Barack Obama will crush John W. McCain.

[milkyway]

It's been more than a little amusing reading of all the "Obama can't win" talk coming from the Clinton camp--"He can't win! Just wait until voters find out he's black!"--but rarely do we hear the obvious from anyone: Obama is going to win by a large margin in November.

Obama will be running as the nominee of a party that has seen enormous gains in voter registration, involvement, and fundraising, and whose policies almost across-the-board are favored by a strong majority of voters.

John W. McCain, on the other hand, has been the presumptive nominee of his party for weeks now, but yet even republicans can't muster any enthusiasm for his candidacy, with donations barely trickling in to him. And he will be running on the historically despised Bush platform--only 14% of Americans believe that the country is heading in the right direction, and John W. wants to keep going in this same direction. Good luck.

Some people will point to recent head-to-head polls showing McCain with a slight lead on Obama, but those polls are not very useful right now. McCain has been the presumptive nominee, while Obama is still in a somewhat divisive nominating contest. In time, as the party rallies around Obama and as voters become more comfortable with this appealing, yet to some still unfamilar, candidate, Obama will take a commanding lead in these polls.

At worse, Obama will win the electoral vote in November by at least 40 votes, and probably much more. Looking at the 2004 actual results at 270towin.com, Obama should win all of the Kerry states, with Pennsylvania the only state in danger of flipping.

But Obama should pick up these republican states: Iowa, Virginia, Colorado, New Mexico, and Nevada. If he does, he beats John W. 291-247--and this is without Ohio or Florida. Ohio, along with a number of other states like Missouri, North Dakota, North Carolina, and even Texas are all possible Obama pickups (note to Dems: stop chasing after Florida, only to watch it be stolen).

So enough with the "he can't win" nonsense. Almost any Dem candidate would win this November, and a strong candidate like Obama will win easily. The goal is to bring along a strong Congressional majority with a 60-Dem Senate so Obama can get things done, with a successful Obama presidency ushering in a generation of progressive dominance in American politics.

[underpants]

1. I agree. The Repubs are involved in a campaign of self-delusion with Rove's maps

basically they have worked up numbers to make it look like they are still in control, still a force to be reckoned with, and (most importantly) laying the groundwork for the voting machine numbers they are going to try to slip by everyone again.

More here

http://thinkprogress.org/2008/04/06/rove-maps-mccain/



Oh and McCain has envergized young voters too

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/04/06/fox-news-sunday-mccain-thinks-hes-energized-young-voters/

“…It’s pretty clear that Senator Obama and Senator Clinton have energized the younger voters and I believe I have and I believe I’ve got to compete on that grounds too. That’s why I go on shows that young people watch, so I’m not sure that the old red state, blue state scenario that prevailed for the last several elections really works.”

[Bensthename]

2. Yup, Obama has the money and enthusiasm. McCain has no money and not even a base for support,.

Again, the math is in his favor. And obama's intelligence will trump McCain's in the debates.

[AlinPA]

3. I hope you are right about this. But the 24/7 pastor junk will be the

centerpiece of the republicans' campaigns. Dont' forget God, Guns, Gays and Flags. Once they crank up their flag waving and the hated for gay people, creationism, and the other religion stuff, as well as his miltary hero story, McCain will be tough to beat. They don't need to talk about the Iraq situation or any economic issues.

[Bensthename]

5. NOT OBAMA's words.. Thus the reason that issue is dead.. And will only look desperate

if the GOP try to use it..

"Obama may be right on the war and economy, but rememmber what his pastor said"?
That isnt going to work. And that is why it did not hurt him.
That will be old nothing news this fall.

[AlinPA]

7. 'Murcans are stupid. Look how many voted for Bush** when they pushed the patriotism

(Iraq) and the gay marriage stuff. McCain was a POW and showing those clips of him returning from his experience over and over and over with flags all over the TV will be tough to beat.

[milkyway]

6. By November, the economy will be worse and Iraq will be worse, and they'll both be

permanently glued to John W.

The repugs messed up with the Jeremiah Wright stuff. It couldn't have come out at a better time for Obama--in March, with no primary in sight, and eight months until the general. And the never-ending clips of Wright have almost numbed people to their effect. While they may be startling to some people at first, the constant media attention has dulled their shock value. If the so-called Dean Scream had happened in such a prolonged dead period, he might have won the nomination. As it was, he was closing strongly in New Hampshire the last couple of days, but didn't have enough time between Iowa and N.H. to overcome the fallout.

[Scriptor Ignotus]

14. $4 a gallon gasoline is going to trump all of those old cliches

it won't be hard to tie McCain to Bush on Iraq...or the economy.

[GrandmaJones7]

24. The only Pastor we need to focus on right now is Rev. Wright

-Obama's "Minister of HATE!" There is no way we can win with THAT Albatross around - BUT, might I point out that Hillary's closet is CLEAN of such skeletons!

Obamabots - switch back to Hillary's folb before its too late! We NEED you!!

[easy_b94]

4. John W. McCain. HA

[FrenchieCat]

8. Agreed.....

when McCain start to speak, eyes glaze over!

[Flabbergasted]

9. Agree. kr

[ORDem]

10. Yes he will! All the "support" for McCain in the national polls right now is vapor.

He was not put through the wringer in this primary season and has hardly been looked at in the nascent GE race to this point. People who support him have just some vague "straight talk" impression of him. When they get a closer look and when they see how he (mis)handles himself in the live thick of things as the months go on they are going to turn away from him in droves. Most Goopers are not too fond of him to begin with and a lot of them will just stay home (unless HRC steals the nomination).

Obama will get elected in a landslide I predict.

:dem:

[knixphan]

11. agreed

[billbuckhead]

12. By the time the GOP and their media allies are done..................

Hillary's opponent will get 43% of the vote. Whites and Hispanics will rally around the white candidate.

[wowimthere]

13. Agreed! K&R

[Scurrilous]

15. K & R

:thumbsup:

[samsingh]

yes

[samsingh]

16. yes

[Kablooie]

17. Well, John McCain will crush -- uh -- cockroachs. If he can catch them. So there!

[hollowdweller]

18. If he can catch up with Hillary so quick and she's mostly right on the issues he'll slay Mc Cain

Just on the issues he'll whack Mc Cain

[LibertyorDeath]

19. Like a Bug !!!

Cheers!!

Rec!

[AtomicKitten]

20. Obama will make McCain cry like a little girl.

[Carrieyazel]

21. Nobody is crushing anybody in this general election. You don't know what you're talking about.

A 291-247 electoral victory is actually very close. And no one will win this "easily" either. This election will be won by 1-3 points maximum in the popular vote, even with that 44 EV margin as one of the possibilites.

North Dakota, North Carolina and Texas "possible" for Obama? That's ludicrous. And to think Virginia will be an easy pick-up is ridiculous. You've obviously never spent time there. Obama will not win a general in that state. Nevada and New Mexico are not going Obama, either. McCain is from next door.

If Obama were a strong candidate, he'd be up by at least 10 points in the popular vote against a dying party's candidate. He isn't, and he won't be this entire campaign.

[Bensthename]

22. You shouldn't be so hard on Hillary. Being able to beat her says alot about Obama.

[GrandmaJones7]

23. Correct! Which is why wee need to

NOMINATE HILLARY!!!!!!!! Only SHE can defeat McCain!

Besides, if we don't COUNT Michigan and ESPECIALLY Florida voters, his nomination will NOT be a legitimate one anyway! It will be Bush v. Gore all over!!!

Switch to Hillary NOW before its too late!

[jbm]

25. he won't win Missouri either..

he'll have votes in Kansas City, St Louis, and Columbia, but he won't get enough support in any of the other counties.(I'm being generous saying 'enough support' The correct term would be 'practically no support')

I'm pondering if Obama might be the first candidate to actually get fewer votes in the general than in the primary. Has that ever happened before?