Let's face it folks, This thing is going to go at least to the end of primary season in June.

[book_worm]

I hate to say it only because we as a party are getting further divided and I think it will be hard to bring it together if it actually goes all the way to the convention. But I don't see Hillary withdrawing. Why? because Hillary and Obama are probably going to split the last ten contests:

Hillary is leading in Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico.

Obama is leading in North Carolina, Oregon and if he continues to perform as he has in the west and plains he should also win Montana and South Dakota. I think he will win Guam as well.

So the last primaries are June 3rd in South Dakota and Montana. Having said that the super delegates will have to begin to make a decision on who to support. I think this is where Obama will still have an upper hand.

1) If they split 5/5 Obama will have won a total of 35 contests to Hillary's 19.
2) If they split 5/5 Obama will still no doubt have a lead in total pledged delegates
3) If they split 5/5 Obama will still be leading in the popular vote.

So the Supers will begin to make their decisions based on all of this. I still don't see them reversing the decision of Democratic voters. If Obama is still leading in all of those areas I think they will break for him. If Hillary somehow manages to get ahead in one of those areas such as popular vote then this thing will go all the way to the convention.

Of course if Obama pulls out victories in both Indiana and North Carolina on May 6--the pressure on her to withdraw will be strong. But if they split it as seems likely as of today then we go on!

[niyad]

1. you know, all of the screaming going on about how it has to be decided RIGHT NOW reminds me of nov

2000. the screaming that was going on about how the election had "dragged on long enough" we needed a decision RIGHT NOW.

the instant gratification society cannot wait for anything.

[aquarius dawning]

2. I don't think he'll do as well in S dakota as he did in N. Dakota. S. Dakota isn't a caucus state.

and it is very very Red. Same thing with Montana. He does well in western red states with caucus elections but he consistently loses primaries and there won't be large AA populations to offset that in either SD or MT. Montana is also very very Red incidentally which probably doesn't bode well for Obama. Oregon, unlike Washinton, is also a Primary election state so, again, he will have to fight Hillary's fight in there and, again, AA's are about 1.9% of the Oregonian population which means he won't have their disproportionate support to offset his weaknesses as opposed to NC, for instance, where AAs represent ~22% of the population. I'll give him Nebraska because it's a caucus state and N Carolina because of the AA support and Hawai because of the home state thing and because it's a caucus state. I think it would be premature to just assume that he will win anything else.

[book_worm]

3. Oh, I think he will do well in SD anyway

he also has Johnson, Daschle and the states lone congresswoman behind him and has long organized it. My guess is he will win it if I had to make a prediction today.

[aquarius dawning]

5. He had John Kerry and Ted Kennedy in Massachusets too and he lost big time.

Like I said, I wouldn't assume he'll win anything except Nebraska, Hawai, and North Carolina. I would put my money on him in those 3 states but, in the rest of the contests, I think I'd probably have to wait for a while before I put any money on anything.

[PetrusMonsFormicarum]

4. It's about time

Oregon's primary vote was worth a damn!