Kerry Leads in11 Battleground States WSJ:

[Nicholas_J]

Kerry is now leading in Florida, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania,West Virginia,Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, Oregon and Washington.

Bush Leads in Ohio, Tennessee,Missouri, Arkansas and New Mexico.


http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/info-battleground04-frameset.html

[NMDemDist2]

1. no mention of Arizona huh? eom

[DaveSZ]

4. Hmm

It's only a snapshot.

Is there any indication that * can turn it around by Nov?

[molly]

2. Great news!

:kick: :kick: :kick:

[WI_DEM]

3. New Mexico?

why is Bush ahead there?

[lancdem]

7. It's practically a tie (0.4 percent)

That state was very close in 2000, BTW.

[NMDemDist2]

10. there have been massive lay-offs in Alberquerque in the last

30 days, we'll see if that makes a difference in the next polls

[Beetwasher]

5. I Thought Kerry Was Ahead In Ohio Too?

Some polls have him ahead there...

[Nicholas_J]

16. He has been ahead in Ohio

Except for on recent poll, which had results directly in opposition to those of all of the other pollsters, but whenever that happens, most of the sites then give the state to Bush. I have been following certain pollsters adn ave found that several of them seem to hired by conservative organizations to do polls in order to influence public opinion, particularly among the undecided, who are going to make this election in a big way.

[lancdem]

6. A little disappointed in Ohio

but glad to see Kerry ahead in four Bush states, and Bush ahead in just one Gore state.

[jay-3d]

8. MISSOURI

Missouri has always voted for the candidate that has won. Missouri is very important. Come on Missouri, vote Kerry

[Padraig18]

13. Illinois is also a bellweather state.

It's only been wrong once, IIRC correctly from my Presidential Politics copurse. It and MO are very reliable indicators.

[flpoljunkie]

9. Zogby's analysis here presumes Kerry will win with 296 electoral votes...

to Bush's 242 votes, assuming the 34 states plus DC that went Democratic in 2000, again go Democratic in 2004.

[Nicholas_J]

17. A number of sites are predicting a Kerry win

Election Projection, a web site done by a conservative mathematician gives Kerry the win in November by:

Current Tally - 05/26/04

2000 Adjustment: Bush -2.57%

EV's: Bush 201, Kerry 337

Pct: Bush 45.30%, Kerry 52.87%

http://electionprojection.com/elections2004.html

Another website, ( I camt rmember the name, gives him the election by similar numbers)

Another web site calculates current electoral votes by current polls and as of today they have Kerry ahead with:

Kerry

Total 16 states for 238 EV

Solid Blue: 10 states for 163

Leaning towards: 6 states for 75 EV


Bush

17 states for 168 EV

Solid Red: 13 States for 122 EV

Leaning towards: 4 States for 46 EV


There are 10 States too close to tell for 102 Electoral votes

8 states with no polls for 30 electoral votes


http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/CurrentPolls.htm

SOmetimes it seems like it is going to be a close race, but other times it seems that Kerry is going to win by a significant margin. In any case, most scenarios have Kerry winning. Which is good by my standards.

[still_one]

11. Interesting here's how it compares to Zogby in May:

MAY JUNE
BUSH KERRY BUSH KERRY
ARKANSAS 49 46 51 43
FLORIDA 48 49 47.9 49.5
IOWA 50 45 47.6 48.9
MICH 41 50 45 49
MINN 42 51 43 50
MISSOURI 44 47 48 47
NEVADA 44 47 44 47
NH 40 50 44 48
NM 43 48 48.1 47.7
OHIO 45 49 49.1 46.3
OREGON 44 50 44 50
PENN 43 51 44 51
TENN 49 47 54 42
WASH 44 53 44 52
West VA 48 46 43 46
WISCONSIN 44 52 44 50

KERRY leads in 11/16 in MAY
KERRY still leads in 11/16 in JUNE

Though it does look like the gap has closed in some states. We lost some ground in Missouri, but definitely gained in West VA

On the whole I think there is no change statistically, but I sure hope that we get a significant bump after the release of the movie F911, and when Kerry chooses his Vice President

The whole thing makes me very nervous

[troublemaker]

12. Kerry leads in ALL battleground states

Bush 45, Kerry 43 is actually Bush 47, Kerry 51, Nader 2.

Everyone who has spent a day in his life around politics knows that. Every campaign operative... every journalist... everyone. I don't mind 'horse race' campaign coverage but I dislike *pretending* there a tight race. To listen to the talking heads you would think that 5-8% of votes actually cast in Presidential elections are cast for "undecided." (The actual figure is zero.)

[Scoopie]

14. OK... this can't be reliable

How did Bush go from leading Kerry by less than 3 points in Tennessee in May to leading him by 11 points in June.
Bullshit.
I see NO Bush sticker, NO Bush signs and I live in the conservative side of the state; however, I do see new Kerry stickers and signs popping up all over the place.
Polling method must be off.

[Nicholas_J]

18. Tennessee

Is not considered a battleground state. One Zogbt Interactive polls brought Kerry close to Bush, but the rest of the polls in that state pretty much give the state to Bush. As most of the south is considered likely to go to Bush. The states that are strongly leaning towards Bush and where he has double digit leads are:

Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas,Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina.

Louisiana is leaning towards Bush with the last poll having Bush at 48 % Kerry at 42 %

Kentucky Leaning towards Bush Bush 49% Kerry 43 %



The last poll taken in Mississippi had Bush at 49 percent against generic Democrat at 29 %.

The southern states too close to tell, North Carolina with Bush at 48 percent, Kerry at 44%

Virginia with Bush at 47% Kerry at 45 %

Kerry is only ahead in:

West Virginia with Kerry at 46.6 Bush at 43.5

Florida

with Kerry at 49.5% and Bush at 47.9%

Looking at the map of the states, the closer you get to the Mason Dixon line, the higher Bush polls. Go North of Arkansas, to Missouri, and Bush is a little but ahead of Kerry ( 1 point and this state has recently been fluctuating between Kerry and Bush) Go one state furtther north, Iowa, and Kerry leads Bush by a point now. East of the Mississippi, this holds pretty firm, move state by stte Northwards, and Kerry pick up points until he leads.

Kerry is holding his very large leads in the very densely populated and high electoral vote Northeast, holds strong leads around the great lakes states except for Indiana and Ohio, Kerry leads and he has a good chance of taking Ohio, as most recent polls have had huim leading in that state.

Then Kerry has a strong hod on the entire west coast. Oregon seems to slip away occasionally in a few polls, but by and large, the state seems like it will go to Kerry.

Kerry's entire strategy now has to rely on keeping the states he is already ahead in , and widening his lead in those midwestern states where he is ahead, but not securely so. He is ahead in Florida, and needs to firm that up, and try to take Ohio. He can lose one of these states and win the electoral college by a good distance.

So the midwest is thew key to a Kerry win.

[democratreformed]

15. Stupid Arkansans

We have work to do!!!!!!