Latest PA poll confirms the pundits' presumptions the gap is widening (if widening=staying close).

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

from Temple (concluded 4/9): Clinton up 6.
from PPP (concluded 4/8): Clinton up 3.
from Insider Advatage (concluded 4/8): Clinton up 10.
from Rasmussen (concluded 4/7): Clinton up 5.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html
http://www.pollster.com/08-PA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php

The second link shows the trajectory/trend lines of each candidate's support. Clinton's has flattened, Obama's hasn't a bit.

[Selatius]

1. Obama is catching up, in short, given the second link. He's moving fairly quick. n/t

[gateley]

2. There are some dramatic differences

depending on the polls, which is what everyone has been saying.

That should give any of us who don't like the results hope! :7

I feel kind of dirty knowing Mark Penn and I are reading the same thing.

[goldcanyonaz]

3. You forgot this one Clinton 56, Obama 38

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=c79e5bab-a424-49f6-86d6-50c61cf729b7

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

5. previously explored ad nauseum on another thread SUSA's out-liers

thanks, though

[goldcanyonaz]

6. SUSA has been the closest to the results this primary season.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

10. to get a fuller picture, see this thread's OP (link below) and post #9 in particular

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5436920&mesg_id=5436920

[Moderate-Democrate]

4. I think she will win by double digits

What do you all think?

[Hepburn]

7. I think she needs to deal with reality and....

...drop out of the race. Each day she remains in, we lose more time in going after McCain. But since she endorsed him over Obama, maybe that is what she truly wants.

[bellasgrams]

14. She didn't endorse McCain, McCain is just more experienced.

That is true. If a white man with the same credentials was running he'd been out of the race along time ago. BO just happens to be what some people are looking for, but are not concerned about his qualifications or experience. It's a shame that people are satisfied to do this at this time with the country in the shape it is in. Anyone that gets in is stepping in at a very bad time, and the best we've got is not BO.

[Zhade]

21. It sure sounded like an endorsement.

She basically said "if FP is your thing, vote for me or McLame".

[Alter Ego]

22. Hell, Ted Stevens has been in the Senate since the dawn of time.

Does that make him more qualified to be President than Barack Obama?

[Drunken Irishman]

23. Yes, Obama is being supported only because he's black.

I'm glad you said it! I mean, if you didn't, I would've never known I was supporting Obama because of his skin color!

I thank you for letting me see the light.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

24. snipers, snicker, Mark Penn, giggle, MLK handshake, bwa-ha-ha-ha!!!!!!

[Eric Condon]

25. Ferraro, is that you?

The M$M stopped giving you a forum to spew your racist crap, so I knew it was only a matter of time before you took it to DU.

[goldcanyonaz]

8. That's what I'm hoping for.

[City Lights]

11. Absoutely! By 20 points at least. Anything less would be a devastating loss

considering the HUGH!!!!! lead she's had there for so long.

[bellasgrams]

13. She will win by double digits

[SoCalDem]

9. She needed to win EVERY primary after WI...by at least 20%

to even hope to catch up..

She did not
She cannot

Game Over


Most people know it, but she's determined to be the democratic Hucka-she in a yellow pantsuit...wandering around, pretending that she can still win ... sad and embarrassing.. (like a jilted finacee who keeps driving by the ex & his wife's house)..She's turned into Eleanor Rigby...or Miss Havisham

[TahitiNut]

12. Hillary Custer is hoping for sunset to save her from Barack Bull

The poll-of-polls 'gap' has closed to less than 7 percentage points. Considering the delegate allocation algorithms that amplify reliably Democratic districts, it's reasonable to conclude that the 'gap' in awarded delegates will be closer than the statewide polling indicates.

[cindyw]

15. Gobama. Just remember he doesn't have to win PA. Just place a good Second.

He will be our nominee. Everyone should get used to saying "Democratic nominee for President, Barack Obama"

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

16. roger that.

[PBS Poll-435]

18. If he finished 3rd....

Then you might have something to worry about

}(

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

19. third would be bad

[PBS Poll-435]

17. Wahoo!!!

Obama's support is still 38-44%.

1 month of ads for this?

[Alter Ego]

20. Single digits, people, single digits.

Remember, the media is desperately trying to resurrect Hillary Clinton as an "insurgent". We know--and polls show--and anyone with half a brain realizes--two things:

1) She had almost a 2:1 lead in PA after March 4. For all the downplaying she and her supporters do, she's supported by some powerful political machinery. To make such a massive dent in her lead is remarkable, and well worth the money spent by the Obama campaign. She's down to less than 10, and in some cases less than 5.
2) This is a firewall state for her--meaning she not only needs to win, she needs to win by 15+ percentage points.
3) The current delegate math, for all Wolfson et al.'s spinning, does not lie--a substantial delegate lead for Obama means that unless she absolutely blasts him out of the water, she will make absolutely no meaningful gains--and she's running out of so-called "big" states.
4) Indiana, for all intents and purposes, is currently a tie, and Obama is ahead in NC, the last remaining "big state". Oregon, South Dakota, and Montana are also likely Obama states. Sure, West Virginia will probably go for her, and possibly Kentucky--but Guam and Puerto Rico are not going to save her.

What's the point of all this? The point is that we need to keep our expectations realistic. Obama winning PA in a surprise would be great--and it would absolutely break her campaign's back--but it's not likely to happen. However, what IS likely to happen is that he closes the margin to a small enough number to render her "win" meaningless.

[jackson_dem]

26. It depends on which data point you cherry pick. What is clear is O's momentum has stalled

Which was to be expected. There are only so many sheep you can purchase with ad blitzes.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

27. UPDATE: Zogby (take it or leave it) has the gap at 4 (FOUR) % today. Clinton 47, Obama 43.

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1477

[kennetha]

28. Look at the stability of Obama's numbers

He's going nowhere. He wanders around between a high of 45 and a low of 38 or 39 in the most recent polls. I think his ceiling is 45% and that he has a floor of 38%. His numbers have just been fluctuating up and down from poll to poll within the margin of error of the various polls. If the late deciders break big for Hillary, she will get somewhere between 55 and 62% of the vote. 55% is her low, 62% her absolute high.

Take the midpoint and she wins something like 58 - 42. A big win.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

29. And if the late-breakers go for Obama, the race officially ends in PA.