Brand New PA Polls: ARG: Obama 45% - HRC 45%; Quinnipiac: HRC 50% - Obama 44%

[Melinda]

American Research Group
Date: 4/5-6
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/8/08
Est. MoE = 4.0%

Hillary Clinton 45%
Barack Obama 45%
Unsure 6%
Other 4%

Barack Obama leads Hillary Clinton 53% to 36% among men (46% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 52% to 39%.

Clinton leads 52% to 36% among white voters (80% of likely Democratic primary voters). Obama leads 89% to 9% among African American voters (16% of likely Democratic primary voters).

Obama leads 52% to 38% among voters age 18 to 49 (52% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 52% to 38% among voters age 50 and older.

27% of all likely Democratic primary voters and 41% of likely Democratic primary voters age 18 to 49 say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 25% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.

Full American Research PDF here

Quinnipiac University Poll
Date: 4/3-6
Pennsylvania
Added: 4/8/08
Est. MoE = 2.7%

Hillary Clinton 50%
Barack Obama 44%
Unsure 6%
Other 1%

"With two weeks to go, Sen. Barack Obama is knocking on the door of a major political upset in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary. Obama is not only building on his own constituencies, but is taking away voters in Sen. Hillary Clinton's strongest areas - whites including white women, voters in the key swing Philadelphia suburbs and those who say the economy is the most important issue in the campaign," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The Pennsylvania primary is like a game of horseshoes: Sen. Obama needs only to come close to be considered the winner - taking away, perhaps fatally, Sen. Clinton's argument she is the candidate best able to defeat Sen. John McCain in critical swing states like Pennsylvania."

Full Quinnipiac PDF here

More Pennsylvania Polls showing what a true horse race this is:here

The first 2 polls I posted were released today. All in all, and despite what some here may choose to belive (or post), the race in Pennsylvania is extremely close, and far closer at this point in time than many Obama supporters expected it to be.

Additionally, Obama leads in both NC and Oregon; Clinton leads in Indiana and, at last look, KY.

Obama continues to lead Nationally.



;) :popcorn:

[Zachstar]

1. The polls are quite unstable but the longer they remain like this the greater Obama's chances

This is obviously not some fluke. Obama has cut it down to within 5-10 percent and he still has time to do more campaigning.

[Melinda]

4. Polls vary, and one can cherry-pick, but they's always have their covers jerked on DU.

Plenty of time yet, but the overall indicators in all states strongly favor an Obama victory. Just look at the national chart.

Clinton can't possibly win the remaining states by the 2/3 margins she needs in each one. :hi:

[Zachstar]

7. That last part is extremely important.

After losses in more states her needed blowouts in ALL states from this point forward are already astronomical.

Her last superfirewall looks already like it will not give Clinton the first blowout needed.

[goclark]

2. This is looking much better

But we want to do even better for Obama :bounce:

[Zachstar]

5. That is a good point.

A good rule of thumb is to assume Obama is WAYYYYYYYYY down and work like you want to turn that into a WIN!!

[goclark]

20. good point~

[Melinda]

8. All the way to November!

Just watch! :hi:

PS: think we'll see any HRC supporters on this thread? I've noticed that when they find a poll remorely favoring Clinton, they are all over it.. but when Obama supporters post one... well, not so much. ;)

[Zachstar]

12. They seem to be favoring a topic sink approach.

I notice few of them go to poll topics that favor Obama and the handy guide posts seem to have little activity from them lately despite big political exposures of Clinton.

[Cha]

3. Thanks Melinda!

I just posted this on another thread for someone who's worried about hilary "blowing Obama out in PA". :)

[Melinda]

6. Glad I could help!

Thanks right backatcha!! :hi:

[Zachstar]

9. Good, People do not need to worry themselves to tears because Obama is doing what he does best.

He keeps a steady approach and meets the people. When they see him they consider voting for him.

[jackson_dem]

10. Just like the Obama campaign: recycle things and present them as "new"

The ARG poll was released a couple days ago. ;)

[HockeyMom]

11. Looks close

no matter how you slice it. Certainly, not a blow out for Hillary, as she wanted.

[Zachstar]

14. Wanted? You mean more like NEEDED!

[PresidentObama]

13. ARG isn't reliable, but yes...he's closing the gap

[Zachstar]

15. If he keeps it within 10 percent at the primary he will have broken the firewall.

Clinton needs giant blowouts just to tie Obama and if this state does not give her the blowout needed, she will be in a bigger mess.

[Cha]

17. April 22nd is going to be a heckuva

day..DU will be Ballistic!

[Melinda]

18. USAElection Polls grades each of the pollsters; look at what they say about ARG:

American Research Group is, on average, 11.5 points off the actual results with their polls. A lot of that has to do with the fact that they have continuously under-represented the support that Barack Obama draws. In South Carolina, they predicted that Obama was up by 3 when he won by 28%. In Delaware they predicted a race that was within the margin of error when Obama won by 10 points.

At this point, you should be skeptical of any poll by ARG that shows a close election because Obama most likely is performing a bit better in the polls.

http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/articles/american-research-group-2008-primary-grade-022308001.html

If you go to the link, you'll see a compilation of the results compared with actual results, and according grade. :)

[thevoiceofreason]

16. Actually, ARG added their MOE today.

The most interesting thing to me is the sample size. Quinnipiac samples 1340 - a huge sample. That's probably why their MOE is so low (2.7%). That's why I place less weight on Survey USA (600-660) and ARG (same). Net net, it is likely a single digit difference.

[Melinda]

19. I should have looked at the sample size, but I'm on information overload today!

Thanks for the info (even if it makes my head hurt). ;)

[ORDem]

21. K

:kick: