New SUSA Pa poll. Obama down with men. Clinton back to a 18 point lead overall.

[jezebel]

This poll looks like an outlier. It totally goes against the trend of every other recent poll out of Pa.
http://www.nbc10.com/politics/15821754/detail.html

Barack Obama lost ground among certain groups of voters in the battleground state of Pennsylvania during the last week, according to a new poll.

If the Democratic Primary were held in Pennsylvania Tuesday, Hillary Clinton would beat Obama by 18 percentage points, according to the results of a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for NBC 10 and three other TV stations across the Keystone State.

The poll concluded that the results were nearly identical to one of its polls released a month ago, stalling the momentum Obama picked up at the end of March

Women and white voters barely budged and continued to support Clinton at more than 60 percent, as they have in the previous two Survey USA polls.

However, a change in men's support has negatively affected Obama.

Last week, Obama moved within 12 percentage points of Clinton, but men who flirted with the notion of voting for Obama at the end of March appear to be moving their support back to Clinton.
---snip---
Last week's poll, which showed Obama closing the gap, was conducted in the middle of Obama's six-day bus tour through Pennsylvania, which may have helped boost his numbers.

[Bicoastal]

1. Out, lier!

:hi:

[kmsarvis]

53. NEW QIUNNIPIAC POLL...OBAMA CONTINUES TO CLOSE GAP.

Obama has cut Clintons lead to 6 points, 50-44. This poll showed Obama down 9 1 week ago and him trailing by 12 in mid March.

[democrattotheend]

2. Their California poll looked like an outlier too, but it was dead on

That's what worries me about this. And other polls are showing him gaining, which raises the expectations, but the poll that has been the most accurate shows him losing ground. So it's the worst of both worlds...raising expectations without actually gaining.

[GarbagemanLB]

3. Wow, are you telling me he is down in PA? I, for one, am shocked.

:rofl:

[democrattotheend]

6. 18 points down

Worse than last week. This is not good, folks.

[GarbagemanLB]

8. Chicken little? Is that you?

[democrattotheend]

10. huh?

[Teaser]

16. it's not good, it's not bad. it's just numbers

There's lots of numbers floating around. We'll see which ones are right eventually.

[durrrty libby]

35. NO...This is fabulous news. Let's Hope the Kool-Aid has gone rancid...finally

[kwenu]

47. The 18 point story was wrong. They have corrected it.

[durrrty libby]

33. He's the Cardboard Messiah. How can he be down at all

:shrug: Better rev up the jesus juice maker...pronto..refill...refill..refill

[Coexist]

40. I wish people would ignore the other polls and concentrate on this one

he won't win PA, and people are starting to change their expectations on this and they shouldn't.

If he gets within 10 points, its a big win for him.

[BigDDem]

64. So, he's outspending her 4 to 1

and a 10 point loss is a "big win?"
Sounds about right.

[Coexist]

65. yes - from a 30 point deficit to evenly splitting the delegates

the show is over if that happens.

[Teaser]

4. the tied polls were outliers, this is too

The real answer is about a 10 point lead.

And that will likely be the outcome of the primary as well.

[GarbagemanLB]

17. agreed.

[book_worm]

5. Strange. With every other poll showing big gains for Obama they will either be very wrong or the

only one right.

[democrattotheend]

7. In California they were the only one right

That's what scares me about this. California was the worst possible scenario...polls showed him gaining but he wasn't really, or he couldn't win because of early voting. Either way, the polls falsely raised expectations.

[Teaser]

12. early voting is not going to be a big mover in PA

.

[Bicoastal]

9. Clinton's the one with all the most recent drama (Mark Penn)

[Hutzpa]

14. wrong reply - self delete n/t

[Skip Intro]

11. he he he

she's leading in IN and OR too

[GarbagemanLB]

18. Not in OR. Try again.

[Skip Intro]

32. Right you are, my mistake. She leads in IN. And WV. And KY. And PA.

We will see what OR looks like after she routs Obama in PA...

[SoCalDem]

59. Indiana might surprise you

:)

[my3boyz]

68. Keep laughing! We will see who is laughing when Obama becomes the nominee! nt

[PBS Poll-435]

13. Doesn't Count.

They are a wildly innacurate Republican Polling Firm. They only polled people that use pulse dialing. They only polled a retirement home in Erie!

Fingers in ears in 3....2....1....

:-)

[DemGa]

15. Very good n/t

[Hutzpa]

19. 911.... 911.... 911....

call 911 now!

we are in danger, OMG!!!

:yoiks:

[Teaser]

20. Here's the deal folks

1/20 polls are going to have weird numbers. It's just a fact.

now in statistics, there is no such thing as being "due", but given the proportion that SUSA have gotten right and those they've gotten wrong, well this could simply be the random variation you expect in polling.

Really, why people worry about polling to the extent they do is beyond me.

[redqueen]

39. I'm curious as to why they didn't state the sample size or MOE...

:shrug:

But yeah... polls in general are eh... now trends, that's where it's at.

[kwenu]

21. No biggie. Barack Obama isn't the candidate who is one loss away from utter disaster.

Hillary has to win by greater than 20 points to claim she is even still credible.

[Political Heretic]

22. Facinating. Hopefully SurveyUSA polls make into the RCP average - that's what I watch.

[Political Heretic]

23. Additionally - I have a feeling reality is somewhere in the middle

I predict Hillary by 5%, which by any rational standard, ought to be considered a terrible performance and bad news. But it probably won't - it will just precipitate another moving of the goal posts I imagine.

[MadBadger]

24. this poll goes well against every other poll's trend.

[hogwyld]

25. That's just downright depressing

All of that hard work he put into the state, plus the money he's spent, for no gain. I can just hear the commentary now about he can't win the "important" states and such. I guess I'll have to work harder here in Oregon to git 'er done.

[4themind]

26. I know this may be an appeal to tradition but...

I can't stop thinking about how they were called an "outlier" in California. Not sure whether to make heads or tails of this....

[MadBadger]

28. I think this one really is an outlier

In California, they were steady at about a 10 point lead, but their numbers here change too much, and against an obvious trend. Every other polling firm in the nation, including the national polls trend towards Obama, but even more, the news cycles also trend towards Obama. He hasnt had any news worthy events that would cause a that big a shift back, nor has CLinton done anything to cause a shift back to her either. But in CA, they had it at an 11 point lead, and then finally a ten point lead. THey just didnt see that much of a change in the the race there.

[Bullet1987]

31. I think Clintons lead in CA would have been smaller had all the Indie

votes been counted. Truthfully, I only think she beat him by 6-7 points.

[crankychatter]

27. corporate media over-emphasizing racial demographics w/BS Poll

surprise surprise

[Bullet1987]

29. I question the validity if this poll...I mean 18 points?!?!

At least it'll help Obama dampen the expectations for him. But an 18 point deficit makes no sense when there's no reason for Obama to be down by that much. Clinton is the one being attacked right now...not Obama. Almost every other poll shows the race tightening, but SUSA shows Clinton with almost a 20-point lead. You have to call it an outlier considering it goes against the trend.

[MadBadger]

30. I know, he hasnt screwed up, and she is on the defensive

So this poll doesnt seem right.

[Beacool]

34. I don't go by polls.

I can only tell you what I feel from being on the ground canvassing every weekend. My gut feeling is that Hillary will do well in PA.

[Bullet1987]

36. I think she may win too...but 18-points...c'mon

[Beacool]

62. No, I don't think that she'll win by 18 points. n/t

[democrattotheend]

37. Where in PA are you?

I'm compiling on-the-ground stories from both sides to post as a blog post. Where in PA are you, and can you give more details about your canvassing experiences?

[Beacool]

66. I've been canvassing in the Lehigh Valley.

Specifically, out of the Allentown office. I'm there only on weekends because I live in NJ and it's a 2 1/2 hrs. drive from my home. The campaign just opened last week an office in Reading and that's where I'll be the next 2 weekends. I have friends in Reading and the office is only 10 min. from their house.

Saturday, the Allentown office sent people out to canvass in that town and Bethlehem. Around 50 groups in twos were sent out. Each group is given a clipboard with a list of about 100 registered Democrats, instructions, absentee ballot applications, volunteer forms and a map. Also, we take handout materials and stickers. We always pair-up for safety reasons, some of the neighborhoods are not very safe. A few groups had more people because they brought along children or friends.

I went out with a woman who had come all the way from Rochester, NY (that's a 5 hr. drive). We had a blast, it was a nice day and we encountered a lot of people. Most people who we found home were for Hillary, some even had signs in their windows. We had a few Obama voters, a handful of undecideds and one Republican.

We also talked to people who were walking around or in their yards even if they were not on our list. We met a great mailman named John who we kept encountering over and over. His delivery route was our route. We didn't have any bad experiences, even those who were not interested were not rude.

The neighborhood we went to was mainly white and blue collar. There were quite a few people who made it a point to tell us that if Hillary didn't make it, they would vote for McCain.

Sunday, I teamed up with a woman and her 11 year old daughter. The neighborhood we went to was more mixed and pretty run down. There we did encounter more Obama supporters, but it still tilted pro Hillary. We had one interesting meeting with an African American woman who was on her porch watching her children play. She was not on our list and we were not going to approach her, but she made a point of calling out to us and gave us thumbs up when she saw our Hillary T-shirts. The little girl with us asked her if she wanted a window sign (I had brought a few in the car) and she placed it in her window. We talked for a few minutes and went on our way.

Another interesting encounter was the hispanic lady who had frogs all over her porch and window sill and who would not let us leave without showing us her latest purchase: a large ceramic frog to add to her collection. She too wanted a window sign. Maddy would have loved this lady, they could have talked about frogs for hours!!! LOL!!!

All in all, we had a productive weekend, met some nice people and signed up more volunteers.

[AllentownJake]

67. Intersting

The campaigns must be targeting different neighborhoods because I have yet to see or hear of Volunteer saying they ran into a Clinton Canvasing team or anyone tell me that they had someone from the Clinton team knock on their door. The only thing I've seen is a honk if you like Hillary crowd once at an intersection. I'm glad that my home town was nice to you even if you support the other candidate :-)

I've been doing this since the first weekend in March and I haven't run into any neighborhoods that tilt pro-Hillary in the Lehigh Valley.

I don't know I wish they had polling for regions but that would be expensive. I just don't see the Lehigh Valley being Clinton country and I've lived there my entire life.

I'm not accusing you of lying it just seems the campaigns have us going to different neighborhoods.

[democrattotheend]

69. I've been driving up from DC to canvass for Obama

Mostly in the Montgomery County area, right outside Philly. Two weeks ago it was pretty rough...it was in the middle of the controversy over Reverend Wright and I was getting a lot of dirty looks. But last weekend I went to the same area and found a lot more Obama supporters. The most encouraging thing was how many people seemed to be Democrats, period.

Thanks for your story! I'll let you know when I get them all compiled.

[backscatter712]

38. I smell an outlier.

[Melinda]

41. Quinnipac PA 50-44, Clinton; ARG has it 45-45 in PA & PPP has NC 54-33 Obama

So according to national polls, PA is just about a dead heat. NC is a sweep, IN is 53-44 Clinton, and OR is 52-42 Obama.

Looks like a horse race to me. ;)

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/

[kwenu]

42. ATTENTION: THE INITIAL NEWS NBC10 REPORT WAS WRONG!!!!! IT WAS UPDATED:

To report that Clinton has a 12 point lead not an 18 point lead and that Obama continues to close.

http://www.nbc10.com/news/15759420/detail.html

Don't know how they could have made a mistake like that.

[Coexist]

45. that sounds about right. Thank you.

[MadBadger]

46. I dont know how YOU could make THIS mistake...your poll is last week's poll.

Check the date.

[kwenu]

50. Then they haven't released the poll results they're claiming.

Which is odd.

[MadBadger]

58. Obama is down 56-38 in the newest SUSA poll, check RCP.

[democrattotheend]

55. Wrong. The one you linked is from last week

The one today says it's back up to 18 points.

[kwenu]

56. Found the poll, I guess we'll have to compare the trends with the others.

[BeyondGeography]

43. So Obama's either +2 or -18, depending on the poll

To be continued.

[Dawgs]

44. This poll makes ZERO sense.

Every other poll, PA and national, show Obama gaining or leading.

There has been almost zero bad news for Obama, while Hillary has had a few(Penn, Dead mother, etc..) stories that should have NOT given her a bump.

Something doesn't smell right here.

[wowimthere]

48. This post is disingenuous and misleading

[MadBadger]

49. You can judge the poll, but dont judge the poster. The post itself is not disengenious...

or misleading at all.

[dkf]

51. There are no dates on this poll nor details as to how many people were surveyed or margin of error.

I'd like to see more detail before I put any credence in this.

[PBS Poll-435]

54. Here Ya Go!

Crosstabs & all!

Looks pretty reasonable to me...

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c79e5bab-a424-49f6-86d6-50c61cf729b7

[kwenu]

52. NBC10 second story released today cites Rasmussen tie and 12 point poll.

Completely at odds with the "18 point" poll.

http://www.nbc10.com/politics/15823073/detail.html

[easy_b94]

60. I agree

[easy_b94]

61. I agree

[SoCalDem]

57. Whew.. the election is actually two weeks away

:rofl:

[MattNC]

63. it just seems odd

that he'd drop and she'd gain after his nearly week-long visit in the state, heavy advertising, and arguably worse news cycles for Hillary in the last week. But, SUSA is relatively solid this election cycle. Maybe they're right, and the rest of the pollsters will have egg on their faces on April 22.