Why would PA race suddenly tighten up? (April 5-6 ARG: 45-45)

[npincus]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/padem8-704.html

One WEEK ago, same poll was C 51- O 39, this after Bosnia sniper-gate had hit the fan. My feeling is that the April 4 reporting of the the Clinton's $109 million gross income since their departure from office has somehow turned off many of her supporters there. Thoughts?

[panader0]

Maybe Mark Penn talking trade with Columbia will drop it more

Remember when Hillary expressed outrage that one of Obama's guys had spoken with a Canadian official?

[Texas Hill Country]

19. actually PA is a net exporter and the Sony factory there has HUGE exports to Columbia...

i dont think that was really a factor... could be wrong tho

[Cessna Invesco Palin]

1. This has happened in a lot of the contests.

Hillary starts out with a big advantage, which suddenly takes a dive as soon as the campaign in that particular state heats up. However, the polling has been all over the place this year so I wouldn't read too much into it.

[40ozDonkey]

2. Obama went on a weeklong bus tour, didn't he?

I thought last week he was making stops all over the state with the Steelers? Maybe that did it, they actually got to know him.

[Boz]

3. Thats the general pattern, once he comes "off the teevee" people shift and that patten has repeated

in every state that he has had about a 3 week window on.

[maximusveritas]

9. Yep, the only thing that's hurt him

in that situation is people committing early before seeing him locally. PA doesn't really have early voting, so it shouldn't hurt him too bad. I still expect a loss, but close enough that the race will be over after NC and IN.

[jn2375]

4. Bob Casey helped here, plus he's on TV and radio alot!

the 6 day bus tour also helped with rural voters, and blue collar workers


Don't see much Hillary advertising on tv, havent heard any Hillary ads on the radio just Obama's. Only saw her new 3am ad last night, doesn't seen very impressive, kind of silly.

[Avalux]

5. PA has lost trust in Hillary. She won't be able to regain it.

She had a 20 point lead 2 weeks ago. Lots of jokes about the people in rural PA, blue collar workers, etc...they might not have college degrees but they aren't stupid.

[Sensitivity]

6. This is pre operation PA Kitchen Sink. -- just watch, they will find a smear for election week

[jimshoes]

7. They've been playing

Archie Bell & The Drells on the Oldies Station?:evilgrin:

[tnlefty]

10. Oh man, I just spit water all over my shirt!

:rofl: Thanks for the laugh. :thumbsup:

[endarkenment]

8. It is over. nt.

[Perky]

11. I think it is largely due to people thinking it is over or wanting it to end.

I am like "wow" over the largess but it certainly am mpot offended by it.

[ORDem]

12. Simple: sniper-gate on top of an already suspicious public feeling

about the Clintons' honesty. Her honesty/trustworthy rating has been dropping like a rock in numerous polls (see the one today from N.C. Observer for example). She rates lower than both Obama and McCain. It's the chickens coming home to roost.

:dem:

[Tesha]

13. More and more people are re-evaluating their commitment to Hillary

In light of everything that she and her campaign staff
stand for?

Tesha

[progdog]

14. Sorry for this but

the closer it is the easier it is to fix. :tinfoilhat:

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

15. Because the real campaigning started?

Clinton was up by a huge margin in every state until the campaigning really started.

[book_worm]

16. Dems are beginning to feel this is getting out of hand and want it to end sooner rather than later

and so I think some of them are sending Hillary a message--get out.

[Buzz Clik]

17. We need to wait and see if this is a real trend or simply a blip.

Pollster.com still has Hillary ahead by 8 or 9 points. I think that's reasonable.



Raw data: http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

[Orsino]

18. I doubt it's the tax returns.

I think we're seeing Obama name recognition. He started the campaign with little or none in PA, and time is on his side. He's no longer "Obama who?" He is Clinton's rival, who is now known to be leading nationally.

It would surprise me if he could win Pennsylvania, but his closing the gap is only to be expected.

[scheming daemons]

20. Several reasons....

1) Residual effect of the Obama bus tour

2) the Clinton Income Tax Friday dump

3) the Mark Penn story

4) the air of inevitability that is starting to surround Obama

5) the beginnings of the hospital-flap.

6) the reported donations of both campaigns for March (feeds #4).

[crankychatter]

21. People work crazy hours to care for their families

they get 20 minutes of news per night...

The campaign comes to town... they get exposure and information

then they vote for Barack

makes sense to me