Where does the trend go now?

[thevoiceofreason]

In Texas and Ohio, we saw similar phenomena. In each case, Hillary initially led Barack by a wide margin (in the vicinity of 20 points, but that is not the point). In each case, Hillary had a deep-seated, natural advantage born of the many years of name-recognition and the vestiges of positive memories from Bill's presidency (I know that sounds a bit snarky, but really, Hillary personally or as senator didn't do squat for Texas - ever). In each case, Hillary had another "natural" advantage of a constitutency that was "certain" to vote for her (Texas: the hispanic population -- Ohio: the lunch-bucket crowd). In each case, Barack made his presence known with visits, grassroots organization and ad buys, closing the gap tremendously. In each case, a poll or two even went so far as showing Barack in the lead. Near the end, Hillary's numbers stabilized, and she emerged with a popular vote majority in each race in the 3-9% range (I'm an Obama fan, so I already know about the victory regarding overall delegates in Texas). See also California and New Jersey.

In Pennsylvania, it is almost deja vu all over again. Hillary initially led Barack by a wide margin (again in the vicinity of 20 points). In Pennsylvania, Hillary has a deep-seated, natural advantage born of the many years of name-recognition and the vestiges of positive memories from Bill's presidency. Hillary has another "natural" advantage of a constitutency that was "certain" to vote for her (see comments by Ed Rendell). Now, Barack made his presence known with visits, grassroots organization and ad buys, closing the gap tremendously. In Pennsylvania, a poll or two even went so far as showing Barack in the lead. Now, Hillary's numbers have stabilized, and she has emerged with a popular poll lead in the race in the 3-10% range. In other words, Hillary has accomplished her "comeback" move, but there is trouble in River City. What's that you say? There are still 11 days until the vote.

The point is: What's next? According to Camp Hillary, this flow is the natural result of Barack's limitations and he has "hit his ceiling." Somehow, I doubt that. I anticipate no bombshell, no earth-shattering revelation. Instead, with these extra 11 days, I beleive we will see a refreshed approach toward familiarizing the voters of Pennsylvania with Senator Obama. Moreover, we will see a renewed concentration of the Obama ground game. Further, contrary to the belief held forth by some, I think the voters in Pennsylvania will respond well as they continue to get to know Senator Obama, and that this knowledge will allow him to close the gap once again. Will he win Pennsylvania's popular vote? Doubtful, but possible. Does he need to? Nope.

Remember: Hillary has to win Pennsylvania by 15% to have it have any noticeable impact on Barack's delegate lead. And that's the only metric that matters -- delegates.