Is it over if Hillary loses PA?

[kentuck]

Some pollsters are now calling it an even race. They are tied. Is PA the last firewall? How does she continue if she loses PA?

Although the latest polls may be an exception, since the majority show her to be about 9-10 points up on Obama, would a defeat in PA be the end of her campaign for the Presidency? Would the negativity on DU finally cease? Could we finally unite behind a ticket?

[endarkenment]

1. The former goalpost was she had to win big in PA

and that was after the goal post was she had to win big in Texas. The Clinton campaign is in zombie mode. It is already over.

[BuyingThyme]

2. Yes, and I never say it's over.

But I don't believe those polls.

[GarbagemanLB]

3. It was over for Hillary after she didn't win big in TX and OH...probably earlier, actually.

[Pirate Smile]

6. After the Wisconsin win it was over. Winning Ohio and Texas (supposedly)

and Rhode Island didn't change anything.

[BklynChick]

4. yes, i believe if she loses she will stop. but i think she'll eek out a small win and continue to

torture us.

[GodlessBiker]

5. No. Bill has said North Carolina is very important to Hillary's chances.

[Arugula Latte]

20. Yeah...Good luck with that one, Billie Boy. nt

[GodlessBiker]

27. Yeah. He might have picked a different state.

[kentuck]

29. Bill is in Puerto Rico today - which has 63 delegates..

Which is more than all the states that are left after IN and NC... Bill hasn't given up.

[anigbrowl]

53. I think that's an attempt to lay the ground for a dignified exit myself

I expect her to pull out a small win in PA, and the result there might tip Indiana in her favor (haven't seen any Indiano polls in recent days). But it's been clear for a while that Barack Obama will probably win big in NC, and it's also (fairly) clear that the Clinton campaign is not doing well on the money front. If he hammers her in NC it gaves them a graceful way to say 'ouch, that's too much to recover from'. All the talk about pledged delegates not being really pledged and SDs being the deciders and yadda yadda yadda will blow away like smoke in the wind. MI and FL will be seated with their original votes, Obama will get MI's undecideds, and he'll still have a strong lead.

I think Governor of NY is an increasingly likely role for Hillary.

[antigop]

7. No, it won't be over if she still gets contributions

And, no, I am not an HRC supporter. Never have been.

As long as there still is a chance (possible, not probable) of winning the nomination, I think she will keep going.

jmo

[HereSince1628]

15. It's never wrong to follow the money

And you are right. If her money dries up she'll drop out. Short of that, she's in it till it's over.

[onehandle]

8. Dunno. Neither candidate will have the required number of delegates even then. nt

[kentuck]

10. But, if she loses PA....?

Don't you think a large number of the super delegates will then commit to Obama?

[onehandle]

14. mmm...Maybe. nt

[Life Long Dem]

9. Tied? It's not even close. Obama has over 150 more delegates currently than Hillary

There is only one way SD's will go because it is not close. 1500 TO 1500 delegates is close or 1500 to 1501 is close. And you could then see SD's deciding this but it is NOT close.

I opened this page and for my amusement I was catapulted into Disneyland!

[endarkenment]

26. Tied is the new spin.

They have nothing else. But the Clinton campaign died two weeks ago over her Bosnian Delusion and is now in zombie mode.

[John Q. Citizen]

31. Tied, as in PA is tied, not as in the whole primary is tied was what the OP meant I think.

[leftofcool]

11. Probably not, there is more news to come...I have heard anyway

[DevonRex]

40. If you're still talking about Edwin Gray...

you might want to look him up in Wikipedia. Also here: http://thatsrightnate.wordpress.com/2008/04/07/obama-rezko-apology/

[crankychatter]

12. a well known DUer/Clinton supporter is promoting an Independent Run for her

He's carefully couching his language to stay under the radar of DU rules... but look at some of these kooks that back her? WHY ELSE would she be harping about Michigan and Florida if she didn't plan on trashing the convention with litigation and staged walk-outs?

I think we should hope for the best but plan for the worst.

I will dedicate myself to registering voters in Missouri full time until November. I'm moving to KC the first. I might even pack up like I did for Katrina and live in my truck, on my pension... work for free.

At least this indicates that reality is FINALLY sinking in for them. Voters in PA will follow suit... then it all tumbles down.

[Alter Ego]

16. I'm going to go ahead and guess that his name

rhymes with "Galoogian".

[Lerkfish]

23. ah. the Lieberman strategy.

wouldn't surprise me at all.

[John Q. Citizen]

39. She doesn't have time to get on ballots unless she started last month. Plus she's not

financially capable unless she wants to spend her own money, which I doubt she wants to.

Also, she has been engaged of late in positive activities, doing fundraisers for state parties, and such.

I think a third party run by Clinton may have been thought about, but dismissed. While I have no doubt she'd do it if she thought she could win, I seriously doubt she thinks she could win. Her constituency would be 10-15% percent of the democratic party and not much more.

Moderate Repos would vote McCain, or Obama, or Clinton, right wing Repos will vote McCain, if they vote, and most Dems will vote Obama.

Independents will go to Obama or McCain.

If fact, if Clinton ran as an independent, it would probably help Obama win. The pro war vote would be split between Clinton and McCain.

The problem with the Lieberman strategy is that Clinton can't count on the Repo vote the way Joe could in CT.

[crankychatter]

41. excellent post, thanks... question?

So, if she's still earnestly after the nomination by hook or by crook... she has to know what the perception of unfair usurpation of the nomination will do to her chances in November... not to mention her political career...

Then, is it really about hoping Obama loses so she can take it in 2012?

I just find this SO incredible...

If Obama had between now and November to campaign solely against McCain, it's my belief it will be the biggest landslide in US History.

seriously... if you see this... I need clarity. (inasmuch as that's possible for me ;--P )

[John Q. Citizen]

59. I think she's going for a hail Mary. If she pisses everybody off now, her chances in 1012 aren't

going to be any better.

I think she figures this year any Dem can beat McCain.

[Alter Ego]

13. It's over now, but she won't lose PA.

However, she won't win it by any kind of margin where it'll make a difference.

[Milo_Bloom]

17. Its over if she doesn't win by 15 or more.

[BlooInBloo]

18. I woulda said 10, but yah.

[not_too_L8]

19. Doesn't count... PA is dead to me

[crankychatter]

21. It's actually already over

MHO

[democrattotheend]

22. Absolutely

I have never called for her to drop out and I have cautioned Obama supporters against saying it's over. But I can't imagine she'd be able to continue if she loses PA...even some of her advisers concede that.

[City Lights]

24. Definitely.

Technically, she needs to win PA by close to 20 points to be viable, but I know she'd consider it a big victory for herself even if she won by 1 point. I just don't see how she could spin a PA loss (no matter how small) into a reason for her to remain in the race. I doubt we'll be faced with that scenario though. No matter how badly I'd love to see an Obama victory in PA and an end to the primary, I think she'll squeak out a victory and carry on.

[NorthCarolina]

25. Public Policy Polling has Obama ahead in PA 45-43

as of April 2, 2008.

Link: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Penn_Release_040208.pdf

[C_U_L8R]

28. Was it over when the German's bombed Pearl Harbor?

It's not over until Hillary says it's over

[kentuck]

32. Or when the Japanese blitz-krieged Poland ?

:-)

[GalleryGod]

43. BLUTARSKI! There you are, Senator!

EOM

[Perky]

30. If she loses PA, NC, Indiana and Oregon fall in rapid succsession

She if she falls further behind in the PV, by guess is that she will face tremendous pressure to shut it down.

She can't catch up in PV. He has won a big state. I just think she will be out of arguments.



If they spit the Delegates Obama would only need 100 ,more of the Supers. If he gets 55% of the remaining he only needs 70 of the 355 delegates remaining.

Her oly play at theat point is a nasty floor fight and I am not conviced the Superdelegates she has locked up... would stay locked up.

[BlueIdaho]

33. Its over now

Her campaign is in its death throes.

Look Away.

[IndyHatedByBothSides]

34. How does she continue if she looses PA?

As McCain's VP on the Republican ticket. Nothing would surprise me about the neo-cons, including those of the DLC variety.

[truebrit71]

35. No. It is already over for her. PA will simply be the final nail coffin.

Ding! Dong! etc etc

[book_worm]

36. The chorus in the party asking her to withdraw if she loses or comes or wins narrowly in PA will be

deafening.

[grantcart]

37. Hillary drops 4 points in 3 days CNN

Poll of polls: Race tightens in Pennsylvania
Posted: 10:49 AM ET

The race appears to be narrowing in Pennsylvania.
(CNN) — The Democratic presidential race is tightening in the key state of Pennsylvania, according to a new CNN analysis of recent polls there.

In the latest CNN "poll of polls," Hillary Clinton now holds a 7 point lead over Obama, 49 percent to 42 percent. Nine percent remain unsure of their vote.

That gap is 4 points narrower than a similar CNN poll of polls conducted Friday. In that average, Clinton held an 11 point lead, 51 percent to 40 percent.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

[JayFredMuggs]

45. Why are CNN polls always so favorable to Clinton when others are not?

I'm just curious. Other polls have Obama and Clinton even, or even Obama slightly ahead.

Looks like the CNN polls are always a few days slow.

Just curious if anyone knows. Grantcart, you know a heck of a lot, so I asked here.

[anigbrowl]

54. It's a poll-of-polls. And...

there was on the other day giving her an 11 point lead, though it had a small sample size and cam from a PA newspaper, the Morning Call. And even they say her lead is shrinking, although that poll is all that's keeping her numbers up right now. I don't know if CNN or RCP weights for differences in margin of error (you can calculate the margin of error for a given confidence interval from the sameple size of a poll) but I'm guessing not.

I am fine if there are some polls showing her doing better than most of the others. I think she can win by a small margin in PA, but I would really like to see Obama win because it would finish the argument for most people. So I don't want her getting a sympathy/stay-alive vote.

[Shine]

38. She'll probably win PA, but it won't be a blowout like she'd hoped

and it'll STILL be over for her, anyway.

From what I understand, there's NO way she can win the nomination due to simple math.

[GalleryGod]

42. You Efin' Bet! A WOODEN STAKE IN THE HEART

And Hillbots?

GFY,Ya' Kamikazes !

[locker13]

44. actually its already over

no matter what happens in PA

[DevonRex]

46. It's already over. n/t

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

47. it was over in Texas, which she lost. she can win PA by 30, and she'd still

need landslides every else, too. it's over. it's been over.

will she quit?

no.

[gcomeau]

48. It's over...

...if Hillary doesn't win by about 20 points. Meaning, it's over. She just refuses to acknowledge it, and her supporters won't do it until she does.

[billyoc]

49. The Clinton campaign will fight until the last donation. nt

[Cheap_Trick]

50. exclusive pic! Hillary of Arc's team hard at work

[chill factor]

51. it is over...long over

Hillary would need to win at 64% of the vote in all remaining contests, but one (PA) where she would need to win 65% of the vote to secure the lead in pledged delegates. I do not see that happening. http://www.slate.com/id/2185278/

Penn being let go is a farce....he still has his hands in the Clinton kettle. :puke:

[me b zola]

52. It depends on what "over" means

As many in this thread have already said, in reality it is already over. But I don't believe that the Clinton camp will stop until and unless Obama hits the magic number of delegates. This is why, imo, the SDs are picking up steam in getting behind Obama.

[knixphan]

55. "No captain...your men are already dead...'

-Agent Smith

[shagsak]

56. nope

She's gonna push through to the bitter end. I just hope there's enough Democratic pieces left to put together a good campaign for WHOEVER by November.

[harun]

57. It has been over for quite a while now, PA only means something

if Hillary wins by about 50 pts. She will likely lose it so result will stay the same, Obama is the nominee.

[Texas Hill Country]

58. I would say yes. It is admittedly crucial to her argument