McCain erases Obama 10-point national lead

[Saturday]

I just have to scratch my head when I see polls like this. How could either of our candidates not beat McCain in the GE? It is mind boggling.

WASHINGTON - Republican Sen. John McCain has erased Sen. Barack Obama's 10-point advantage in a head-to-head matchup, leaving him essentially tied with both Democratic candidates in an Associated Press-Ipsos national poll released Thursday.

The survey showed the extended Democratic primary campaign creating divisions among supporters of Obama and rival Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and suggests a tight race for the presidency in November no matter which Democrat becomes the nominee.

McCain is benefiting from a bounce since he clinched the GOP nomination a month ago. The four-term Arizona senator has moved up in matchups with each of the Democratic candidates, particularly Obama.


An AP-Ipsos poll taken in late February had Obama leading McCain 51-41 percent. The current survey, conducted April 7-9, had them at 45 percent each. McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents.

Clinton led McCain, 48-43 percent, in February. The latest survey showed the New York senator with 48 percent support to McCain's 45 percent. Factoring in the poll's margin of error of 3.1 percentage points, Clinton and McCain are statistically tied.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24051361/

[Vinca]

1. We can beat him, but we need a nominee very, very soon.

If we don't have one until the convention, it will be an uphill climb against McBush. (Something I would have never believed in a million years.)

[tekisui]

2. McCain is getting a free pass right now.

Until he faces the Dem Nom one on one, he slides by.

He has given us a gaffe a day, but all eyes are still on the Dem race. I suspect he is at his high point, right now.

[mwb970]

5. This is as good as McCain is going to get.

The more people learn about McCain, the less they like him, just like with bush (big surprise). No matter which Dem is nominated, he/she will look and sound great next to this doddering, barely pre-senile old white man. McCain is sad and pathetic, not qualities most of us want in a president.

[Red Zelda]

3. No vote has been cast. No lead has been set.

And yet we have these daily numbers. Absurd.

[sellitman]

4. If we can't win it this time

We might as well fold our tent and go home.

We will NEVER win another National election.

With how bad the repiggies have screwed this country the fact that this could even be a horse race is sickening.

[mwb970]

7. It is hard to imagine McCain winning.

(I know, it was hard to imagine bush winning in 2000, too.)

81% say we are on the wrong track, with that number still rising, and we are going to elect another Republican, one who is promising a third bush term? On what planet?

I really don't see how such a terribly flawed candidate can win in this environment.

[Zachstar]

6. I do not see why anyone is looking at the McCain in Comparason support right now.

The Democrats are not in GE mode right now.

McCain is bouncing around and gaining support in multiple states While Obama is stuck campaigning for the Primary still.

So Naturally McCain is going to kick ass. How multiply that by months till the convention and you see why this race needs to end and we need a presumptive nominee!

[EstimatedProphet]

8. He'll win the GE, mark my words

The media is going to paint him as the 2nd coming of Christ, and both of our candidates will be represented as idiots or corrupt, or both. If our candidates manage to consistently refute how they are portrayed, the media will simply quit covering them.

[JVS]

9. We need to unify behind Obama, or McCain will be president.

[rodeodance]

15. We need to unify behind Clinton, or McCain will be president.--a little tweet helps

[krawhitham]

18. We need to unify behind the current leader, not the long shot

[iamjoy]

10. It's Understandable

I don't think people are really paying attention. We need to educate them.

I was talking to a co-worker (a Democrat) and he said he liked McCain. He went on to say that McCain was pro-Choice, which was important. I had to inform him that McCain wants to see Roe overturned and would appoint justices who would do that - more Scalias and Thomases.

We cannot deceive ourselves about McCain's strengths as a candidate. He has this reputation as a war hero (true to whatever extent anyone who served and was a POW is a hero), he has a reputation as a maverick because he has bucked party line on some key issues and sponsored key legislation that is well known and bears his name along with a Democrat (campaign finance reform). He has years of experience, and some people consider that important.

We need to educate people that McCain is not really any of these things (or at least not anymore). The media may help us a little more once we have our nominee - the media has several biases and one of them is they love a horse race, they love a good story. If Obama is our nominee, expect the theme to be age/experience vs. youth/ideas. If Clinton is, it will be harder on her because McCain has a reputation for honesty and integrity and Clinton doesn't (not fair, but the perception). But Clinton is tough and I fully believe she will exploit McCain's weaknesses in a way Obama won't. Whether it works or backfires is anyone's guess.

Anyway, people don't know McCain and we can only hope that our party gets the message out about him. We can hope Chairman Dean and other interest groups are just biding their time to educate the public - waiting until closer to the election when it will have the most affect. We will have our part to do through letters to the editors, talking to our neighbors and friends, etc. Right now, the Democratic race is more exciting and the media loves exploiting all the negativity between the two candidates. They love talking about how this could hurt our chances in the Fall so if McCain wins, they can sound knowledgeable (we told you so, and we know why).

I'm not worried yet. If these are the numbers in September, I'll worry. Does anyone know where Clinton was against Bush this time in 1992?

[Ilithiad]

16. Clinton

Bill clinton did not get the nomination until june and he went on to server two terms right? Have patience. Just because mcCain is the republican nominee and the democrats dont have a clear one yet does not mean the election is given to the republicans on a silver platter. Remember this is the first time since 1961 that we will have a senator president. This is the first time a strong serious black man is running...this is the first time a woman is running. These are all difficult variables to weigh in ones mind.

[iamjoy]

17. Yes, I Realize

I realize Clinton didn't get the nomination until late in the primary process, I was looking to see if anyone knew poll numbers, or rather, predictions from April 92 of who would win the upcoming election.

[GoldieAZ49]

11. McCain leads Obama among men, whites, Southerners, married women and independents

That is it right there, security moms and the white male vote

regardless of who our nominee is, if we cannot get enough support from these two groups we cannot win

A thread from a few days ago shows the info with links to the article, it is well known in the party that we have lost the white male vote and have not won an election without it.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5424487

[berni_mccoy]

12. Obama has a big bruise on his forehead because Clinton hit him with the Kitchen sink

Once that bruise goes away, Obama will be back up on top.

And I don't know why you are concerned about Obama. Clinton has blown a 20 point lead since she started.

[Medusa]

13. I've said all along this is going to be a much toughter election for us

than some think it will.

[Bolo Boffin]

14. Relax.

No matter who the nominee is, you are going to see a tremendous swell of support after he or she is chosen. Then we'll talk numbers.

[uponit7771]

19. The fact that he's tide with McSame is a good thing IMHO, McSames image has been left alone while BO

...has been beat on by Hillary et al.

When we get in the GE and double digit leads start to arise then I think we'll know something

[Alcibiades]

20. I'd rather not have a big lead now, thank you

It's paradoxical, but it seems whenever our nominee has a big early lead they get trounced. Last time around, Kerry seemed like a sure thing in the middle of the summer.

There may be some actual benefit to this long primary season--the Republicans don't know who they are going to have to swiftboat yet. They are ready for either one, to be sure, but they need to get their timing right. Too soon, and it's old news by Nov. 4, too late and it doesn't have time to work.

Hmmm--maybe a brokered convention wouldn't be such a bad thing. Maybe then they will announce the dream ticket and shock the world. (Doubt that, but you never know.)