PENN - QUINNIPIAC: CLINTON 50 OBAMA 44

[monicaaida]

http://thepage.time.com/2008/04/08/new-pennsylvania-numbers-6/

KANSAS YAY OBAMA IS SUPERMAN

http://youtube.com/watch?v=ZjjbYQpAr-E

[Eurobabe]

1. closin the gap, babee!!

GOBAMA!!

[democrattotheend]

2. this is creepy

About an hour ago when I woke up, I predicted that we would get a new PA poll with a 6 point spread. Weird.

[Political Heretic]

3. The sounds more accurate than ARG poll showing a tie. Clinton continues to lose lead

..down from almost twenty points to six.

[struck_dumb]

4. That's still a gap though

I really don't want to see another shocked Barry speech like when Hillary actually won Ohio etc. He looked absolutely shellshocked, robbed, gutted. Stunned. Hate to see a man like that.

[democrattotheend]

6. Losing by 6 is a very respectable margin

Many in the campaign believe a single digit loss is the best they can hope for. Clinton has such a lock on the state machine, with Rendell and both big city mayors in her corner, and the demographics are tough for Obama. If he can get within 6 points that will be a very respectable margin. Plus, last week when the Quinnipiac poll came out showing him down 9 points, I pointed out that if he could cut that by 3 a week he could win. So far he appears to be on track to do just that, though I doubt the trend will continue.

[struck_dumb]

10. 'lock on state machine'

You mean, 'she's got a lot of support from serious Pennsylvania Democrats, don't you?'

[democrattotheend]

12. Meaning she has Rendell and the 2 big city mayors

Which can help drive turnout for her and enable her to tap into their existing ground operation instead of having to build one from scratch the way Obama has had to do. One of Obama's strengths has always been his ground game, which usually is good for a few points. But she might have the superior ground game here because Rendell's people had been organizing for her long before the campaigns came in. Obama had a similar advantage in Wisconsin and I think that's one of the reasons Clinton did not contest it as seriously as most people thought she should.

[BumRushDaShow]

7. Wow. That is alot of B.S.

:eyes:

Why should he be concerned when he's won twice as many states, more delegates, and more popular vote than the dethroned queen? :rofl:

[Name removed]

17. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[rodeodance]

25. "Thanks for sharing, Dummy"--name-calling of anothe DU member --very IMMATURE

[polichick]

5. I was talking to a writer who works with Gallup yesterday...

...and he said these polls don't even factor in the new young voters ~ which makes PA closer yet!

[struck_dumb]

8. neato

the kidz raised on Bob the Builder are now voting him in. The world has come full circle. Why bother with being a world power, let's all have a laugh instead and be really happy and mellow. We'll laugh at anything that we want to, starting with a mean old lady who reminds us of that really strict High School Principal that put us in detention just for smacking someone, smoking in the toilets, or skipping class. Peachy keen, ain't that the saying you world-changing kidz R sayin'??

[PA Democrat]

14. Nice insult to the "kidz" who are going to be stuck paying for the messes of the last 8 years.

I raised one of those "kidz" and he is better informed politically than 99% of the adults I know. And he's voting for Obama.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

18. Yeah, who told those whippersnappers they could vote?!?

And not for Her Majesty Hillary Clinton! The nerve!

Get off my lawn you damn kids!

[WolverineDG]

24. "Damn kids, get off my lawn"

I just love watching Hillary supporters eat the young voters. Way to win 'em over, guys!

dg

[struck_dumb]

9. oops dbl post deleted

[Guava Jelly]

11. Thats OK

Welcome back to DU :D

[PA Democrat]

13. It's like a revolving door, isn't it?

[Boz]

15. I've said seveal times,its the cell phone bubble,you have to adjust Obamas poll numbers by 7 percent

To account for the lack of the ability of polls to get to cell phones.

Thats 3.5 for Obama because his numbers skew lower because more educated, younger people and african americans (his demo) are less likely to have land lines and are more likely to only have a cell.

And 3.5 skews her numbers higher because older and uneducated (her demo) are reachable more easily as they are more land line oriented and less likely to have a cell phone.

If you make that adjustment it explains alot of the outlier numbers and usually brings them within the scale of the margins versus reality measured by the outcomes of the votes

[polichick]

16. It's not only cell phones - polling involves the use of old voter lists...

...that don't include new voters who are engaged now.

[TexasObserver]

21. Yes and Yes!! on both counts

[rodeodance]

26. Do you say that when obama is ahead?

[Boz]

27. It is a statistical handicap, this isnt about whether he is ahead or behind, the numbers that have

confused the pundits and pollsters.

With this adjustment as an average it brings almost every exit poll within the margin of error and even is directly reflected in individual demographic surprises, not just the average aggregate.

Applied as a constant, not a variable of convenience it shows a direct causal relation to why the exit polls have been so confusing.

They haven't been, they have just been statistically anomalous because real world impact wasn't adjusted to todays technological communication situation.

[PBS Poll-435]

19. And his solid support is STILL

36-44%.

[WinkyDink]

20. The abbreviation is PA, THANK YOU. (I'm so tired of seeing "Penn" here.)

[rodeodance]

23. too bad

[rodeodance]

22. SUSA: Exclusive Poll: Obama Loses Popularity With Pa. Men (HRC 18pts over BHO)

Forum Name General Discussion: Primaries
Topic subject SUSA: Exclusive Poll: Obama Loses Popularity With Pa. Men (HRC 18pts over BHO)
Topic URL http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5427120#5427120
5427120, SUSA: Exclusive Poll: Obama Loses Popularity With Pa. Men (HRC 18pts over BHO)
Posted by rodeodance on Tue Apr-08-08 11:54 AM

SUSA: Exclusive Poll: Obama Loses Popularity With Pa. Men (HRC 18pts over BHO)


"Barack Obama lost ground among certain groups of voters in the battleground state of Pennsylvania during the last week, according to a new poll.

If the Democratic Primary were held in Pennsylvania Tuesday, Hillary Clinton would beat Obama by 18 percentage points, according to the results of a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for NBC 10 and three other TV stations across the Keystone State.

The poll concluded that the results were nearly identical to one of its polls released a month ago, stalling the momentum Obama picked up at the end of March.

Women and white voters barely budged and continued to support Clinton at more than 60 percent, as they have in the previous two Survey USA polls.

However, a change in men's support has negatively affected Obama.

Last week, Obama moved within 12 percentage points of Clinton, but men who flirted with the notion of voting for Obama at the end of March appear to be moving their support back to Clinton.

The poll suggests that men make up 42 percent of likely voters."

http://www.nbc10.com/politics