Why do Clinton supporters think she is more electable? 7 questions

[woolldog]

1. How is Clinton more electable when the only way she can get to the GE is by getting the super delegates to overturn the will of the voters and, in the process, alienating many in the democratic party who believe their candidate played by the rules and won?

2. How is Clinton going to win PA in the General if she can't run up overwhelming numbers with the AA vote in Philly and moderates in the Philly burbs?

3. How will Clinton win MI and OH without significant support from AAs? (OH and MI are states with AA populations that vote heavily democratic (75+%), in good numbers, states where Democratic candidates have in the past barely won or lost by thin margins. In 2004 we won Michigan by a mere 160K votes. Same with Ohio in 2000.)

4. How is Clinton going to win the GE without Wisconsin, Oregon, Washington, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Ohio?

5. How will Clinton turn around all these critical blue states she's currently trailing in against McCain when, to date, her campaign hasn't shown any ability to "close the distance" and come from behind, through vigorous campaigning?

6. How is Clinton more electable when she has proven herself a poor campaigner, with poor organizational and management skills, at best?

7. How is Clinton more electable when her unfavorable ratings exceed her favorables?

[splat]

1. Sophomoric flamebait

[MonkeyFunk]

2. consider the source

[woolldog]

3. How is that flamebait?

Those are facts.

[pinkpops]

19. whats a AA?

[woolldog]

22. AA=African American

[pinkpops]

23. OK Yeah duh

[TahitiNut]

11. Yup. Everyone knows that the best way to start a flame is to ask folks to rub two ...

... petrified brain cells together over a bed of mental frustration. :rofl:

[Symarip]

4. I'll tell you how

Two words:

ELTON MOTHERFUCKIN' JOHN

That's how!

[BzaDem]

5. If she wins the popular vote, there won't be an outrage if the Super-Ds give her the nomination.

Including FL. I know so many of you whine about the rules all day long, but unfortunately for you, most people outside this forum won't be outraged if FL were counted (lol). And she has several favorable states coming up to close the popular vote gap.

That eliminates all your points about a mass alienation of people from the democratic party. She will win Ohio, MI, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Washington. She doesn't need NM.

The whole "close the distance" argument is rediculous. Obama is only able to "close the distance" because this is a DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY. Not the GE. Even after his major ad-blitzes, seen by all parties, he still doesn't "close the distance" with McCain.

[woolldog]

6. What makes you think she will win

OH, WI, MI OR, and WA when she's shown no indication that she can come from behind and make up ground through campaigning?

[BzaDem]

9. She doesn't need to come from behind to win OH. She is ahead in OH.

Obama is not.

Obama can win WI, MI, OR, and WA. He still will not win the election if he doesn't win OH and PA. Period. I would much rather run a candidate that just has to keep strong blue states blue, than run a candidate who does horribly in swing states that are always a challenge for us.

[woolldog]

12. McCain is ahead in Ohio Mac-47- Hil-42

Obama has shown the ability to close the gap and campaign effectively. Clinton hasn't. The more voters get to know her, the worse it seems she does. It's the opposite with Obama. The candidate who is a better campaigner would be my pick.

Also Obama need only win either PA or OH. I've analyzed this issue already and I can give you a link to my analysis if you're interested in my reasoning.

Ohio poll:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/ohio/election_2008_ohio_presidential_election

[BzaDem]

13. That's one poll. Many other polls have put Hillary ahead of McCain by more than the MOE.

And you are right that it is theoretically possible for him to win only PA or only OH. But the chances are very low. You are relying on switching several states that went red (not just one, which would be an accomplishment, but several, which would be extremely difficult). If Obama can't turn a swing state blue (by changing the outcome by 1% in OH and holding onto PA), it is very unlikely that he will be able to switch not just one but several red states blue.

If there were just one state that was close in 04 that if we turned, would offset OH, then I might agree. But he would have to do it in 3 or 4 states. That's just math; the probability of doing something goes down if you have to do it multiple times.

[woolldog]

14. No, it's actually quite reasonable for him to win only PA

and get enough electoral votes with room for error. Of course he wouldn't NOT campaign in Ohio and MO and VA also. But he has a nice base of support to work from. I don't think Hillary has that luxury. (I prefer to stick with one pollster instead of cherrypicking pollsters.)

Here's an example. I think it's reasonable one given available polling data. This isn't including states like South Dakota and Alaska where he seems to be competitive:

[earthlover]

7. Looks like nobody bothered to try to answer any of the OP's questions....

Hillary can't win. People don't trust her. People don't like her. People think she is a two-faced politician who will say anything for personal gain. Obama has been tasteful enough to not make a big deal about Hillary's SniperGate problem. If she were the nominee....you can BET the repukes would make a big/huge deal of it....

If people don't trust a candidate....it makes no difference about anything else he/she says....since if you are not trusted you are not believable....

[woolldog]

10. They can't answer those questions.

So they'd rather attack the messenger...

[leftofcool]

15. Exactly, which is why Obama is a poor candidate

He is not trustworthy

[woolldog]

17. Wanna take a stab at 1 or 2 of my questions?

:shrug:

[TahitiNut]

8. She isn't ... and becomes less so each day.

Her campaign is a clusterfuck and her one-trick pony came up lame. :shrug:

[WillYourVoteBCounted]

16. Clinton supporters are very loyal

that is how it is.

I read somewhere an account by a guy reporting on a Clinton rally,
he sais he saw seasoned activists, also alot of older white women.

Many are excited about electing a women, this may be their only chance
in their lifetimes to see that happen.

It just is what it is.

Clinton years were better than Bush years.

But we've paid for their mistakes.

[splat]

18. It may all women's only chance for a woman prez, they just don't realize it yet

[PseudoIntellect]

20. Excellent post, some things I'd never thought of before.

Number 4 is questionable because of the assumptions that are made that she can't win those. But it's a great example, still, because it's EXACTLY the kind of logic that Hillary campaign is using to try and win. "Only Hillary can win PA and OH, and Obama simply will NEVER EVER EVER win there." Yeah, who cares that he closes the gaps every time leading up to elections. It simply won't happen.

[woolldog]

21. Thanks.

Feel free to appropriate this.

The basis of #4 is that Clinton is losing all those states in recent polls. You'll notice that when Obama is behind McCain in a poll, nonstop questions about his electability are raised. Yet we don't hear about Clinton failing/running behind in some key blue states, like WI and NM.