Are We Back To Expecting Hillary To Win PA By 20 Points?

[KittyWampus]

just wondering if expectations have been raised for the Clintons.

[loveangelc]

1. Yes.

[stellanoir]

2. Tough to tell until after the debate.

[monmouth]

3. Hahahaha.....oh gee, I just needed to have that laugh. Many thanks....n/t

[MadBadger]

4. No, because the Q-Poll will not show her with a 20 point lead. That is the poll that MSM will use.

[babylonsister]

5. What timing; I just found this-WSJ: Does Clinton Really Have A 20-Point PA Lead?

http://blogs.wsj.com/numbersguy/is-clintons-pennsylvania-lead-really-20-points-319/

WSJ: Does Clinton Really Have A 20-Point PA Lead?

Is Clinton’s Pennsylvania Lead Really 20 Points?

A new survey showing Sen. Hillary Clinton leading Sen. Barack Obama by 20 percentage points in Pennsylvania comes from a polling firm with a shaky track record this election season.

The poll, which topped the Drudge Report on Monday afternoon (”shock poll”), was issued by American Research Group Inc. (ARG). In the poll, conducted on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, 57% of likely Democratic voters said they were supporting Sen. Clinton, compared with 37% for Sen. Obama. Just last week, each candidate received 45% in an ARG poll in the state. Other recent polls generally show a much smaller Clinton lead.

But there are reasons to question ARG polling numbers. In a polling report card of 2008 primary accuracy issued by a rival survey company, ARG ranked in the bottom half of more than three dozen polling firms, among 2008 primaries through late February. It also ranked near the bottom in another ranking of pollster accuracy at fivethirtyeight.com, a Web site that tracks the Electoral College. And, as I wrote last month, the widely tracked polling averages at the political Web site Real Clear Politics don’t include ARG numbers, because of concerns about transparency. Like they’ve been in Pennsylvania, ARG polls also were volatile in previous primaries, notably in Wisconsin, which saw a 16-point swing in just two days.

snip//

Both pollsters agreed that Sen. Obama hasn’t been hurt much by his remarks about small-town Pennsylvania voters last week. Mr. Bennett said few respondents mentioned them. Mr. Richards said, “My hunch is {the remarks} won’t make much of a difference because most voters who might feel insulted by his comments were already Clinton voters or republicans who weren’t going to vote for him, anyway.”

[Tarheel_Dem]

18. babylonsis...there you go again. You are always johnny on the spot.

Wish I could recommend your post.:hi:

[Cha]

20. Thanks, babylonsis..I recommend your

post too:) Any little crumb to show that intelligence will prevail is mucho appreciated.

[MercutioATC]

6. I'm sticking with my Clinton by 9 prediction from a couple of weeks ago.

...and Obama by 13 in NC.

Clinton +3 in IN.

[butterfly77]

7. If the media has their way..

[tokenlib]

8. Absolutely....

They believe Obama will collapse. This is their last chance to do real damage and they're going all out. I think Hillary might go into wicked mode Wednesday night to move in for the perceived kill.. Maybe not 20pts, but for sure double digits will be expected by the weekend.

The only question now is the debate. Which Hillary will show up?

[Pirate Smile]

9. Yes but she needs to win by 28 points - a Virginia size blow-out.

Obama actually beat her by 28% in Virginia.

[Hawkeye-X]

10. If Hillary wins by 20%, then it's status quo

but if Hillary wins by less than 18%, time for Hillary to step aside and endorse Obama.

Hawkeye-X

[LSparkle]

11. Nope ... far from it. I predict by less than 10 points.

[Symarip]

12. She's going to win by 30 points

(I like keeping expectations low)

[Mezzo]

13. No way. Obama's bundlers have outspent her three to one, and I expect him to win. Handily.

by a three to one margin, or he's really being irresponsible with his campaign contributions.

[my3boyz]

14. I say 30 pts!!! Let's keep the number high! LOL nt

[book_worm]

15. PA was always her's to lose. However if she wins by 20 the pundits will call it what it would be

a big victory and while it won't stop Obama's lead in pledged delegates it will stall any momentum and could affect upcoming races if it's spinned as a huge win by the media. I don't think she will win that large of a victory, however.

[Window]

16. I doubt if she'll win by that wide a margin, although I like the fact that their expectations

are so high since 'bittergate.' That will make Sen. Obama look even better if she doesn't pull that 20% lead off.

[Innocent Smith]

17. I don't have a clue

I am flabbergasted at how people act sometimes.

A 1% margin or 30% margin would not surprise me.

[oasis]

19. There's no telling how big in the wake of "bittergate". But at least 20.(eom)