in decades would be turned upside down by a virtually unknown guy who got his start as a community organizer in Chicago? He has managed to build a national machine with grassroots everyday people, that is without equal. Color me very impressed.

:yourock:

[grantcart]

22. well that is very nice

the other day I saw somebody post a very intersting comment on the MSNBC and then I realized why I liked it so much -

They had copied it from my journal - it even had the small little typos lol - I loved it.

[Tarheel_Dem]

24. well, you're one of a handful of very talented DU'ers, so I'm not

surprised people rip you off.
:toast:

[bigbrother05]

38. Do tell

[DerekJ]

21. Thanks grantcart

:thumbsup:

[McCamy Taylor]

23. I see no plummet. I see Obama outspending Hillary cause he has cash.

Her numbers are still rising, his are just rising faster because he has more money.

W, had more money too.

[grantcart]

25. Her highest point in March was 56% and now it is showing at 45%

for a larger polling sampling the entire month of March had an average of 51% (16 polls) and that is now 46% in April (3 polls) which coincidental matches what she is getting in Gallup nationally.

http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

More significant is her fall in the same company polls

PPP had her at 56% and now has her at 43%

Rasmussen had her at 52% and now has her at 47%


But your right that the most dramatic drop is in her 'margin' of lead which now appears to be on the verge of 3-5%.


Another few days will see how the Penn stories hurt her in PA, but what you have not addressed is the fact that she has had two weeks of continuously bad news stories - oh yeah I forgot the whole media is conspiring against Hillary. Pretty clever of them to give Mark Penn hallucinogenics so that they could get him to accept $ 300,000 in lobbying fees from the same people who Hillary is on record of actually fighting.


As for the money you are correct in your admission that Obama has not only excited a larger base of supporters but has a deeper level of committment from them so that he can our raise not only the legendary Clintons but bury the feeble McCain.

[grantcart]

26. Rendell criticizes Penn, hints he should be fired

CNN) — A key backer of Hillary Clinton's White House bid gave her top strategist Mark Penn a less than ringing endorsement Sunday, following news Penn had met with the Colombian ambassador to promote a free trade agreement the New York senator opposes.

Appearing on NBC's Meet the Press, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell didn't exactly give the longtime Clinton pollster a vote of confidence.

Asked directly if the campaign should cut ties with Penn, Rendell said, "Well there are a lot of issues in which you can raise that question."

"Yeah, I think you've got to make it very clear for someone who is a consultant, who you are representing and who you are not representing and I would hope that Mr. Penn when he talked to the Colombians made that clear," Rendell also said. "And it doesn't sound to me like he did and that's something the campaign should take into question."

[Political Heretic]

32. Her numbers aren't rising. They're falling. Having more money isn't something you can criticize

I love this complaint from the Clinton side that somehow his success is somehow less legitimate because he outspends the Clinton campaign. Having more money, having a campaign that isn't in debt and that has plenty of cash on hand, and demonstrating the best ability to effectively raise money goes directly to the question of electability. The fact that he's outspending an opponent is an example of one of the many ways in which his campaign is better equipped to take the nomination and win the presidency.

Aside from that, Clinton is falling in national polls against Obama - who now enjoys his largest lead over Clinton that he has ever had in the campaign. She is also NOT graining ground in PA, she is losing it - her numbers have plumetted from a double digit lead over Obama to a TIE.

Against McCAin - Obama and Clinton both score the same in lastest polling - though that polling was from a few days ago.

[bvar22]

45. Hillary had more cash than Obama....

...when Campaign 2008 started.

More people prefer Obama.
More people send him money.
Case closed.

[grantcart]

46. that was when money wasn't dead to her

[grantcart]

47. can you see the plummet now?

[Scurrilous]

28. K & R

:thumbsup:

[Perry Logan]

29. Wow. Those media blitzes are effective.

[Political Heretic]

31. Yup, getting caught making ridiculous lies is a good way to get the media on your case.

Now of course they're scrutinizing everything she says ... she brought it on herself, and she deserves it.

[Perry Logan]

33. You should definitely spend some time with normal people.

[Political Heretic]

35. "normal people?"

Does that mean, people who agree with you only? :)

[grantcart]

36. So bottom line Obama is a much more effective politician than Hillary

[Window]

30. Well done.

:kick:

[rainbow4321]

34. K&R!

[quantass]

42. .

[quantass]

37. Wow..thanks for the collection....it's everywhere!

[grantcart]

40. CNN: Clinton drops 4 points over the weekend in PA

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

Poll of polls: Race tightens in Pennsylvania
Posted: 10:49 AM ET

The race appears to be narrowing in Pennsylvania.
(CNN) — The Democratic presidential race is tightening in the key state of Pennsylvania, according to a new CNN analysis of recent polls there.

In the latest CNN "poll of polls," Hillary Clinton now holds a 7 point lead over Obama, 49 percent to 42 percent. Nine percent remain unsure of their vote.

That gap is 4 points narrower than a similar CNN poll of polls conducted Friday. In that average, Clinton held an 11 point lead, 51 percent to 40

[grantcart]

41. Now on CNN every hour

[grantcart]

48. confirming the nationwide effect here

[phrigndumass]

51. Rendell was calling from this phone here ...

[grantcart]

53. lol

[Arkana]

52. Meanwhile, Hillary folks are screeching bloody murder

about Obama using the phrase "a bunch of stuff".

These people are absolutely paranoid to the point of it being funny. They think he hates women, that he's a secret Republican, that he's somehow conspired in millions of dollars of illegal land deals with Tony Rezko, that he's a closet racist...meanwhile, they willfully turn a blind eye to their own candidate's faults.

[grantcart]

54. evening kick

[Zachstar]

55. There is indeed a small chance that Obama can win PA.

The problem for Clinton is that events take around a week to significantly reach the voters and affect their outcomes.

This means Clinton has to do some major good within about a week to get it back above 10 percent. And with her stories being shot down and with Penn out of the main (Will cause chaos within the campaign) this will be difficult.

Meanwhile Obama's steady approach wins big support all over the place.

[grantcart]

57. she may have to fire Penn twice

[Zachstar]

58. Normally I would say that is almost impossible politically but Clinton has made many mistakes.

Joking about sniper fire cost her support. So if she fires him twice it will be on the news for double cycles.

[grantcart]

59. and then the third cycle raising questions about somebody that cannot only

hire the right person correctly but cannot fire the right person correctly.

[PerfectSage]

56. Kick& Recommend

[grantcart]

62. need sun glasses for that

[RazBerryBeret]

60. I'm dreading what is going to happen

RIGHT before PA gets to vote. Here in Ohio, 4 days before the primary is when all the Nafta and Healthcare shit hit the fan. I credit that with her win here. Knowing that she is now desperate, who knows what she will do or say. sorry to sound negative, but I'm still pissy about it.

[Eurobabe]

66. Yes, those caged beings

will do strange things. Who knows what crap she will come up with?

[Cha]

61. hilary is her own worst and just needed

more rope which mark penn has greedily given her..those two! Whose idea was the Bosnian Sniper LIE to be injected when talking to the military?

[McCamy Taylor]

63. Polls don't look bad considering you proved a media conspiracy and Obama is outspending her in PA

NIce work documenting the media conspiracy to attack Hillary. Do you think the oppo is coming from the RNC or Obama or that the MSM does not want to see Hillary get the nomination because they are afraid that she will bust the telecoms?

[StevieM]

64. Clinton never said Wisconsin was a firewall. Quite the opposite.

She basically yielded the state to him. Obama outspent her 5 to 1 and she only campaigned there for a weekend, while he campaigned for 7 straight days. And, of course, he wouldn't debate her in the state.

Steve

[TexasObserver]

65. She barely broke even on Texas, Ohio, Vermont, & RI, but won't concede.

She knows she has lost. This is not about winning the nomination. It's about feeding her needy ego. She loves being a presidential candidate, and will milk every moment for the delusion that feeds that undeserved ego. If she can hobble Democrats for the general election, that's a bonus to her, since in her world of delusion, she will come back in 2012 to win it.

She's finished in this party. She won't even get a cabinet post now.

[Perry Logan]

67. Hey, wait a minute. I thought the corporate media wanted her to win...