I think we have a winner: How to tell if Hillary's about to drop out

[FlyingSquirrel]

Gotta give Zachstar credit for this one.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x5477536#5477717

I'm slapping my forehead and saying, DUH!

Hillary started this race with a huge amount of Superdelegates on her side. She'll end this race before she loses that Superdelegate lead.

It's the only thing that makes sense. As long as she has that lead, she stays in. When it becomes clear she's about to lose it for good - that's when she will concede. That allows her to basically save some face, have at least a little of her pride intact. It'll seem gracious, leaving before the primaries play out (if that's when it happens). It has to happen before she loses that lead, because there's no chance she'll get it back and she knows it.

So start watchin', folks, if you weren't already. (It'll probably happen just after PA, or NC at the latest)

[Boz]

1. Not a chance, she doesn't care about face, She Is Ronald Reagan 1976

She would be out already if she cares what people think

She will take it to the convention, she will lose and hope she hurt Obama enough for her 2012

[FlyingSquirrel]

2. She cares about the backing of the Party Elite

She doesn't want to look like "damaged goods", like someone who lost the backing of the powerful within the party (regardless of the fact that many of the supers are guys like the college kid on the Daily Show). She will want to be able to point out that she still had the majority of the Superdelegate vote when she exited the race.

[countmyvote4real]

7. That's what I think, too. Thank you.

She stayed in this too long. I don't know how the Clintons exit gracefully. They have stomped all over this campaign. Still, it would be nice if they could slip away from this election. I don't think that is going to happen. Collectively, they have either damaged or truly exposed the Clinton agenda. Either way, it doesn't seem to be about the people.

[Diane R]

3. I would like to think you're right, but I truly believe she has no pride or sense of decency.

[Zachstar]

5. That has nothing to do with it.

Pride and Decency went out the window a while ago.

Political Power is what is going on now.

When she has the endorsement of the big names in the party she is rather safe politically.

If that super lead drops out she stands a big chance of losing even her seat in congress. She will look defeated and politically destroyed.

Take is as the difference between quitting and firing.

She quits before the superdelegate lead is lost it is like cartman saying "Screw you guys! Im going home" We forget about it in a few days and we move on.

She quits afterwards and it becomes a joke. A recurring element that will damage her political future for years to come.

[Hamlette]

4. How do you imagine she does it?

I remember thought 2000 thinking Nader would drop out.

I feel the same about her.

Although I agree she'll want to save face with the supers.

I just can't picture her bowing out. I can't picture that speech.

[Zachstar]

6. It is quite simple actually

Clinton exit speech parts


Hello everyone NICE crowd!

(Cheers)

I luv the democratic party!

The republicans SUCK!

I need to move on!!

I endorse Obama!

I suspend my campaign!

McCain Sucks!!

In congress I will continue to serve America!!

Bla Bla Bla.

Bye!

The pundits act shocked for a few days and then Clinton gets to slink away with little mention afterwards.

[FlyingSquirrel]

8. The Carter endorsement wouldn't hurt her

he's already hinted anyway. I don't buy the rumor that Gore is about to endorse, but if he were, I'm sure he'd tell her first and give her the chance to concede before he did. Because that would really open the floodgates.

[Zachstar]

10. Then again she may use the time to turn against Gore. (Extremely Unlikely)

Tho you are correct about opening the floodgates.

Another thing about gore endorsement.

The initial endorsement time line will see gore lose massive amounts of support from Clinton supporters. Support that will take about a month or two to recover from.

That time depends on when he endorses. Some Clinton supporters are already admitting that Clinton does not stand much of a chance anymore. After the 13th if Clinton is not leading I do not see that getting any better. Some may outright just say "Screw it" and change to Obama to start fighting McCain.

At that point the short term / long term ratio is most favorable and he can endorse.

Now all of this is IF he wants to endorse. For all we know he may want to endorse Clinton!

Need more info!

[davidpdx]

9. Squirrel I have wondered about that as well

Her SD lead has been crumbling down to next to nothing as of lately. The question is when, not if, he passes her in SD.

When we think back to Iowa and Obama's win, Clinton was still pretty much touted as the front runner because she lead in total delegates (pledged plus supers).

According to RCP the superdelegate race is:

Obama 226
Clinton 254

Clinton +28

[Zachstar]

11. Can anyone provide a schedule of state conventions?

We need to know the timeline for likely addon superdelegates.

[Yes We Did]

12. At no time will she be electable after this cycle. Worse than Edwards...

She will be damaged goods. Everything she has done up until this time will be Youtubed if she plans to run again. This is her only shot at becoming president.

The candidate who did not mess his chances up if he should lose this time is Obama. He has run a fantastic campaign and people will remember this. Clinton is history after this season.

The vast majority of the young electorate (those teens that are urging their parents to vote for Obama) will come of voting age and will never vote for her. She is living a fantasy if she thinks young people won't remember what she did. Why? The young people are paying attention to her right now.