If Hillary blows out Barack in PA

[hogwyld]

by 15 - 20 points, do you think there will be calls for Obama to step aside from the DLC big money people? Will his funding dry up? Do you think this will affect how he does in NC, IN, OR, MT? I'm concerned about the recent SUSA poll that shows Obama behind Clinton by 18% considering the time, money, people, and effort he has poured into the state. I will of course stay with him until the end, but think the Clinton machine is catching its second wind, and gearing up the various party bosses and mobilizing their vast financial connections to influence the primaries.

[nxylas]

1. I think it's expected

Hillary was long expected to win PA by a wide margin. Recent polls showing Obama closing the gap have maybe lulled his supporters into a false sense of security, but if she does win by 18 points, it will just return the projections to where they were a few weeks ago.

[hogwyld]

32. But it appears as though the MSM

has already shifted the expectations so much, that if Obama doesn't win, he's basically toast...

[thevoiceofreason]

46. You are going way way overboard here

[hogwyld]

49. Maybe

But all the news covers is that Obama keeps closing the gap, and that the race is close. Then, SUSA, the most accurate pollster so far this season, shows Hillary with a 18% lead. Now if the MSM keeps talking about the close horserace, and then on election nite, Hillary wins by 18%, the general perception will be Hillary comeback, and blowout of Obama.

[jackson_dem]

157. You're right. That is what happened to Clinton in Wisconsin

Polls had it within 4-5 points but when she lost by 17 Obama was practically coronated--until Texas screwed that up.

[my3boyz]

61. You are obviously not an Obama supporter. I have been

reading the negative crap you have been posting all over the board. One bad poll (in a state he is expected to lose) and you are saying he is toast. Pathetic.

[hogwyld]

64. I never said he is toast

I think that is what the MSM will be playing, along with the Clinton machine should he not be within their artificially low margins. I have donated time and money to him, and like I said, will stay with him to the end. I do think the media, along with the corporations, the lobbyists, as well as the DLC, the MIC are in Hillary's corner.

[my3boyz]

123. Okay. I'm sorry about that. I thought that was your post.

I do agree with you about the media.

[hogwyld]

128. No Problem

The MSM is the true enemy here. :hug:

[PoliticalAmazon]

90. More of the Hillary-Rove dirty tricks. If you say a lie often enough...

...people will believe it.

There are so many negatives now with Hillary Clnton. She torpedos her own campaign nearly every day. She would be a disaster of a GE candidate.

The "big" states Hillary has carried would vote Democrat, whether it was HRC or BO as the candidate. On the other hand, BO has won southern states which the Dems have not been able to win before.

So I see this latest spin as just another Hillary-Rove stunt. Move along. Nothing to see here.

[hogwyld]

94. That's exactly why I fear her "comeback"

As she will be a disaster for our chances in November.

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

167. candidates in NC are falling all over themselves to align with him

one of the gubenatorial candidates has his picture (posing with her) in
her campaign mailers.

Many of our Dems are hoping to catch onto the Obama wave.

[Hugabear]

132. I guess we'll just tell North Carolina to cancel their primary

After all, he's only winning that state by double-digits, and they only have 134 delegates up for grabs.

While we're at it, we'll tell Indiana not to bother with theirs either.

[Apollo11]

2. On what planet is Obama short of money?

Or delegates, for that matter? :eyes:

[hogwyld]

6. Of course he has money now

I'm just saying that IF Hillary does blow him out, will his contributions drop precipitously? What will he do IF his fundraising advantage is gone?

[americanstranger]

14. I doubt it.

In March - at the height of Wrightapalooza - he raised $40 mil.

His fundraising is more consistent than Clinton's by a mile.

Besides - I'm beginning to think that PA isn't going to be the big blowout her supporters are hoping for.

- as

[elizm]

79. Obama is funded by the people who believe in him...

His money will not dry up. In fact, it will only cause me to give more!

[PoliticalAmazon]

91. If we are talking "what ifs"...what if Hillary is proven to be involved in Colombia...

...free-trade lobbying by Penn? That is far more likely than Obama's money drying up.

[hogwyld]

144. Even if she is

The MSM would never report it and damage "their" candidate.

[Lerkfish]

3. and I think I"m a pink centaur!

the easter bunny told me so!

[donheld]

171. I've always suspected this of you, so glad you finally confessed

:D

[Lerkfish]

172. I"m in a support group, step one is acceptance.

[kid a]

4. That is the most probable and expected outcome - still not enough to overcome his lead

He will make up those differences in MT NC OR

[Vinca]

5. No. He's not expected to win PA although it's in the realm of possibility

that he could pull it out. He's also got mountains of money. You need to change your avatar back to Hillary.

[PoliticalAmazon]

92. Actually, as fast as he is gaining on HRC in PA, and with Colombia union...

...scandal, Obama has a pretty good chance of winning PA now, where he didn't before.

Rendell called for HRC to get rid of Penn and she didn't. I doubt he will let her disastrous campaign bring down his political care. At some point he's going to have to bolt.

[hogwyld]

102. But if Rendell owns the PA machinery

will it really matter in the end?

[americanstranger]

7. Their 'vast financial connections' are tapped out, I'm thinking.

The big contributors have probably hit the contribution limit at this point - which would account for the tepid fundraising in March.

- as

[SoCalDem]

13. Someone yesterday said she only really has $7M left for primaries

and she owes at least that much..and owes herself $5M..and she owes Penn too :)

not a pretty picture for someone with so much EXPERIENCE

[hogwyld]

30. Yeah, but hubby

has a lot of money to chip in to snatch this thing. I'm sure that Penn is probably pro bono right now, and she can pay off her bills later.

[Cha]

54. You gotta stop wringin' your hands, hogwyld..

and get with a positive attitude that's gonna close this thing. If you wanna do something..send Obama some money. I am.

Or help Obama in PA by http://my.barackobama.com/page/s/volunteerinpa3 volunteering. Even though it's a long long way from Oregon. :)

[hogwyld]

55. Yeah, I probably spend way too much time here

in GD:P, and am gunshy from some of the more infamous Hillary posters :P That, and I haven't seen the sun in a long time:cry: I guess I've been reading way too many Hillary conspiracy theories on taking the nomination through back room deals. :tinfoilhat: I guess I just need a :grouphug:

[Cha]

60. Cool! 'Cause we'll hug ya..

:grouphug:!!:D Let's get this thing done! And you get to vote May 20th :bounce: :kick: :party:

[PoliticalAmazon]

95. Also, we don't know how much of HRC's funds can only be used in the GE...

...Some contributions have been made with the specification that she can only use them if she is the GE candidate, in the GE.

And we also don't know how much of HRC's campaign funding from March were from her own piggy-bank.

[crankychatter]

8. if they had another rev wright up their sleeve Rendell wouldn't be lowering expectations

yup

he'll nearly tie or win

[hogwyld]

12. If he's trailing Hillary by 18%

I'm not sure an outright win is possible. Maybe if we can change the expectations, we can still come out ahead.

[americanstranger]

17. Anything closer than 10% is a win, IMO.

Clinton is putting so much weight on a big win in PA, if she doesn't blow him away it's a loss for her.

- as

[hogwyld]

23. Well, we've seen her surrogates

mention that anything over 4-8% is a huge blowout win, and know that the MSM will report accordingly, thus shifting the paradigm of the race.

[americanstranger]

42. It still won't be enough.

No one race is going to shift momentum to the point that people will call for Obama to step off.

The Clinton people are hoping for that, but after weeks of asserting that asking Hillary to step down is dumb, they'd look pretty dumb if they turned around and did the same thing.

And they'd have a hell of a time spinning a 4% win as a blowout, IMO.

Having said that, I fully expect the 'Obama should step down for the good of the party' posts to come back after PA, even if Hillary wins by 2%. :D

- as

[jackson_dem]

158. Not when Obama outspends her 3:1/4:1

[crankychatter]

25. um I think that's not accurate

he was nearly tied in the PA polls two days ago

he went down to 18% behind in 48 hours and I haven't seen it?

link pls

:-)

[hogwyld]

28. Here's the link

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=c79e5bab-a424-49f6-86d6-50c61cf729b7&q=45558

[crankychatter]

38. look again, link for YOU

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/

this is a current, scientific poll based upon combined results from nationally prestigious firms.

yours is from several broadcast television stations in PA

please... Obama is behind but this poll is not credible

[crankychatter]

43. Post Script: Penn revelations have not hit yet

yep

there will be no blow out

in fact, quite the opposite is possible, given current trends...

mho

peace

[hogwyld]

82. Sure the political junkies pay attention to that

But I don't thing the blue collar types will make much of Mark "extra bacon 'n mayo" Penn...

[americanstranger]

84. Union members know who he is.

Bet on that.

I think Ed Rendell is starting to see the writing on the wall - and his call for Penn to be fired signals that he wants to get on the right side of the Penn issue before it all goes to hell.

- as

[hogwyld]

104. But will Hillary's base of voters know?

She relys on the older, less educated, whites. They are probably less likely to pay attention to such issues.

[crankychatter]

109. The demographic focussed polls are terribly skewed

an example is the much touted white/black mississippi disparity

it was almost completely accounted for by limbaugh republican crossovers

I guess you didn't look at my link above to more reliable polls?... this discussion is based upon inaccurate data...

the sky is not falling

Regarding Clinton's much touted base of uneducated whites... I have to say this is another MSM canard... Barack does very well with white people, perhaps slightly better among people that appreciate academic achievment... but let's not denigrate the working poor and middle class in this country...

First, only having time in your day to catch ten minutes of network news does not equate to "stupid"

When they're exposed to the campaign, Obama's numbers go UP

In PA, her Ohio-like supposed "demographic" IS THE UNION MEMBERSHIP

they're not slouches either

[crankychatter]

110. PS: the MSM loves those Demo Polls to stir the Race'Gender Pot

pumps up the ratings with a lurid, scandalous undertone

[hogwyld]

111. Thank you for your insight

Yes, I did look at those polls as well. I really didn't mean to denigrate the working class as uneducated, far from it, it's just that when you're working your ass off to make ends meet, take care of the family, the last thing on your list is to check political news.

[ekwhite]

166. Pennsylvania is a heavily Union State

Mark Penn's connections with Colombia will hurt her there. Don't stress over one poll result two weeks out, especially when all of the other polls are telling a different story. I've been around long enough to know to take ALL polls with a grain of salt.

[malik flavors]

9. Man, talk about over reacting. It's one poll, and the only one anywhere near that kind of gap.

He won't win PA, but he won't lose by that much. Calm down.

He's up in N.C. by even more than that, and not just in one poll.

[hogwyld]

18. It's possible I got caught up

by the other polls showing Obama within striking distance, only to be slammed back to earth by the SUSA poll. Maybe I'm just too nervous of what the Clinton camp-pain will do, knowing what they have done in the past...

[truebrit71]

68. You are right on both counts. The Billary campaign has already shown how slimy they can be....

...and yes you are over-reacting to ONE poll...

[SoCalDem]

10. In November '07 she was polling at 48% in PA..Obama at 15%

Who has shown the most "movement" in polls:)

[hogwyld]

36. I do love that pic!

Thanks for giving this paranoid something to laugh at.

[quantass]

11. Recall that PA is an openly Racist state which Rendell and Carville admitted on TV

so i have never expected Obama to win this state and have always stated that Obama will have succeeded if he can lose gracefully by 10-15pts

NC should be easy for him

[PoliticalAmazon]

96. I wonder how PA likes being called a "racist state"? n/t

[Cosmocat]

114. Not one Fin bit ...

nm

[hogwyld]

117. Hopefully, they'll show en mass

That they aren't racist by voting for Obama

[PoliticalAmazon]

97. PA is also a union state, and Hillary is in big trouble with Penn's Colombia lobbying. n/t

[Cosmocat]

112. I gotta tell you, it isn't often I get my dander up ...

online, but what you posted pretty much did it ...

I have lived in Pa, my whole life, near Pittsburgh, near Harrisburg and now in middle central ... And, in NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM, is Pa RACIST, much less "openly" racist ...

Christ, CARVILLE "admitted" ...

Pa is not a lot different than anywhere else ... We have our share of jagoffs, but the overwhelming majority of people are decent and open minded ... OVERWHELMING ... Certainly, whatever "racists" however you might define that, are not great enough in a DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY to throw it all that much one way or another ...

And, make no mistake, I am supporting BO ...

[hogwyld]

118. How is the overall feel of your area?

And thanks from a fellow Obamanaut from Oregon:toast:

[ekwhite]

170. I wouldn't trust Carville if he "admitted" the sky was blue

I lived in Pennsylvania - in the Poconos - for nearly 9 years. There are some racists there, but not nearly as many as there are in North Carolina. I grew up in NC, and still have a lot of relatives there, and it is much more racist than PA.

Being a Pennsylvanian, you understand that Western PA and Eastern PA are like two different states. Some of the rust belt towns like Scranton and Wilkes Barre can be pretty racist, as they have been beaten down since the 1980's at least.

[Cleita]

15. Maybe. Somebody is going to have to step down then.

Of course no one should ever underestimate the Clintons. I remember Bill Clinton saying that if he could have run for a third term he would have won. I thought then, because I was naive about our rigged elections in 2000, that he thought he was popular enough to win. Now I feel there was something more nefarious behind those words.

[paulk]

37. what stupid crap you post

Clinton had a favorably rating over 65% when he left office - most people felt he could have easily won a third term - it doesn't mean anything "nefarious" was behind his words. What the fuck! Are you accusing him of rigging elections? Whose fucking side are you on anyway?

The trashing of Bill Clinton on this site equals any RW site out there...

[Cleita]

75. Thanks for the compliment. If you think it's crap, then it can't be.

Nobody is bashing the Clintons. I believe I was bashing our artificial and easy to cheat on election system. Clinton's 65% approval rating would not have given him a win in a rigged election. It didn't give Al Gore a win even though Al Gore won the popular vote. The rigged system gave Bush the election with a lot of help from Poppy's buddies in the Supreme Court, which I believe was illegal. Yet, no one has investigated the Constitutionality of a body sworn to uphold the Constitution, who didn't. If it had been Clinton, he would have won only by rigging the results in his favor away from Bush.

[paulk]

121. bull. shit.

[Cleita]

145. Makes my flowers grow and bloom. n/t

[garybeck]

16. which polls are you reading?

(CNN) — Barack Obama continues to chip away at Hillary Clinton's lead in the crucial state of Pennsylvania, a new Quinnipiac poll out Tuesday shows.

The New York senator's lead over Obama now stands at 6 points in the new poll, 50-44 percent. That compares to the 9 point lead Clinton held in a similar survey released 5 days ago, and an 11 point lead in a Quinnipiac survey late last month.

Specifically, Clinton has lost ground among white voters and men: She now holds an 18 point lead among whites, down from a 25 point gap in last week’s poll, and trails Obama by 4 points among males. Last week, the two drew equal support from men.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/04/08/obama-chipping-away-at-clintons-pennsylvania-lead/

[hogwyld]

26. The latest SUSA poll

has Hillary leading by 18%, with Obama losing the support of men.

[Beregond2]

19. Um...

she can't win the nomination. Remember? Relax.

[Dawgs]

20. If Hillary wins by 15-20 points she will be farther behind.

She needs to win with 63% of the vote to make any significant gains.

[lefty from jersey]

41. The math

If Hillary wins by 15 to 20% she will get 65% overall. Hold on to your hats, this will be a bumpy ride.

[hogwyld]

44. 20% would be a 60/40 split

But I get your point.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

21. If Obama loses PA by 20 he'll still be way ahead in the delegate count.

If Clinton wins PA by 102%, then maybe she could tie things up.

[lefty from jersey]

58. Hold on

If Obama loses by 20% that is devastating considering the long primary period and the money his campaign has spent. Worse than losing by twenty will be the demographics. Obama must get a high percentage of White votes. If he gets 90+ Black and gets his clock cleaned among White voters, he can not win the GE. The SD will be looking at the demographics, they want to win in November.

[HiFructosePronSyrup]

63. Yeah, right.

Who are you trying to kid?

[stillcool]

150. I'm not understanding...

are you trying to say that only black people vote for Obama...and therefore he is unelectable? That seems to be a really popular idea being pushed by some...but I have to wonder...how did Obama win all those states, and get all those delegates? I've even heard some go so far as to say the United States is 90% racist? What's up with that? Is someone supposed to believe this shit?

[jackson_dem]

160. That is a fact. Obama has lost, nationally, every racial group except his own

Herman tried to explain this to Obamites but they mass alerted him to death. In the Dem primaries blacks are 20% of the vote. Obama wins that group 85-15/90-10. That comes out to 17-3. He doesn't need to win the rest. He only needs to keep Clinton's margins down enough to allow his 14 point cushion from blacks to secure him the win. The problem is in the general election blacks are 10% of the electorate. What will Obama do then? Where does he make up the lost ground? If general election demographics applied to the primaries Obama would be losing because he loses whites, Latinos, Asians, and Native Americans. His narrow popular vote margin comes from 85/90% black support. Superdelegates will be aware of this and the fact the GE's demographics are different. This is why Obama has to do decent with whites in Pennsylvania, and to a lesser extent later in Indiana, North Carolina, Kentucky, and West Virginia. If he does poorly with whites in all these states, along with Ohio a narrative may begin to emerge...

[purji]

177. thats right all the african american votes in Iowa and Wisconsin

pushed him over the top. :eyes:

[juajen]

182. Actually, it was cross over pug votes that pushed him over the

top. That's why he won so many red states. They will not vote for him in the GE.

The manipulation of our primary vote needs to stop, and this can only be done with new rules and regulations agreed to at the convention. Otherwise, who knows who selects our candidates?

[GoesTo11]

22. Assembly plan for victory

Instructions

Start with huge lead in state, large deficit in delegates.
Blow lead in state.
Have outlier polls even show possible defeat.
Hold on for modest victory.
Declare Major Upset and Comeback.
Win small handful of delegates.
Lose next state and fall farther behind in delegates.
Repeat until primaries are complete.

Then declare yourself nominee.

[knixphan]

50. HA! That's perfect.

[hogwyld]

52. The MSM will play up the comeback story

and the sheeple will fall in line.

[easy_b94]

24. right now Pitt and Philly will keep it close for Obama

[lefty from jersey]

33. Chickens coming home

This is the primary that will tell the truth. Given the weight of this primary as opposed to all the previous ones, this will be the one that voters will make a decision and not simply a statement. Hillary has the highest negatives of any politician in history, so I think voters have been blowing steam and venting their dissatisfaction with the Democratic party. Didn't the Democrats make big promises when they camapained in 2006? They got the majority in both houses and did nothing. Bush handed them their petticoats time after time. The Party is angry and frustrated, an Obama vote may be that signal. Huckabee was more of an anti-Republican Party vote than pro-Huckabee. Deep down nobody really thought Huckabee had a chance. Is Obama the voice of a frustrated Party? Is he the real deal? Pennsylvania will tell.

Now an Obama vote is going to mean he will be the nominee, not a anti-Hillary anti-Party vote. Could we really live with Obama will be in peoples mind in this upcoming primary. If Hillary wins big, 15% or more, the die is cast. Obama is toast unless he keeps it REAL tight.

[BeyondGeography]

27. Take a deep breath...good...now take another one

Feel better now?

[hogwyld]

31. I'm hyperventilating...

Gosh, for once, I really wish my vote out here in Oregon didn't count for anything...

[DemocratSinceBirth]

29. Senator Obama Will Be The Nominee

But good showings by Clinton would cause party leaders to push for a unity ticket to avoid a divisive floor fight at the Convention...

[kennetha]

34. If Hillary blows him out

IN Pennsylvania, Kentucky, West Virginia, Indiana, and Puerto RIco, and holds it close in Oregon and especially North Carolina, there is almost NO WAY that Obama will get the nomination. The supers will think that he has cratered with white voters. And there is no way they are going to put Obama up against McCain if they think he can't hold his own among white voters.

They won't ever SAY that. But there are politicians. They are self-interested calculators first and foremost.

[hogwyld]

39. Just out of curiosity

what would you consider "blowout" wins in those states?

[truebrit71]

66. That scenario simply isn't remotely possible.

.

[jackson_dem]

161. It is possible as is Clinton winning every state left except North Carolina

And North Carolina is a state that is almost a lock for Obama due to 90% black support. All he needs is 33% white support to win. Him winning North Carolina with 90% black support and 35% white support won't assuage the concerns of the superdelegates.

[truebrit71]

173. In fantasyland maybe...but there's no way she wins IN, OR and NC...

...she STILL can't catch him...

It's the math...

The only question now is, how and when she gets out of the race...

[PoliticalAmazon]

98. Hoping racism will win the contest for Hillary is heinous. n/t

[DemVet]

125. So white woking class voters not voting for Obama is racist?

What about +90% of black voters voting for him. Is THAT not racist?

[Zhade]

35. Moot question, since it won't happen.

NT!

[JimGinPA]

40. If Hillary Gets 100% Of The Vote...

She'll still be behind in delegates.

[crankychatter]

45. omg, that's a goodun

someone needs to top post with that math clearly stated

thanks... that's funny stuff

[lefty from jersey]

47. Slow down

A huge Hillary win in Pa. is going to be VERY bad for Obama. The inevitable winner story will be severly damaged. He will have outspent Hillary 3 to 1, if Obama can not win the White vote and gets 90+ of the Black vote, it is a very bad trend. He has to do very well among the White voters.

[GoesTo11]

56. Good job setting expectations

We know going HC is heavily favored. On Intrade, she was at like 90% chance of winning PA (now more like 75%), but even factoring that in, Obama is slightly favored to win the nomination. If she wins, it will be like Obama's win in Mississippi. Helps in delegates, but doesn't affect the narrative because it's expected.

[hogwyld]

59. Unless the RW MSM successfully resets the expectations

where Obama should be really close, only to lose.

[hogwyld]

57. But wasn't Hillary the inevitable nominee

since last year?

[truebrit71]

70. Simply not going to happen. Her negatives are simply too high...

Obama keeps it within single digits and Senator 'Clap-clap-Point-point' will be taking her pant-suits and her toothy chipmunk visage back to the state she now carpetbags for...

[hogwyld]

48. Does Ed Rendell have the keys

to the "car"? Is it possible for the establishment to fudge things a bit? Remember, Barack, a black guy, didn't get any votes in Harlem of all places...

[lefty from jersey]

51. Now you are getting it

The Philidelphia vote will be rigged. Rendell is the "old school" where winning is everything. Ed Rendell will have the dead voters back at the polls. When you team up the Clintons and Ed Rendell this will make the Florida 2000 vote look like fun.

Ed is a fixer, you don't ask Ed a lot of questions, he will get it done. When you see Obama lose Philadelphia you can bet Ed did it.

Taking candy from a baby.

[hogwyld]

62. I hope that you are wrong on that

Since it will be against everything that the Democratic party stands for.

[lefty from jersey]

72. Sadly I am not wrong

Ed Rendell is old school. Like when Mayor Daley of Chicago handed the Presidency to JFK in 1960. That vote was fixed the good old Democratic way. (Democrat with a big D)

Rendell will deliver.

[hogwyld]

74. It's really nothing to be proud of

in a democracy to advocate fixing elections. But I guess that's why the establishment fears the Obama movement, as it signals an end to "the old school ways".

[lefty from jersey]

78. Wake up

Obama is not going to end business as usual. How do you think Obama got to the head of the class so quickly. He comes from the most corrupt political system in America, and he is their "boy." Obama will have plenty of favors to pay back, and Cook county bosses always get paid.

Obama got carried to third base by the Cook County mob, and now he thinks he hit a triple.

Nothing is going to change. Power leaves nothing to chance. They have a HUGE investment in Obama.

[stillcool]

152. No one gets to play..

Presidential Politics without some serious backing..of the Corporate kind, and no one gets to change business as usual without some serious backing of the political power kind. It is interesting watching the sides line up in this Primary season. I like the national influence more than the international influence. It will be interesting to see who wins the power struggle.

[jackson_dem]

162. Get real. Why would Rendell risk it all for a primary?

If Obama wins, which is still the most likely outcome, he will want to be on good terms with him just in case Obama actually managed to win the general election. Even if Obama loses the nomination Rendell would lose if it was discovered he rigged PA. His career would be over.

Obamites need to accept responsibility. Notice only Obamites complain about rigging when O loses or is about to lose. Were Wisconsin and Virginia rigged by Obamite governors?

[juajen]

183. You mean, sorta like the "Chicago machine"?

Wow, the dem party is so pure, the Clinton's are the ones playing dirty pool? Ya'll have to be crazy saying stuff like that, when everyone knows the Clinton's are the outsiders. The dem machine is working for Obama, Brazille and all.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

124. Good point!

[knixphan]

53. let's not forget

When Hill wins a primary, Barack's people donate more.

Even when we lose we win.

[truebrit71]

65. 1) Won't happen. 2) You're joking about his funding right? He's kicked her ass every which way but..

...loose in that category for MONTHS and has proven that the DLC and their centrist big-wigs can go pound sand when it comes to raising $$$ 3) She is EXPECTED to win in PA...the only question is by how much or how little...If it is less than double digits then she is toast and will have to withdraw...if it is by the margin shown in that dubious poll you reference then we'll just have to wait 'til she gets pounded in NC to get her to quit...

All of the "reputable" polls have Obama either level or within 6-8 points.

With any luck we'll be done with her candidacy by PA...

[hogwyld]

67. I certainly "HOPE" that you're right

But I'll never underestimate the power of the establishment to "fix" things the way that they want.

[truebrit71]

71. This would be the mother of all fixes...

...and as for the Democratic Party as a whole, if Billary engineer their way into the nomination this party will detonate...

[hogwyld]

73. But I'm really beginning to think

That as long as the Clintons interests are served, the hell with the party.

[lefty from jersey]

76. Fixin' things for years.

Cook County, IL, all of NJ, all of La, and Philadelphia have always come through for the Democrat that needs a fix and is willing to horse trade. Look for Ed Rendell to have a top cabinet post in the Hillary administration. This is nothing new.

Ed Rendell is the "firewall", because he can fix the outcome.

[truebrit71]

77. i hope you are dead wrong...although KO voiced something about Rendell last night...

...said he would have a hard time getting a position as dog-catcher in an Obama administration....

I STILL think that hope beats fear and inspiration beats a pant-suited, sniper-dodging, DLC, centrist, mis-speaking chipmunk...

[hogwyld]

81. So after PA

Rendell will have lost his usefullness. I don't think he's a big player in NC, MT, IN, KY, WV, OR. He might have some influence in PR though.

[lefty from jersey]

87. PA is the game

If Rendell does his magic and Obama has a low percentage of White voters like he did in Miss. he is in trouble.

Obama people had better have plenty of poll watchers in Penn. I predict 105% of registered Democrats will vote in Philadelphia.

[BuyingThyme]

69. Yes, no, no.

[goletian]

80. OBAMA CANNOT LOSE

hillary has already lost the nomination.

[lefty from jersey]

83. Yes he can

I have lived through many presidential primaries and GE's. He can lose. He has to remember he can lose. This is an ugly game. Gary Hart, Mike Dukakis (up by 30 points), JFK had no chance in '60 and on and on. He can lose. All it takes is one major gaff and he goes from front runner to run out of town.

He had better not let up on the gas pedal, he has someone following him that is not conflicted by treachery.

[goletian]

86. obviously, hes not sitting on his ass expecting the nomination to land in his lap

given the trend and his dedication to success, its just not possible for him to lose at this point.

[lefty from jersey]

89. It is possible

The Clintons do not play by the rules. He CAN lose, probably he can't lose fairly, but that has never stopped the Clintons before.

[stillcool]

156. anything is possible..

To suggest that the expected loss in Pennsylvania will turn the tide against Obama is reaching a bit. To suggest that the Clinton Campaign will cook something up to try and stop the Obama express is a given. I really don't see how anyone who has watched this Primary season unfold could think any differently. And I don't know anyone who has been paying attention that is unaware of the potential risk inherent in our voting systems.

[Dawgs]

85. One fucking outlier poll and now some are predicting it's over for Obama.

This is beyond pathetic.

[PoliticalAmazon]

99. It's Hillary spin, using Hitler's Big Lie tactic. n/t

[hogwyld]

106. But the MSM is lapping it up

and the sheeple are feeding at the trough.

[Kittycat]

88. OH brother.

Please, get a grip - and step away from the polls. Obama is expected to lose PA.

[Zachstar]

93. I think you are getting too worried.

#1 Most polls show Obama within 10 percent of Clinton. If he keeps her within 10 percent she will virtually lose because the blowouts needed in next states will need to be even bigger.

#2 Obmama has a small chance to actually win PA.

[hogwyld]

120. Maybe the campaign for Obama

Needs to concentrate on setting the expectations game closer to 15-20%

[intaglio]

100. Answering your title first

If Hillary blows out Barack by 15 - 20 pts the age of miracles will not be past

Secondly, given how the Clintons have been treating the supers and the DNC there will be immediate questions about the authenticity of the poll

Thirdly, Obama will STILL be leading in states, votes and delegates

Conclussion, no they will not pressure him to withdraw.

[2rth2pwr]

101. PA is where the whole dynamic changes. It's true that most pundits

have been predicting a Clinton win so it won't come as a surprise, but the reality of her win along with the big spread

will still mark a turning point. Hillary will have won another big, critical state and by a large margin.

The celebrations, the balloons, the smiles, the cheering and the dropping of new damaging revelations about Obama

will strike fear into some of the weaker Obama supporters and human nature being what it is, the comeback story will be hard to resist.

McCain was written off as dead too, the media love to bring the underdog back up, and the American people love to see it too.

Don't forget, if Obama and his team are so sure that the nomination is his, why even worry about her? Why would his supporters continue to attack her? Easy, they know,

even if they don't want to openly admit it, they know in the back of their minds that Hillary will not quit and she will find a way to win.


Lots of sleepless nights ahead for die hard Obama supporters.

[4_Legs_Good]

103. OUCH! That's a painful poll, but I'm not expecting anything other than a blow out

I'd like a <10 point loss, but 15-20 is certainly not out of the question. It's likely to be a very, very big night for Clinton, and she'll net 20-30 delegates, but that still puts her down over 100 and over 130 pledged.

I don't think this is going to be a big deal, and I never really expected anything besides...

Though I hoped!

David

[DrFunkenstein]

105. Clinton Must Clear 60% to Even Consider It a Victory...And It Still Won't Be Enough

As for fundraising, Clinton has going broke and her backers are tapped out. Meanwhile, she still won't come even close in the delegate race or popular vote or states.

[hogwyld]

116. You know that, I know that, but what worries me

Is the MSM and their repetition of the same 'ol lies that this is still a horserace, and that the media spun perception, repeated often enough, becomes a reality.

[stillcool]

159. Not this time..

the media are not orchestrating stuff like this...

[Major Hogwash]

107. If that happens, I'll be out hunting flying pigs.

I don't know what the limit is on flying pigs just yet, but I'll be sure to be out there trying to get my bag limit.

[2rth2pwr]

108. Obama peaked way too early for the PA race, you're right about Hillary catching her

second wind. I sense real fear from the Obama camp as they face the inevitable defeat for the nomination..

[hogwyld]

143. I don't know if he's peaked or not

But if it was, it was very helpful in him sweeping up the February contest, and building up his pledged delegate lead.

[Cha]

113. Here ya go hogwyld..

Melinda (1000+ posts) Tue Apr-08-08 04:04 PM
Original message
Brand New PA Polls: ARG: Obama 45% - HRC 45%; Quinnipiac: HRC 50% - Obama 44%
American Research Group
Date: 4/5-6
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/8/08
Est. MoE = 4.0%

Hillary Clinton 45%
Barack Obama 45%
Unsure 6%
Other 4%

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 53% to 36% among men (46% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 52% to 39%.

Clinton leads 52% to 36% among white voters (80% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 89% to 9% among African American voters (16% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Obama leads 52% to 38% among voters age 18 to 49 (52% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 52% to 38% among voters age 50 and older.

27% of all likely Democratic primary voters and 41% of likely Democratic primary voters age 18 to 49 say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 25% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

Full American Research PDF here


Quinnipiac University Poll
Date: 4/3-6
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/8/08
Est. MoE = 2.7%

Hillary Clinton 50%
Barack Obama 44%
Unsure 6%
Other 1%


"With two weeks to go, Sen. Barack Obama is knocking on the door of a major political upset in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Obama is not only building on his own constituencies, but is taking away voters in Sen. Hillary Clinton's strongest areas - whites including white women, voters in the key swing Philadelphia suburbs and those who say the economy is the most important issue in the campaign," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The Pennsylvania primary is like a game of horseshoes: Sen. Obama needs only to come close to be considered the winner - taking away, perhaps fatally, Sen. Clinton's argument she is the candidate best able to defeat Sen. John McCain in critical swing states like Pennsylvania."

Full Quinnipiac PDF here

More Pennsylvania Polls showing what a true horse race this is:here

The first 2 polls I posted were released today. All in all, and despite what some here may choose to belive (or post), the race in Pennsylvania is extremely close, and far closer at this point in time than many Obama supporters expected it to be.

Additionally, Obama leads in both NC and Oregon; Clinton leads in Indiana and, at last look, KY.

Obama continues to lead Nationally.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5428999

[hogwyld]

115. Thank you for your rays of sunshine!

I guess I'm always waiting for that other shoe to fall, and knowing the depths that the Clintons will go to achieve their "destiny", I just know that the MSM is pulling for her.

[GoesTo11]

119. Looks like it will be fairly close

We can all start saying we know HC will win by 20% or Obama will win by 10% or whatever. But the polls are showing somewhere between HC +8 and -2 or so. On average +3. What can happen from there? Could be that the outlier polls are more right than the others. Could be that something changes between now and 4/22 - especially with last minute dirt dumps on 4/21. Could be that turnout is higher or lower in some areas or demographics than expected. Could be that there will be some irregularities. Most often, these things tend to average out. Looks like a slight edge right now for HC. Both will have good GOTV - Obama always does, and party leaders in PA will ensure it for HC. Anywhere between HC + 9 and +1 basically gives very few delegates and only very weak bragging rights (even if she calls it a major victory). HC +10%-18% or more is reasonably impressive, but still about as expected and won't change thinking much as she'll still have a huge delegate deficit (although she'll have a good day or two in the press which will dissipate by North Carolina's primary). HC +20% or more would be her biggest yet outside of Arkansas and a pretty big surprise - people would really have to think about whether this signifies new developments in the race. Obama + anything would be lights out.

Place your bets, folks.

[InAbLuEsTaTe]

122. Pigs will fly before that happens.

[bhikkhu]

126. One poll is not a trend, any more than the Obama +2 earlier

If three days ago or so a poll said Obama was up by 2pts in PA, and today another poll says he is down by 18 pts, it doesn't mean 20% of the voters in PA just changed their minds. "Outliers" are statistical anamolies, a regular result of small number sampling and method bias. Other polls today and in the past few days put Obama steady at -5 to -10, which is much more likely than massive voter shifts without any significant events.

[kwenu]

127. Why are Hillary fans still throwing up these "I'm an Obama supporter but I'm worried" threads.

Obama's supporters aren't worried at all.

[hogwyld]

129. I am a realist

Because I know perfectly what the Clintons, in conjunction with the MSM are truly capable of. They will not give up power easily.

[kwenu]

135. The reality is that Obama leads in the delegate counts. If Hillary overtakes him, I will be the firs

to say he needs to go. I'm not just making this up because I know the math, I've always felt that way. We now know that it is all but impossible for that to happen at this point. No, Hillary will not give up under any circumstances, reasonable or not. She is the dysfunctional family member that will gladly make your life hell until you give her what she wants or you put her out on her ass. Come June 3, the Democratic party will know what it has to do if we are not going to anoint her the nominee.

[wowimthere]

130. No because she is just politics of old. she is capped at likability and funding

[hogwyld]

134. I don't think she really cares if she's liked or not

And as for funding, well, they've got a lot of dough over the last 7 years...

[wowimthere]

131. Like in Ohio and New Hampshire, I smell vote rigging in PA. No doubt about it.

[hogwyld]

133. I surely wouldn't put it past Rendell

to rig the vote in favor of Hillary. Well see if certain precincts in Philly register no votes for Obama like there was in Harlem.

[lefty from jersey]

137. Count on it

Rendell, need we say more? The fix is in. They will be waking up the dead in time for the primary.

[hogwyld]

141. I'm so happy that you take pleasure

in the circumvention of the democratic process.:eyes:

[GoldieAZ49]

136. blow out or not it is going to the convention

There is no rule saying anyone has to step aside, and the SD are as divided as the party voters

[democrattotheend]

138. Do you honestly believe she can stay in if she loses PA?

I don't think that will happen, but I think if she does it's over. Even some Clinton supporters have concurred with me on that.

[GoldieAZ49]

139. It doesn't matter if we all concur on it

She is not going to step aside. She will take it to the convention with a smile.

Hillary has never quit in her life, she isn't going to start now. I don't think anyone, including Bill could change her mind.

[Hieronymus]

140. I don't think she leads by that margin in PA, unless something happened

today.

[hogwyld]

142. Do you know how often they poll?

It would be interesting to see if they shift on the next one.

[Hieronymus]

146. Tonight, MSNBC said her lead was down to 9% in PA ... cool. Or was is 6%?

[quakerboy]

147. I think that

If Obama blows Hillary out in PA by 15-20 points, there will be calls for Obama to step aside from the DLC big money people.

What would that have to do with anything?

[chill factor]

148. and the beat goes on...for Obama

Pennsylvania
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey shows Clinton leading Barack Obama by five percentage points in the Keystone State, 48% to 43%. That’s little changed from a week ago, but down from a ten-point lead two weeks ago, a thirteen-point lead in mid-March and a fifteen-point advantage in early March. And there is still time for him to close the gap even more!
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/pennsylvania/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary

North Carolina
In North Carolina, Barack Obama has opened up a twenty-three percentage point lead over Hillary Clinton. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds that Obama attracts 56% of the vote while Clinton earns 33%. A month ago, Obama’s lead was just seven percentage points.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/north_carolina_democratic_primary

Hillary's Honesty Rating versus Senators Obama and McCain
http://www.gallup.com/poll/105097/Perceived-Honesty-Gap-Clinton-Versus-Obama-McCain.aspx

There is no way that Hillary can win the nomination.
Obama won North Dakota 61% to Hillary's 37 %.
Over the weekend, Senator Obama picked up 17 pledged delegates to Hillary's 1. Eight of those pledged delegates had been pledged to Edwards.
Senator Obama picked up 2 more super delegates, Hillary lost one.
Senator Obama has won more states, more votes, more popular votes. Hillary has to win 65% of the votes in PA and pull a 64% vote total from the other nine states. That is not going to happen.

[stillcool]

149. Who will have the most delegates?

and who will still have the popular vote? And, who knows what's going to happen on the 22nd?

[mkultra]

151. good lord , i missed the word "out" when i read your subject.

[Gore1FL]

153. Shed'd have to bow him out with a 75-25 for that to happen.

realistically 85% is her magic number.

[RBInMaine]

154. If she wins it's by 10 or less. What is this worry wort post for??

[hogwyld]

181. Because everyone knows

A cornered animal is a dangerous one...

[MarjorieG]

155. Figure the machines, Ed's political, as well as electronic, to tilt results.

Just like the funny, flipped results in Nashua and Manchester, NH, which we couldn't confirm because of poor chain of custody. We will not be able to confirm PA, either.

When do we get support for massive election protection activism in this country? Our majority leader, Steny Hoyer, is more on the side of the vendors, rather than transparency and citizen participation.

[jackson_dem]

163. Notice how O doesn't whine about rigged voting machines?

Neither do Clinton supporters or Hillary herself for that matter. Only Obamites have wild conspiracy theories each time the messiah loses or is about to lose...

[Honeycombe8]

164. Why would the winner drop out if he loses one state by 20 pts? Hillary has lost several states by .

that percentage or more.

Obama has the popular vote, the pledged delegates, the money. He is winning. He will lose PA. Hillary has been running ahead of him in PA by 20 or more percentage points until recently. If she goes ahead and wins by that percentage...that gives her momentum, but does not kill Obama's campaign (or his winning status).

Obama basically has won. Even if Hillary won every state from here on out, she could not win (or even get ahead of Obama).

[ekwhite]

165. This poll looks like an outlier to me

Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, and ARG, taken at the same time, have Clinton's lead anywhere from 0% to 6%. Quinnipiac, which has Clinton up by 6%, has a huge sample size - 1340 likely voters. I'm going with a Clinton lead of 6% myself.

[Swamp Rat]

168. I'm going to build a space ship and fly to the Andromeda Galaxy.

:D

[JVS]

169. No. That is when she just begins to be competitive again

[kennetha]

174. Obama has peaked. Won't win many from here on out.

Clinton is about to reel off a series of impressive wins - her most impressive since Super Tuesday and Ohio and Texas. Obama is toast.

She will win by 16 or more points in Pennsylvania. Even in the just released strategic vision poll which has Hillary by only 5, there remain 11% undecided. I'm predicting that the undecideds break massively for Hillary and htat Obama's support is exaggerated by a few points.

I doubt he scores over 40% in any of Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, or Kentucky after spending big bucks in all these states.

He will make a very credible showings in North Carolina, on the strength of overwhelming AA support, but Hillary will either squeak out a win here or will fight him to a near draw. That will stun the supers, since it will mean that his support among whites will have cratered.

THe first sign will be that she pulls a major upset in Oregon -- a natural Obama state. That will be the start of the death knell ringing for Obama's vaporous campaign.

[Fluffdaddy]

175. From your post to God ears

[Orsino]

176. That would be...amazing.

Kick.

But it's what she should have done months ago, and couldn't. I don't see it happening now, nor do I see any signs of an Obama "peak"--quite the reverse, actually.

[hogwyld]

178. I live in Oregon

And there ain't no way he loses here.

[SoonerPride]

179. Delusional

You are cracking up.

[lefty from jersey]

180. Hillary blows...

Any sentence with "Hillary" and "blows" in it is probably a bad choice.