The Electability Issue. Part One Of Why Clinton Loses This Argument.

gcomeau

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Mon Apr-14-08 04:29 PM
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The Electability Issue. Part One Of Why Clinton Loses This Argument.

Earlier today I saw a Clinton supporter making that electability argument. Again. They were citing the latest Rasmussen poll numbers from yesterday trying to give the impression that Obama was in a free fall and unelectable and oh gosh we need to all jump over and support Clinton the electable candidate to save ourselves. It's getting tiring.

So, here's part one in a continuing series of why this is all ridiculous. This episode will look at the most ridiculous choice this person made of which numbers to focus on in their post, the favorability to unfavorability ratings.

First, the relevent section of the post which inspired this:

Favorability

4/10: 52 fav, 45 unfav
4/11: 51 fav, 47 unfav
4/12: 51 fav, 48 unfav
4/13: 48 fav, 50 unfav

Obama goes from +7 to -2.

Most significantly his biggest losses come on the last day, when the greatest number of people thus far knew about his remarks.

"Oh no! the sky is falling!" Or at least this is obviously the conclusion which we are supposed to leap to. Unfortunately for those making this argument, reality intrudes. First, there are today's Rasmussen numbers in this category:

4/14: 48 fav, 50 unfav.

Oh look, they levelled off already. But that's not what makes this particular line of argument so completely outrageous. No... it's this, the rest of the favorable and unfavorable ratings form that same poll over the last couple months which I took the liberty of graphing out:

Clinton is never polling more favorable than Obama. Ever.

And Clinton is never polling less unfavorable than Obama. Ever. They've been equal on two days out of 63... one of those days immediately after Wright broke and the other 3 weeks before that, and that's the best Clinton has done against him. And it's pretty close to the best she can hope for here before this issue blows over as well. If she's really lucky she'll take him by a point or two... for a day or two... all still within the MoE.

Hey, there's a recipe for the most electable candidate, the one the fewest people like and the most people dislike, in every sample, every day, for months. Whose unfavorability levels never drop below 50% for more than 24 or 48 hour periods based on voters perceptions of them that are grounded in years of experience and familiarity and not very subject to any kind of significant change any more.

We're supposed to panic, because on one of Obama's worst polling days, he just got all the way down to performing right where Clinton does on her best polling days... and the response we should have to address this great cause for panic is to jump down to Clinton's numbers to 'save' ourselves.

The question here is, how stupid are we expected to be to go along with this? We're in the bottom of the expected dip that immediately follows one of these little manufactured controversies, it's in blow-over stage right now and soon we'll see the effects wear off the exact same way they did after Wright... and even now, at one of the single sample points which, if snipped out of the long term trends and completely isolated is the absolute most favorable to Clinton possible... it still shows Obama out-performing her. If we're supposed to look at this and believe he's unelectable, what does that say about her?

Part Two coming soon.