Newsweek: The Pennsylvania Strategy: 'Inevitability 2.0'

[Bigleaf]

Snippets from the article below:


LEVITTOWN, Penn.--Who's inevitable now?

If Malvern, with its upscale, Main Line Democrats and potential crossover voters, is home to a constituency that Obama must preserve to stay within striking distance, Levittown represents the folks he needs to convince in order to win--the working-class "ethnic" whites who lean toward Hillary Clinton.


And yet instead of using the diverse demographics to draw contrasts with Clinton--a skill the Illinois senator honed in earlier states where he trailed his rival, like Ohio and Texas--Obama largely acted if she didn't exist. Which is unusual when you're in second place--to say the least.


That said, to infer that Obama isn't playing to win in Pennsylvania would be, well, wrong. Instead, he's playing to seem like he isn't playing to win. The reason? Expectations. Currently, they're sky-high for Clinton, who has a "home-game" advantage--and significantly lower for Obama. (Plus, Obama will preserve his near-insurmountable lead in the pledged delegate count no matter what happens.) So while the senator quietly outspends Clinton more than three-to-one on the airwaves, he refrains from overreaching on the stump. Any overt attack would prompt the sort of bar-raising response previewed by Clinton spokesmen Howard Wolfson today on a conference call with reporters: " doing everything he can to win in Pennsylvania, and if he can't, it'll be a serious defeat." Obama wants to surprise on Primary Night--not underwhelm. So he isn't giving Wolfson any ammo. Instead, he focuses his fire on John McCain--and, by extension, George W. Bush, whom he never fails to portray as the Arizonan's ideological twin. "You have a very clear choice in this election," Obama told Malvern today. "If you believe the economy is on the right path, McCain will be the right candidate for you... He'll deliver more of the Bush-Cheney-McCain policy that says, 'you're on your own.'" In framing "this election" as the general rather than the primary (and his opponent as McCain rather than Clinton), Obama gets to skip the potentially divisive process of dissing a fellow Democrat (especially one he barely disagrees with on the issues). But by drawing sharper contrasts vis a vis the GOP, he can still rile up the partisans in the audience--while subtly hinting that he's already won the nomination.

Call it Inevitability 2.0.


http://www.blog.newsweek.com/blogs/stumper/archive/2008/04/09/obama-pa.aspx

[madrchsod]

1. good strategy

meanwhile hillary is still saying she will make sure the voters in michigan and florida are counted...good luck hillary

[ericgtr]

2. Great read and insightful view on Obama's strategy

I agree that Obama is focusing on McCain and not Hillary is in his best interest. It keeps the Clinton campaign in the back seat.

K&R
:kick:

[damntexdem]

3. About time -- McCain is the real enemy.

If HRC won't end the distraction from fighting the enemy, it's time for Obama to largely ignore her and target the true enemy.

[roguevalley]

12. smart not to poke the clinton hornet nest. no sense giving her ammo

or even weak remarks to build into a teetering edifice of outrage.

[azmouse]

4. K&R

[hfojvt]

5. I like the way he brings in YOYO

it shows he is pushing alternative framing and contrasting the difference YOYO vs. WITT.

[Raine]

6. Good for him

a very good plan! :thumbsup:

[GarbagemanLB]

7. I love it. Ignoring Hillary only reinforces her image as the '3rd wheel' in the public's eye. Smart.

[cui bono]

8. Exactly what we should do here on DU. Ignore Hillary.

Mathematically it's over for her. No point criticizing her and alienating her supporters more. It will be extremely difficult for me not to respond to some of the posts defending her, but I'm going to give it a shot.

[roseBudd]

9. POTUS & congress are like both chess & poker, Obama has game, he is very clever

And clever is what progressives need.

[4_Legs_Good]

11. Aye, and he's go the long game in mind with a WIN at the end

unlike his opponent, who has a long game in mind with a lose at the end.

David

[4_Legs_Good]

10. Exactly the situation

and exactly the right game plan.

Go for it, but don't expect a win, and MOST OF ALL, Don't count on a win!

David