The election...what REALLY worries me

[notbush]

We've got 2 BIG issues that will make the difference in November.
The economy and the war in Iraq.
Like it or not, even if Bush co had nothing to do with it, the economy is on the rebound.....has been for a year....jobs are even coming around.
You can cuss and spit and say "they're poor paying jobs,they're in the wrong sector, etc..." but if the number of jobs grows for the next 5 months like they have in the last 5......that's not good for our nominee......
If the new P.M of Iraq is able to stabilize things and we reduce our casualties (big if) we've lost our 2 BIG issues.
I'm a little worried that we're "putting all our eggs in 1 basket"
and that basket could be gone come November.

[Virginian]

1. If this war starts doing well,

he will just go out and start another one.

[bucknaked]

2. Sure, thank the guy who took what we once had, and gave it back...

...in lesser form, of course (ever met somebody who took a new job for more than they were laid off for?).

Put it this way... if you hired Chemlawn (for example) to spray herbicide on your lawn, and they killed all your grass... BUT agreed to re-sod your lawn for free... would you rehire them? Even though the messed up to begin with? ;)

[displacedtexan]

10. Excellent analogy!

My current favorite is the Diebold paper verification analogy: Would you use an ATM if you didn't get a receipt? Then why would you ever consider casting a vote without a way to verify your ballot choice(s)?

[ugarte]

3. I share your worries

That's why Kerry needs to talk about issues that are not subject to change between now and Nov.

1) Health care. Many, if not most, jobs being created nowadays don't provide it. The senior drug cards are a total fiasco.

2) Inflation is reborn. No matter how Bush spins it, a trip to the gas station and supermarket is all the evidence people need to know that their real income is shrinking.

3) The draft. People already think Bush will implement it after the election and are overwhelmingly against it. It is a ready-made visceral issue that will tilt decisively to Kerry if he will only take it.

[I thought so.]

4. Kerry has addressed all 3.

Have you been listening?

[I thought so.]

5. If you haven't noticed....

The BFEE can't do anything right. They can buggar the job numbers but the hard truth is there. The war is lost no matter what they do. The real corruption stories will be breaking soon and often.
The truth is that these assholes couldn't run an ant farm.

[OneBlueSky]

6. "the economy is doing well" is an illusion . . .

created by the powers that be to try to get whats-his-name re-selected . . . with a half-trillion dollar (not counting several very large items) government deficit, a decimated manufacturing base, the relentless oursourcing of most of the "good" jobs to India and Mexico (with absolutely no consequences to the oursourcers, I might add), a gargatuan trade deficit, a huge housing bubble that's funding upper middle class lifestyles through continuous refinancings based on inflated property values, etc, etc, etc, the notion that this economy is anything but on the brink is ludicrous . . .

unfortunately, the corporate media are heavily invested in perpetuating the illusion, so they certainly aren't going to be telling things like they really are . . . and since that's where joe and jane sixpack get their "news," they won't know how bad thing are until the proverbial bottom falls out . . . which, barring some drastic measures that are anathema to BushCo, it most assuredly will . . . it's just a matter of when, and how bad it will be . . .

and that's all I have to say about that . . .

[Hippo_Tron]

11. But the people out of work sure as hell know why...

I don't think it's Iraq that's putting Kerry ahead in the polls. I think it's the fact that people don't have decent jobs, don't have healthcare, and their children are going to crappy schools. Despite what the media says, people know who's fault it is and they want change.

[iconoclastic cat]

20. Like me!

Me: Classic ticket-splittin', uber-indie, research-driven informed voter with 2-count 'em-2 freakin' Master's degrees, and where have I been for the last few months? Looking for a job. (And loitering at DU)
Does anyone need someone with my skills? The laws of probability say they must.
Can they hire me? NO. Why not, if the job scene is turning up?
Why are so many of my friends un/under/miserably employed?
If anything, hearing how well everything is going for other (likely fictional) people/professions is making me even more determined to cast my vote for Kerry.

[notbush]

7. I had hoped there might be some realists here...

There is 1....you others are riding on a prayer.
To often DU thread's are either hopelessly negative or euphorically optimistic.
The truth is somewhere in between.

[JayS]

8. I know we have too many eggs in one basket. It is a crap...

...shoot if the basket will make it until November. I've seen how Bush campaigns; I hope Kerry has also.

[Zynx]

9. For one thing, the economic news can't get any better than it is right now

With the higher energy prices, even if they back down next month, you are going to have a slow down from their lag effect that will hit in July and August.

Iraq, I think it is safe to assume Iraq is going to continue to be a basket case. If the capture of Saddam couldn't prompt an end to the violence, what can? Also, you have so many people who are now saying we shouldn't ahve gone in the first place that it doesn't matter if it does stabilize.

Additionally, we do have other issues:

1. Huge budget deficit
2. Healthcare
3. Education

[WVhill]

13. Not sure about

1. Huge budget deficit

Looks like the deficit is shrinking supposedly based on increased revenues.

[lancdem]

12. It's too late for the economy to help Bush

People have already made up their minds they don't like his stewardship of it.

[caffefwee]

14. That's true

People want to put the past four years behind them. It's like trying to get past a bad marriage. The country just wants to move on.

[flaminbats]

15. There is or will be a booming economy?

Who is the we that are putting our eggs into one basket?

It has been my view that Kerry will win this election by making the connection between our moral responsibilities as a people and the changing economic needs of our nation. I believe Kerry will be more able to deliver this message as a decorated Vietnam Vet than was Clinton or Gore.

Why waste time worrying about something you cannot control..when you can spend this time converting undecided voters to Kerry?

[Nicholas_J]

16. You dont have to cuss about them being poor paying jobs

The people who have had to take jobs that pay as much as 75 percent less than they were earining before know how to answer the question that Bill Clinton posed in 1991. "Are you better off now than you were after 12 years of Republican rule". The answer swept Bill Clinton into the White House. If you think that a person who was earning 100,000 a year and after being unemployed for 2 years and takes a 25,000 dollar a year job will not hold Bush responsible, I dont think you are paying attention to where politics really works. The people who have had to make these downwards adjustments do not base their impressions of the turn around in the economy based on what Bush and is cronies are revealing on the nightly news, but on their own well being.

[AP]

17. Up or Down isn't the key to talking about the economy. For whom the ....

...economy benefits is the key.

Why do you vote Democratic? If you're like me, it's because you think that political, cultural and economic power should flow down to the people.

No matter what Bush does, he can't change the direction he has been flowing power.

If the economy gets better, for whom is it getting better? Not for the people who count.

Even if it gets better for people who work for a living for two months out of 48 months of this hell that is the Bush administration, don't you think that people will still see that Bush is all about taking money from one group of people and giving it to another?

Kerry will ALWAYS be able to make that argument becuase it's the reason he is running, and the reason I vote.

[spooky3]

18. The stock market has been basically flat this year.

That's going to matter, along with many other issues, to anyone who is hoping to retire anytime soon (and relies on their 401ks, savings, or similar plans). While there has been one good year for the stock market during the Bush admin., overall, a lot of people have lost money over 3-4 years, while instead they should have been getting 7-10% (historical stock market increases) given the risks they took on by investing.

Bush can't as yet claim a big improvement in the economy.

However, I basically agree with your main point, which seems to be that Democrats can NOT count on the economy and Iraq's continuing decline, and they need to hammer on ALL the issues AND give specifics on what they would do that would be better.

[graywarrior]

19. Jobs...big deal

What about inflation. Cost of gas. Check your grocery bill lately? Listen, I work for a non-profit which sells donated used cars at $100-$1000 a whack. This is the slow season. And yet, we can't take enough donations and we can't sell enough cars. People are broke. They are buying shitboxes, used clothes, used kitchenwares, used everything. Why pay $29 for jeans when you can pay $4.99?
I see it everyday. My store is mobbed. And it ain't just poor folk.

[Only Me]

21. Usually I am a big worry wart, and ...

I do believe we need to keep on our toes with this campaign. In the eyes of several repugs I know, they're disqusted with the administration. They appear to be using 'common sense' and looking past party lines.
If I were them..I'd get another candidate.
NO, if I were them I'd be a DEMOCRAT :7

****Note on the Job Forecast...

I live in a SMALL area, and if this happens here it will really happen elsewhere, we are already getting large amounts Mexican immigrants in here taking jobs. They are given housing, almost equal wages, well after their lack of paying taxes, equal wages, and free health care, (the Company got kick backs for hiring them) ....They have interpreters helping them get along with bosses in company.
Afew months ago, my relative worked with 11 men in his area, all local and American. Now, he is number 2 American, all have been replaced with non English speaking immigrants. He has no interpreter to speak Spanish. He can not communicate at all.

This kind of thing isn't easily swallowed when it happens to the voting public. IMHO