Mark Halperin On The Narrowing Chances For Clinton To Win

[slinkerwink]

Hillary Clinton knows she can only win the Democratic presidential nomination by finding a way to fight on through the party’s August convention in Denver. For now, she is battling one day at a time, trying to have enough success at the ballot box and in the media wars to keep her supporters on board and limit calls for her to quit.

Her macro goals: get superdelegates to turn to her based on her argument that Obama is less electable (or, what she really thinks, unelectable) against John McCain. If she can make it past the final voting in June and keep Obama from winning a mathematical majority, she intends to keep the contest going through Denver, hoping for some luck and unforeseen events that will allow her to overcome her rival’s current elected delegate lead.

As the coming weeks play out, however, here are the factors that have the most potential to threaten Clinton’s plan.

1. A loss or (only) narrow win in Pennsylvania.

2. A loss in Indiana (and North Carolina).

3. Nancy Pelosi.

4. Harry Reid.

5. Her labor supporters.

6. Al Gore.

7. The Mark Penn mess not ending.

8. Obama’s massive TV ad spending.

9. Key staff resignations.

10. The sloppy-yet-surgical verbal hand of Ed Rendell.

11. The way the press handles future developments, large and small (i.e. the freaking out over her supposed compulsive habit of deceit and exaggeration) — and the press’ incessant calls for her to leave the race because she “can’t” win the nomination.

12. The debate(s).

13. Increased overt pressure should McCain’s national poll numbers improve.

14. Subtle pressure caused by the omission of Clinton’s name by McCain surrogates and other Republicans when discussing the general election, generally.

15. Bill Clinton on the loose.

[Hawkeye-X]

1. Hey slinkerwink.. good post..

Might want to fix the code :]

[slinkerwink]

3. just did

[roguevalley]

15. you can't discount the bad publicity of getting collection agencies

on their case. that is in the news now.

[slinkerwink]

2. I know Halperin's a total stooge, but his take on this is informative because the media follows him

[FrenchieCat]

4. #15 is deadly......in particular as it relates to Colombia and the

$800,000 worth of "just words"!

[slinkerwink]

5. yep. that should be beaten ad infinitum in Pennsylvania. That's dirty money right there.

[Lou Queb]

6. Somebody enlightens me please. how is Mark Halperin, why is he a stooge ?

[slinkerwink]

7. ok, Mark Halperin is a stooge because he makes misogynistic comments

like at this link here:

http://mediamatters.org/items/200802190006?f=s_search

[elocs]

8. I can remember when Hillary had a humongous, seemingly insurmountable amount of money.

Enough to beat off and crush all challengers. Then along came Obama. Now she is only left with trashing Obama, puffing up any speck of dirt into a mountain, eye gouging him, doing any and everything to win. Yes, they are competing for quarterback on the same team, but she seems to be willing to break his leg to win the job even if it hurts the team in the regular season. What a sad way for her to be remembered.

[slinkerwink]

9. and that should be the question. Does she want to be remembered as a bad loser or a gracious loser?

[tishaLA]

10. this "unelectable" stuff...

Hillary and her camp have believed that Sen Obama is unelectable since the beginning of this and no amount of primaries, popular voting leads, or delegates will make her change her mind. I have no doubt that she believes it, and has always believed it, but it's belief against all proof.

[galaxy21]

11. The idea of this going to the convention is frightening

[GarbagemanLB]

12. and a guaranteed McCain victory. Say hello to at least 2 more conservative justices on the SC

[galaxy21]

13. Hopefully she'll realize arguing he's uneletable won't work with the superdelegates

By all accounts, she's been saying this to a few supers and she's only gotten one in the last few weeks.

[slinkerwink]

16. I think they're confused why the Wright argument isn't working

[slinkerwink]

14. it's crazy illogic