AMERICAN RESEARCH GROUP - PA. (April 14) : Clinton 57 Obama 37

[The Ghost]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

(sorry if this was already posted)

[goldcanyonaz]

1. Well, G-D DAMN AMERICA!!

:woohoo:

[democrattotheend]

2. ARG, not Rasmussen

Still, disappointing. ARG has been crap in terms of the numbers but they accurately predicted a big shift toward Obama right before Wisconsin, so we can't discount this entirely.

[MattNC]

6. True

but from tied to 20 points? Their methodology is off in some capacity.

[The Ghost]

12. My apologies, I corrected.

No mislead intended. Very sorry.

[DerekJ]

41. Good, Glad to hear that... Don't forget everyone .. HC will beat Obama with 20 points.

Anything less, she loses.

[datopbanana]

3. I don't know anything about polling companies. but is ARG = Rasmussen?

[datopbanana]

5. ARG = A Rasmussen Groupie?

[UALRBSofL]

4. OP, wow, SNOBama really outdid himself

The poll must reflect SNOBama's comments from the BAY area. the leap in numbers are huge. :wtf:

[Hepburn]

9. I see you are a Ghouliani supporter.

So...what are you doing on the DU? :shrug:

[UALRBSofL]

23. Ms Hepburn it's true I like Miss Rudy

But only in drag. I like his idea that gay folks can get married and he is gay friendly. This is a photo of him in true drag when a couple, two guys had a fund raiser for him in NYC. But I'm a true demmy and that's how I have always voted. BTW, how did you know it was Miss Rudy?

[goldcanyonaz]

11. Was tied at 45 all just last week. Well, DAYUM!!

:woohoo:

:bounce:

[ShortnFiery]

13. Aren't you proud that you SHAMELESSLY use "Lee Atwater/Rove" tactics?

Does it FEEL good IF you choose to win DIRTY? :thumbsdown:

[Zodiak]

35. When you say SNOBama

You are quoting the right-wing source that YOU posted yesterday....the one from the National Review. You got your ass handed to you on that thread for posting such right-wing nonsense, didn't you?

So now....sans National Review, you are using a word that a RIGHT-WING writer used to describe Obama elsewhere on DU. It was not appreciated when it was attached to a right-wing article, and it is not appreciated out of the context of your right-wing source, either.

Here is a link you your RW propaganada thread...so other DUers know exactly what I am talking about.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5475991&mesg_id=5475991

And as I said to you on that thread before....go fuck yourself.

[oasis]

49. Obama's colossal snobbery was sure to come bursting through at some point in his campaign. (eom)

[Joe the Revelator]

7. So after all the bad press, and at the low point of what his numbers will be from this "scandal"....

Hillary still can't lead by a large enough margin to dent Obama's lead.

Awesome.

[catgirl]

8. You should correct your title (wrong polling co)

ARG is very inconsistent.

[mckeown1128]

10. Change your title... it is not a Rasmussen poll. nt

[JasonHill]

14. Shame

Hopefully expectations will lower sufficiently to where he will be able to rebound and post a close showing which will keep his position of clearing out virtually all the remaining states. 10 days left, and he was able to rebound against the "wrightgate", so i think it's time for his camp to step up the rhetoric even more.

[malik flavors]

15. This poll was taken over the weekend. His numbers will go back up. This lowers expectations too.

[AllentownJake]

16. Good

I hope the polling shows him down by 30.

Better when the real poll comes out April 22.

[MethuenProgressive]

17. The peasants are responding to Lord Obama's "Let them eat cake" macaca moment.

The Emperor has no clothes.

[bowens43]

18. An anomaly , big deal.

[sniffa]

19. That's about right. HRC is going to win by 20

Anything less will be devastating to her campaign.

[catgirl]

20. Remember- they had them tied at 45% a while back...

when everyone else had Clinton ahead by ten. ARG is not a very
good pollster to rely on.

[jsamuel]

24. actually they had them tied at 45 last week, when everyone else had Clinton +5 or +3

[bluestateguy]

21. I've never even heard of these guys.

Who are they?

Please. They should try to cover it up a little better next time when they fake their numbers.

[Kber]

31. I think they use a different polling method

based on automated calls and recording the push button response. (i.e. push "1" if you plan on voting for Hillary Clinton).

I don't think they "make up" numbers, but they seem to have a harder time controlling for variables. It almost seems like they have more in common with internet based polls in which the pollees self select.

But I'm sure a DU expert here can shed more light.

[2rth2pwr]

46. LOL! Because you haven't heard of them they don't count?

They have been polling since 1985.

[DefenseLawyer]

47. I found an interesting bit of research on ARG

http://ajacksonian.blogspot.com/2007/12/problem-with-american-research-group.html
Of course like everything else on the internets, take it for what it's worth.

[Barack_America]

22. This is EXCELLENT!

It's going to get us so many volunteers this weekend!

:woohoo: GOBAMA!!

[jordi_fanclub]

25. About this Survey...

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Democratic primary voters living in Pennsylvania (600 Democrats).
Yeah... and probably all land lines.

Sample Dates: April 11-13, 2007
Nice... week-end polls have always one and only one "favorite".

Question Wording: If the 2008 Democratic presidential preference primary were being held today between (names rotated) Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, for whom would you vote - Clinton, Obama, or someone else?
Interesting... "names rotate" except at the end of the question!

Added link: http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/padem8-705.html

[MadBadger]

26. You cant dismiss it. The last poll was also on a weekend too and they had it tied.

Trust me, I'm looking for a way to discount it and I havent found it yet.

[MattNC]

32. not dismissing

but a "bitter" comment over the weekend doesn't explain a twenty point swing in one week. Two points: 600 voters is a smaller sample size, and there appears to be something wrong with their methodology given that their poll was a bit of an outlier last week as well.

[catgirl]

37. And they were way off all the other pollsters

ARG sucks.

[writes3000]

29. Cute but obvious trick. Let's see if other polls show the same thing.

I bet we won't see 20 point spreads in them.

[catgirl]

40. Exactly (nt)

[GoldieAZ49]

27. more than poll numbers at that site

10% of all likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 24% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.


No candidate can win if they lose 24% of the party's base.

[Buzz Clik]

28. There you go. Hillary will win PA by 20 points. Cut and dried.

[BigDDem]

30. Ouch, that's gotta be a bitter pill

looks like another "DONT LOOK AT THE POLLS THIS WEEK!" week.

:rofl:

[1776Forever]

33. Average of all Polls / RCP Average 03/28 - 04/13 - 48.0 41.8 Obama +6.2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html

Democratic Presidential Nomination

Polling Data
Poll Date Sample Obama Clinton Spread
RCP Average 03/28 - 04/13 - 48.0 41.8 Obama +6.2

And Pennsylvania:

RCP Average 03/27 - 04/10 - 48.7 41.4 Clinton +7.3

:applause: :applause: :applause:

[Clintonista2]

34. umm your rcp average for penn. is from march 27'th until april 10'th

Which means that it doesn't reflect blowback from bittergate.

[Aloha Spirit]

36. ARG = pick numbers out of a hat.

There's a reason for the asterisk next to the name at RCP.

[Symarip]

38. I dig this

Keep those expectations low.

Down, Down, Down. Red Knight's going down.

[anonymous171]

39. Yes. Now he can blame the bitter comment and not lack of appeal to working class voters.

Thanks Hillary!

[stillcool]

44. who is 'he'?

aren't these poll numbers the same..as they have been for weeks?

[anonymous171]

45. Yep. But now they can't say "Obama has a lack of appeal."

It will be "He lost because Hillary was hammering him constantly on wedge issues she can't use in the fall."

[KingFlorez]

42. K&R

[ProSense]

43. Want to see a picture of a nose dive:

ARG included in average.

[Lucinda]

48. Thanks!

Good to see!

[BooScout]

50. Looks like Obama's got a bitter pill to swallow.

:bounce: