*********New Polls confirm Obama w/in striking distance in PA, better vs. McCain, & ahead in Orgeon.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

Quinnipac and Rasmussen each have Obama within 5-6 of Clinton in PA. Rasmussen's got him looking better vs. McCain nationally and up 11 vs. Clinton among Dem primary voters nationally. SUSA has him up ten in Oregon.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html#polls


ed for accuracy

[polichick]

1. Even better news - someone who works closely with Gallup told me...

...these polls don't factor in the new voters!

[Zachstar]

15. If that is the case the chances of Obama winning PA grow.

Yet we must not assume they will go to Obama at all! They could go all Clinton so lets work like we are far behind and want to turn it into a win!

[BklynChick]

17. I was wondering about that, because most people under 30 use only cell phones, no landlines.

is that factored into all this polling?

[anigbrowl]

20. I don't believe so. the thing about landlines is they're attached to an address

So you can use the phone #s to ensure your sample is appropriately weighted to reflect the population distribution. With cellphones you don't really have that option. Of course, you could get together a panel of people (eg online) and ask them for their zipcodes etc., but with landlines you already have that data from an objective source. Of course, there are many people like myself who don't have a landline any more because it doesn't save money compared to a cellphone (I pay a flat $50/mo for cellphone service with nationwide calling).

[mythyc]

2. we shouldn't get our hopes too up for PA unfortunately

very disappointingly, that snit Rendell is probably right about their aversion to voting for a black man. this in the land of the quakers and liberty bell. sad... but obama will make his final move to victory, with the supers in tow, with Indiana and NC, hopefully!

[democrattotheend]

3. Yeah, but SUSA has him down 18 in PA

And they have been the most accurate all season. So I don't want to hype these other polls too much.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

4. I saw that, but can't make sense of it in light of the others and national trends. Worth keeping

in mind, though.


ed for typo

[Bullet1987]

5. Actually SUSA's accuracy is somewhat of a myth here on DU

Pre-Feb.5 SUSA was considered garbage. They were damn good ON Super Tuesday and have been since then...but PPP has also been highly accurate. I doubt Obama is really down by almost 20 points...that's kinda unbelievable in my book.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

7. it's possible they're right and everybody else is wrong. but not likely.

[democrattotheend]

27. That was the case in California

Although California did have early voting. But I am still nervous, especially since the media seems to be focusing on the Quinnipiac poll, meaning he would significantly underperforn expectations if the SUSA is right.

[Zachstar]

19. Well even tho it is almost impossible for him to be that low, I think it is a good idea to assume so

We do NOT need to be getting lazy right now! We need to work like Clinton is winning big and we want to turn that into a win.

If you are in PA please show your support! If not, Please phonebank!

[stillcool]

25. I agree with you..

these polls go all over the place, and with Clinton's supposed lock on the state, I keep my expectations in check. The closer the margins narrow, it seems the more erratic these polls get.

[movonne]

6. Are you a hillary supporter in Obama clothing??? this is the second

post from you about the SUSA poll...but I do agree with you we do not want to hype these polls...and just kidding about your clothing...

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

8. good suits=Obama clothing?

[democrattotheend]

11. Of course not

I know I spend a lot of time calling out other Obama supporters, but that's because I think that some of their behavior makes him look bad. I express genuine concern about his prospects when I am worried and I am wary of expectations getting raised.

[nebula]

10. Has SUSA been paid off?

one day they have Obama neck and neck with Clinton in PA, the next day he is down by 18.

that makes no sense whatsoever.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

23. it looks like this one is a botch job

[nebula]

26. Come on

I don't think its an accident. No one is that stupid.

[Zachstar]

16. Polls can go wacky sometimes.

Tho 18 is a good number to assume so that we phonebank and work like we want to get 18 all the way to a win!

[nebula]

9. Her lead shrinking with each passing day

Hillary is toast.

[Zachstar]

18. Don't assume that!

Clinton is not toast yet, Remember Clinton is one of the biggest political machines in politics. She can suddenly gain support and win PA BIG if we get lazy!

[nebula]

28. Agree.

there is much work to be done!

[Kahuna]

12. Oh crap. The tears will start to flow any day now. I hope PA voters

will put hillary out of her misery. I'm so sick of her drama I can't stand it.

[democrattotheend]

13. Can we please lay off the sexism?

It's not doing Obama any favors.

[The Ghost]

21. what did Kahuna say that was sexist?

??

[FrenchieCat]

22. Kahuna is a woman, and can say what she wants about another woman.....

especially one running for President, IMO.

[Zachstar]

14. This is GREAT news.

The polls are getting more and more stable towards a VERY small Clinton win in PA which could mean Obama walks away with a net delegate lead or with Clinton standing with a net gain under 10.

Overall things are looking better for us in PA, However we need to just assume the polls are WRONG and assume Clinton is going to win big and we need to work hard (Phonebanking) like we want to turn it into a win!

Steady is going to win this race everyone! The firewall is breaking!!

[pompano]

24. If we had a noninee.....

and I'm partial to Obama there is no doubt that Lieberman/Lindsey's golden Gram would be even further behind nationally.

[ORDem]

29. K

:kick: