REAGAN-LIKE LANDSLIDE EYED

[AmyStrange]

REAGAN-LIKE LANDSLIDE EYED
Thu Jun 10, 2:25 AM ET Add Op/Ed - New York Post to My Yahoo!
By DEBORAH ORIN

FROM: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nypost/20040610/cm_nypost/reaganlikelandslideeyed&e=5
NOW is a good time to look back at the landslide win that sent Ronald Reagan (news - web sites) to the White House in 1980, because lots of analysts think 2004 could turn out the same way — close for a long time and then suddenly breaking wide open.

In 1980, the break came just days before the vote, when Democrat Jimmy Carter finally agreed to debate. Reagan came off as sunny instead of scary and when he admonished Carter with a smile, "There you go again," it was all over.

Like President Bush (news - web sites), Carter faced voters nervous over both the economy and foreign policy and wondering whether it's time for a change — in Carter's case, skyrocketing inflation at home plus the endless Iran hostage crisis.

But there's a big difference, since Carter kept getting bad news on both fronts, while Bush is starting to get good news on both the economy, with a surge in new jobs, and Iraq (news - web sites), with international support for the June 30 transfer of power.

<SNIP>

[LittleApple81]

1. Not very impartial, me thinks. It is the NY Post. n/t

[Sandpiper]

2. A Murdoch owned paper picking a victory for Bush

Imagine that.

And small wonder the new Iraqi government seems pro-American. They're a bunch of hand picked U.S. toadies.

[NMDemDist2]

3. I wouldn't pin my hopes on the stated reasons to fast

while Bush is starting to get good news on both the economy, with a surge in new jobs, and Iraq (news - web sites), with international support for the June 30 transfer of power.

The job numbers have been "Enron'd" and the "transfer of power" is far from a done deal. I think this is a truer picture

Like President Bush (news - web sites), Carter faced voters nervous over both the economy and foreign policy and wondering whether it's time for a change

[MikeG]

4. She's a Republican C**t.

[coloradodem2005]

5. It seems that Bush is not gaining any real ground.

The gas prices are way up, the torture scandal is taking him down. The plame incident is coming to fruition. Tenet resigned. The economy is not really improving and despite the face-time that he has gotten with Reagan's death (or maybe because of it) he is falling further behind Mr. Kerry in the polls.

[jfxgillis]

6. Another stupid fuckwit who doesn't understand ...

... the Iowa Electronic Markets, nor know its history.

How solid can it's predictive value be when the futures were running .90 Bush, .10 Gore on election eve in '00?

And I'm a trader there. Made $100 each on Gore and Hillary last time.

[Awsi Dooger]

8. Wow, that's bizarre compared to the offshore betting odds

Bush was a 5/9 favorite (bet 90 to win 50) on election eve 2000. I'm ashamed to admit I wagered $1600 to win $1000 on Bush a week earlier when he was 5/8. I bet what I think, not what I hope, and honestly rooted to forfeit the $2600 for 36 days, until the SCOTUS thievery.

I should get involved in that Iowa Electronics Market if it tilts to extreme on election eve. To be fair, the quoted odds on 2004 are not far off. It has generally been a pick 'em race among offshore books the last few months, down from Bush a 5/7 favorite early this year.

[jfxgillis]

13. OH!!!!! You violated rule two of sports betting.

Rule 1. Bet on teams you don't care about.

Rule 2: If your heart is involved, ONLY bet when your heart and your head agree.

The IEM is a hassle to join (which is good, it keeps net surfing stupid from screwing up the markets on emphemeral news), but consequently it's the best (i.e. most knowledgable) market.

[emulatorloo]

9. I have never understood the Fascination with the Iowa Electronic Markets

It has always seemed like rich repugs or wanna-be-rich-repugs playing games w themselves on the computer. . .Predictive in that it Predicts the way that Rich Repugs want it to be.

[jfxgillis]

12. Well, no. As I said, I'm a trader

And I'm not rich and I'm not a Republican.

If it were all Republicans, they couldn't make a market.

However, there actually IS a slight bias towards the GOP in the IEM, which means a smart Dem can make money by trading into the market.

And by the time an election rolls around, the market is usually quite predictive. Hillary was at .95 to Lazio's .05 by the time of election 2000.

[emulatorloo]

15. thnx for the clarification

That helps. . .

[MallRat]

14. Another futures market, Campaign 2004 contracts

I just posted this yesterday:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x545727

[jfxgillis]

16. They ALLOW short trading???

That's the only thing that pisses me off about IEM, although I understand why they don't: IEM is an academic exercise run on a shoestring with extremely low (zero in my case) transaction costs.

But I just might have to open an account at intrade. I've been DYING to sell Bush short. The best I could do to approximate it is "Buy Bundle" and sell the Bush portion.

Do you trade at intrade? Are they reliable about paying accounts?

[bushwakker]

7. Orin is a shrew.

Pure RW hackery masquerading as a "journalist".

[emulatorloo]

10. Wishful Thinking. . .

EOM

[lancdem]

11. I'll say

The better parallels are between Kerry and Reagan. An incumbent running even or behind less than five months before the election is much more likely to be the victim of a landslide than the beneficiary.