A Rather Interesting North Carolina Poll

[Mattforclark]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/North%20Carolina%20Jun%203.htm

Bush 48%
Kerry 44%
Other 3%
Not Sure 5%

June 3, 2004--In North Carolina, the latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds President George W. Bush with 48% of the vote and Senator John F. Kerry with 44%.

Four years ago, Bush defeated Al Gore handily in North Carolina, 56% to 43%. However, he has failed so far to develop such a lead against John Kerry. A Rasmussen Reports survey, conducted in March found Bush up by eight points, 51% to 43%.

North Carolina is unusual this year in that poll results for 2004 do not reflect results similar to those from four years ago. Most other state polls, and our daily Tracking Poll, show that Election 2004 is beginning in about the same place that Election 2000 ended.

Fifty-five percent (55%) of North Carolina voters Approve of the way Bush is performing his job as President. That's down a couple of points from 57% in our March survey. However, it is several points above the President's national Job Approval rating.




It looks like North Carolina might just possibly be borderline-in-play even without Edwards. Looks like a definite boost to his VP chances.

[David Dunham]

1. With Edwards as VP, Kerry can win NC.

[bluestateguy]

2. This poll is good news... for Edwards

Without Edwards on the ticket I don't see NC in play. Gore was polling the same numbers in NC in 2000 before losing it by 12 points. There are a lot of media markets in NC and contesting it would be expensive. But if Edwards has VP hopes this poll must please him.

[mot78]

12. At the worst cae scenario, NC could be a "reverse New Jersey"

Where the polls look close, but the state will most likely go Repugs. This mirrors NJ's faux-swing state image.

[JI7]

3. the fact that Kerry is a northeastern, massachusettes democrat

and Bush still can't get majority support against someone like that says a lot about our chances in the state. not too long ago most said Kerry has no chance in the south and that he should/would write it off. but he is making an effort into virginia and putting a lot of resources into it.

[Darkamber]

4. These figures do look good...

Though I'd like to see what happens to them if Kerry picks someone besides Edwards as VP. I expect there might be a drop in the Kerry support as expectations could be very high in NC that Kerry will pick Edwards for VP.

At the same time, if Edwards is picked then those numbers for Kerry should go up and SC might also come into play. Win them or not, it would be great to make Bush spend money and time there and sweat it out.

[tameszu]

5. If we get a 2nd poll like this

Then, wow, NC is definitely in play. Actually, if NC is play, that pretty much means that Bush is going to be buried by a 300+ mudslide, unless he can massively turn things around...

[Bombtrack]

11. This IS the second poll like this

There was a poll showing Kerry-Edwards VERY close in NC, I think tied.

[GOPBasher]

6. Wow.

If Bush even has to campaign in NC, it would be a big boost to us.

[i_c_a_White_Ghost]

7. North Carolina is a Kool Aid state

they actually think "bush killing for Christ" is a good thing. Lost cause, next?

[Padraig18]

8. I disagree.

NC has been hit disproportionately hard by both the recession and the Iraq debacle. More than one poll shows it to be competitive, this one being just the latest.

[AP]

9. Furthermore, there's been a huge influx of people from all over the ...

...country into NC, and they're changing the demographics.

Interestingly, because of this -- I noticed that just about every time I watched Edwards meet and greet on CSPAN -- wherever you go around the country, you meet someone who knows someone in NC. NC is now the state everyone has a friend or relative in.

[Scoopie]

10. Yeah, I have a lot of friends and relatives there

but none of them like Edwards.

[Padraig18]

15. My sister and brother-in-law live there, and they say DEMS love him.

They say that he is the most popular Democrat in NC, bar none.

[AP]

16. I met NC'ians volunteering for him 1000s of miles from NC, who drove hours

to work in primary states who said incredibly moving things about what it meant to them for a democrat to finally stand up to the helms machine and give a voice to all the NC'ians who had been disenfranchised by the anti-democratic bullshit that had been going on in that state for decades.

The said that after Gant lost his runs they thought nobody would ever betat the helps machine.

[TexasSissy]

13. I like Edwards, but I thought he was unpop. in his home state...

same as Gore was. Kerry doesn't want a repeat...where a candidate can't bring in his own home state.

A poster here @ DU posted some time ago that N. Carolinians don't like Edwards at all, and one of the reasons he's not running for the Senate again is that he knows he'd lose. I don't know if that's true, personally.

Then there was the Kerry comment picked up by microphones, where he said, "The guy can't even win his own state."

So would Edwards help in this North Carolina duel between Bush & Kerry? I mean, is it REALLY a battleground state, so close that 1 or 2 percentage points would make the difference?

[leyton]

14. He gets mixed reactions at home.

Since people feel (and perhaps rightly so) that he hasn't given enough attention to NC and too much attention to national politics, there is a bit of backlash. I think Edwards would make NC competitive, but I think the main benefits are that he adds energy to the ticket, has a good economic message, and puts other Southern states into play as well. While Edwards doesn't have NC in his pocket, I think he and Kerry together could make inroads into the South - all those border states in particular.

The only Democrat that I think would have a strong, strong chance of carrying NC would be Jim Hunt, since he was elected governor four times and is widely respected across party lines. But I don't know how he'd run nationally, and I think if he wanted to be in national politics, he might have run for President himself by now.