How will Reagan's Death Affect the Polls?

[MessiahRp]

I know a lot of us here at DU were considering this option regardless of personal feelings towards Reagan since we still have the epitome of evil in office and an election to win this November.

The general concensus was that Bush would get a bump from Reagan supporters on the Right or at least the first round of paranoia filled DU posts seemed to rant...

I hope that's not the case although his policies were far closer to Bush than Bush's pops were. The problem I see is a lot of Republicans especially saw Reagan as an actual compassionate conservative because there were times when he did want to work with Democrats to get agenda through. That's in stark contrast to Bush who stonewalls and tries to cheat Dems by pulling eleventh hour backroom deals and twisting arms and threatening careers to get votes.

While Reagan's policies were at least slightly similar to Bush's, they were enacted in different ways and that's why I think that rather than bumping Bush's numbers there will be a lot of nostalgic Reagan Democrats and Reagan Conservatives that will look at Ronnie and look at Bush and be angry about how polarized we have become since he took office and be angry that Bush has taken our country down the wrong path.

That's my take on it.

I'm curious. How do you think the numbers will bounce?

Rp

[benburch]

1. Bush will get maybe a three point bump.

That will fade just as fast as the Saddam bump.

[union_maid]

2. Sounds about right

He might get a small bump that's very temporary. In the long run, as much as it's true that the Reagan administration ushered in the era that led to the Bush administration in the eyes of many conservative Republicans the shrub suffers greatly by any comparison to Reagan. It's something he'd do well NOT to dwell upon.

[LumitraC]

4. eh.. i dont think so

i think remembering reagan only amplifies what bush is not, i dont think there will be any bumps, personally. as much as i disliked reagan, bush is no reagan. and he knows well enough not to try and draw political feed off it.

[newyawker99]

11. Hi LumitraC!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Lefty Pragmatist]

9. Dead on

All the reminiscences of Reagan may make it harder for the GOP to campaign so negatively. OTOH, all the free advertising for the conservatives will give them a little bump, and Rove & Co. will be sure to drape Bushie in the state funeral garb.

But the Chimp is what he is -- there's no silk purse waiting to be made from him.

[Justice]

14. Emphasizes What Bush Is Not

Words about Reagan include - optimistic, ended cold war without bloodshed. Mondale spoke about the campaign with Reagan yesterday and said it was remarkably free of personal attacks, negativity.


All of that contrasts with fear lovin, other people's blood lovin, negativity loving Bush.

[TrueAmerican]

3. He will get an initial bump

But as Americans reflect more on Reagan and contrast that with Bush, Bush poll numbers will go lower.

[keithyboy]

5. The hard core right will be energized until all the ceremonies are over.

After that, they will settle back into their hateful attacks on the rest of us.

One thing that Reagan means to most of them is that he was the President who initiated and "legitimized" the return of America to its old, smug, and racist and intoleratant ways. Rosalyn Carter said it best: "...he made people feel comfortable with their prejudices." This may not have been Reagan's intent and somehow I don't think he fully understood the nature and ignorance of the people who idolized him. For a real, honest picture of the man Reagan, I recommend that you read the books by Carter. I believe that Reagan could easily have worn a white hood and genuinely feel that it was a good thing he was doing.

Listen folks, we will just have to go through the next months as our opponents did after the deaths of JFK, MLK, RFK. Think what they suffer every 11/22.

[Awsi Dooger]

6. Judy Woodruff will let us know

She is my source, weekdays on CNN.

For analysis I use John Fund.

[Hippo_Tron]

10. Please tell me you're joking n/t

[Awsi Dooger]

13. I never joke about John Fund

Especially when I say I'd like to left/right/uppercut his smug face.

I'm still too lazy to look up those smilie things.

[daa]

7. No effect or slightly negative

people will see chimpy as the incoherent, stamering idiot that he is and he will look worse.

[H2O Man]

8. We can use it to our advantage!

The Kerry campaign needs to take the stance that bush's rigid personal beliefs interfere with the scientific research that Nancy Reagan supports. If that is repeated over and over, within three weeks, any "blip" of support bush enjoys will fade, and Kerry will gain.

[juajen]

18. I think the pugs, in honor of Reagan, will reverse their stand

on stem cell research; so, I don't think we will have this small present from Nancy.

[DrFunkenstein]

12. It Will Negate His D-Day Bump And May Actually Draw Contrasts

By pointing out what Bush is not. In the meantime, Kerry gets to look even more bipartisan on the cheap.

[Ganja Ninja]

15. Bush won't get much mileage out of this.

I'm sure they'll pump it for all it's worth. In fact I'm surprised they aren't going to drag his rotting corpse around on the campaign trail. Reagan has been dead in the publics eye for a long time. The current Reagan worship will only last until he's in the ground. Once they throw the last shovel of dirt on him Bush's numbers should resume the downward slide.

[Freddie Stubbs]

16. It will certainly help Bush

For the past several weeks Bush has been battered by bad new, particularly with what was going on in Iraq. Meanwhile, Bush has been dropping in the polls. The Reagan story will take Iraq out of the headlines and Bush will at the very least stop dropping in the polls.

This campaign "time out" may give Bush the chance to take the offensive, as he has been on the defensive for the past few weeks.

[David Dunham]

17. Bush will get a definite bounce up in the polls.