Reality check: polling in Pennsylvania

[Buzz Clik]

Here's where the polls were when Obama (and I assume Clinton) opened their campaign headquarters in March:




And here they are today:




Clinton has picked up a point and Obama has picked up six for a net gain of +5 for Obama.

It won't change much between now and the voting.

Hillary needs a 15+ victory in this last, benchmark state for her to make any inroads at all.

[williesgirl]

1. Let's hope she continues to open mouth, insert foot. rec'd

[Buzz Clik]

3. I'm assuming that the revelations about Penn and his involvement with Colombia will resonate.

[Coexist]

2. .

[JimGinPA]

4. I Hope Obama Spends Some Of Next Week In PA...

It could make him a winner here.

[Buzz Clik]

5. He's been laying the groundwork in Indiana, where is also is close.

He'll be back.

[Lucky 13]

6. Reality check: Reality does not matter to Hillary supporters.

:crazy:

[Buzz Clik]

8. Oh, my. I truly used an unfortunate choice of words in my title.

:blush:

[4_Legs_Good]

7. Great post Buzz Clik

Those lines will intersect at about infinity. PA is demographically allied with Clinton, and I don't think she can be overtaken there, but I also don't think she can perform well enough for it to matter much.

David

[Buzz Clik]

9. "Those lines will intersect at about infinity." All right! Another DUer with a taste for trends.

I couldn't agree more on both counts.

[BlueIdaho]

10. It will b e Clinton by five

not nearly enough - that will be followed by her suspending her campaign due to funding issues - hey Bill doesn't want to waste all his money on this lost cause.

[me b zola]

11. PA seems to comparable to TX

Obama came very close to winning the TX popular vote, and indeed ended up winning the state. PA seems to have a similar energy to it.

[Buzz Clik]

12. You could be right, but Texas took less time to merge the numbers.

I'm thinking that this will be something of an average of Ohio and Texas.

[MagickMuffin]

21. The Texas numbers, I don't really consider it a big blowout for Hillary

Hillary Clinton .........50.89%

Barack Obama ........47.36%

[me b zola]

22. That's right, it wasn't. Obama came back from trailing by double digits

and closed the gap. The cherry on the cake was Obama ended up winning TX overall. Buzz Click could be right, Obama's finish in PA most probably will finish somewhere in between OH & TX--very few net delegates, 5 or less, going to Clinton. Then on to Obama's blow-out in NC. :)

[MagickMuffin]

24. I did find it extremely interesting how Hillary's Texas "Win" was considered to be such a BLOWOUT

but wasn't that big after all.

More interesting is Barack's numbers always seem to catch up to Hillary's after he gets started in the next state contest. He was trailing double digits in Texas and started to close the gap when he got going here.

Same thing happening in PA. Which I knew would happen. I don't think Hillary will win by a large margins, I'm hoping she doesn't win PA at all. Of course if she loses PA by a narrow margin, then Camp Clinton will pretend it didn't matter that much anyway. Seems to be their MO.

[polichick]

13. Thanks for the post - I do think it'll tighten up though...

There's amazing stuff happening on the ground here ~ every time volunteers call or visit "undecided" voters, more and more have moved to the Obama camp. Rarely do you find a voter going the other way.

[Buzz Clik]

14. Outstanding!

Obama is visiting our town, and I cannot go!! :cry:

But, I dropped off the kids with cameras and a dash of immense jealousy.

I'll post pics when (and if :eyes:) I get the camera back.

[polichick]

15. Oh, I wish you could've been there - he was here yesterday...

I was just a few feet above him as he shook hands and I said, "We're with you." He looked up at me and smiled so kindly. He's gracious and respectful toward everyone ~ I don't know how he keeps up the pace.

I hope your kids have a great time!

[Gore1FL]

16. You are being a little generous

Clinton won;t make a dent with 15%. Her hole is deep enough now to need closer to a 30% win. Less than 10% should start a a few fmore delegates towards Obama. Anything more than a 10% win in NC for Obama should open the fucets a little more, assuming Indiana isn't a Clinton blowout.

[Barack_America]

17. These polls also don't sample newly registered voters...

So, quite frankly, I don't trust them.

But I like the spread in these new polls. Just close enough to give us hope, but far enough to give us a kick in the ass.

[Zachstar]

18. Indeed if Obama keeps it within 10 percent it will be politcal disaster for Clinton!

Because the way things are set up she will get very few net delegates out of such low numbers.

[FlyingSquirrel]

19. Actually all those ad buys could bump Obama up a bit

seriously. Also he's been closing the gap by about 2% per week so by April 22 it could be Clinton 49.6%, Obama 45.6% or more (average of all polls).

[chill factor]

20. I know one thing.....

I am going to be glued to the TV all day of the PA primary, mostly CNN because they have coverage most of the day, wondering whether I am going to swallow my heart or have it burst with joy!

[Life Long Dem]

23. Hillary is leveling off and Obama is still in a steep climb.

[Buzz Clik]

25. The noise in each of their numbers is starting to overlap. It will be less clear from here forward.

The uncertainty in the polling numbers plus the number of undecideds (what Olbermann calls the "Keith number") suggest that a wide range of outcomes on voting day is possible.

[Buzz Clik]

26. The trends modified for the new Zogby poll:

Notice that, for the very first time in PA, Clinton is trending DOWN.

The gap is now 6, a +6 for Obama since the first week of March (see the OP).

Daily polls mean nothing. Individual polls are risky. But these trends? Well ... stay tuned.