Obama takes aim at knockout blow in Pennsylvania

[catgirl]

Source: REUTERS

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Barack Obama is gaining ground on Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, moving within range of an April 22 upset that could end the hard-fought Democratic presidential race months earlier than expected.

Less than two weeks before their next showdown, opinion polls show Obama cutting Clinton's once big lead in Pennsylvania to single digits and making gains among some voting blocs that have been her most reliable backers.

An Obama win would be a shocking twist in a Democratic race filled with them, effectively scuttling Clinton's hopes of overtaking him in the fight for the right to face Republican John McCain in November's presidential election.

"If Obama wins Pennsylvania, the race is over," said Cal Jillson, a political analyst at Southern Methodist University in Texas.

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN0948200620080409?feedType=RSS&feedName=politicsNews

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It looks like it could happen.

[Laura PourMeADrink]

1. K&R - Well if she doesn't drop out if he wins PA - we'll really know she's insanely Machiavellian !

[mikelgb]

2. These stories came out before NH, NV etc

then when she wins on election night they call it "come back" or they act surprised... it is stupid

right on schedule

[Pawel K]

4. But in this case he came from a 20 point defecit to single digits. And there is still almost 2 weeks

left. Plenty of time.

[PBS Poll-435]

19. Single digits?

Nah...18 points.

His support number is unchanged in almost a month of campaigning.

38-44%


http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportPopup.aspx?g=c79e5bab-a424-49f6-86d6-50c61cf729b7&q=45558

[damonm]

20. Yup. Single digits.

Unchanged in a month? Facts disagree with you.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html

[PBS Poll-435]

21. That would be the problem....

Either you don't know what day it is, or you can't read the chart.

In 1 month, Obama's support is unchanged. Only two polls out of 21 in the last month have his support about 44% (And those two have it at 45%)

And I am gonna go with SUSA after their track record this season...
The RCP Average? Not so much...

[Pawel K]

3. I hope PA will put an end to all this bullshit and we can finally move on

[sasquatch]

5. Yes, on to Grandpa McCain

:kick:

[truebrit71]

14. Amen to that.

I sick of her shit already...

[WTyler]

6. Again with this

I get why the media runs these types of stories. Obama can close a 20 point gap faster than anyone's ever seen. He's went from being down 20 points to single digit losses or even wins in so many contests this election it's almost expected. The only exceptions so far have been a few Super Tuesday contests (too many states for him to close them all at the same time) and Ohio (Clinton tricked voters into thinking Obama was pro-NAFTA). Still though it just feeds in to Clinton's spin. She's able to play the expectations game with the media claiming a win when she massively underperformed. Obama is not going to win PA. Hillary Clinton grew up there for Pete's sake. Candidates typically don't loose those types of elections regardless of other factors.

[rmgarrette64]

7. Uh, he is pro-NAFTA

So is Clinton, and so is McCain. Sure, both Clinton and Obama lie about it during the primaries, but they are both in favor of it. That's why Obama gave the Canadian government reassurances (and then lied about that too.)

If you're anti-NAFTA, you don't have a candidate in this race.

R. Garrett

[WTyler]

8. debunked

The CBC debunked that entire story. The only American media that gave it serious attention was Countdown, but it got a couple of blurbs in other places and was discussed at length on the web. Obama's surrogate basically parroted the campaign's stump speech after being contacted to discuss the matter. Of all things it was the Clinton campaign that contacted Canada with reassurances. The whole thing was a fabrication by the Harper government. The Canadian Labor party has been hitting him pretty hard for the whole thing.

I know that Obama isn't exactly what you would call anti-NAFTA. However, he has stated that he wants to renegotiate to account for worker and environmental standards which have always been the core problem with NAFTA. Hillary on the other hand actively helped get the thing passed. I'd say Obama has more credibility when he says he wants to renegotiate than Clinton does.

[crankychatter]

10. You need to research your story line there BUT

I love good criticism...

and Clinton surely is not only SOFT on NAFTA, as Obama is, but simply incredible in her criticisms of it...

but the Canadian story didn't go down as you describe

you should read more.

[WTyler]

12. I followed it pretty closely

and even watched the actual CBC story. That's how it went down.

[2rth2pwr]

9. Obama is going to look pretty impotent if he puts all this effort and money

in PA and still gets beat handily.

[quantass]

11. It's the Bigger Picture...it's all for the GE -- He's very Smart

It would be nice to have a win or keep it close but because Obama has pretyt much locked up the nomination his only real reasons for the heavy focus is for the sake of GE....and i think it is a good investment.

And besides, Obama has money to burn and has shown time and again that he is very clever at using it.
Noone gives him a shot at winning PA, not even me, but when you think about his plan from a bigger canvas then things start to make more sense. And the added bonus is that Hillary is forced to use mroe of her money to combat him...so for him its a win-win

[WTyler]

13. It's never been about states

Obama gets this, and that's why he's winning. It's about delegates and win or lose the contest Obama will fight to get as many as he can out of each contest. If Hillary had fought for more delegates in the states Obama was going to win instead of sticking her head in the sand she might not be in the situation she's in now.

[AllentownJake]

16. Funny thing is

He sends out a couple emails and has 40 million more dollars...Can Hillary do that?

[myrna minx]

17. He has now established himself in PA. Even if he does lose PA to Senator Clinton,

the good people of PA have had a chance to get to know him and know his platform. He has closed the gap in the polls, so much so, that it demonstrates that his message and policies are resonating with the people there, that he has a good chance to carry the state in the GE. Has McCain spent much time in this state? I think it's smart strategy and shows long term thinking.

[scheming daemons]

15. Don't get hopes up.... SUSA says he'll lose by 18....

..I'm personally going with that one.


And I want *ALL* Hillary supporters to admit she should drop out of the race when she wins by less than 10.


According to the SUSA poll, a win by less than 10 points for Hillary should be the death knell for her campaign.


Supremely disappointing.


;-)

[Zachstar]

18. Now the media is talking about a possible win!

This is interesting. Because it is putting the pressure on Clinton to spend more and spend more energy on what was supposed to be a huge win.

[IsItJustMe]

22. Let's do this thing. That's what I am saying. Get it over with.

[samsingh]

23. that would put this primary to rest and let us all come together again

and fight the true evil that is the repugs