Can Obama change the political map?

[BzaDem]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0408/9464.html

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"Perhaps the most talked about state that could change its stripes is Virginia. First Mark Warner and now Tim Kaine, both Democrats, have occupied the governor’s mansion. Democrats control the state Senate. In the 111th Congress, Virginia will likely have two Democratic senators. Northern Virginia is trending Democratic, with once solidly Republican Fairfax County voting for John F. Kerry in 2004.

Democrats hope that Obama’s dual pull among African-Americans — who account for about 20 percent of the state — and the young, educated and independent voters of Northern Virginia will turn this state blue. But Bush won Virginia by more than 8 percentage points and more than 260,000 votes in 2004. If the black vote increased by 20 percent, or approximately 140,000 votes, and if Obama doubled Kerry’s margin of victory in Northern Virginia from about 80,000 to 160,000, he would still fall short.

The problem for Obama is that the states with large percentages of black voters or upscale and educated voters are generally states that are not very competitive.

Obama may win Republican states such as Arizona, Colorado and Virginia if he wins the national popular vote by more than 5 percent. But don’t expect him to change the map in a close election. "

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[TheWraith]

1. He will win by a lot more than 5%.

A double-digit national win is certainly possible. We're not winning Arizona, though. Come on, McCain's been representing AZ since it became a state.

[Double T]

2. NO.

There are going to be a lot of VERY disappointed people when BO CAN NOT deliver on his hope and change.

[Kittycat]

3. Of course he will. Because good democrats like yourself

will be right there with good democrats like me - doing the grassroots thing, and making sure every neighborhood in our respective districts turns out a blue vote for Obama.

[C_U_L8R]

4. He has already

and it's the best thing to happen for the Democratic Party in decades.

GOBAMA