Clinton beats McSame in Florida, Obama loses by 15. Obama hurt by killing revote in FL? FL has 27 EV

[jackson_dem]

Florida has 27 electoral votes, 4th most behind only California, Texas, and New York. The fifth largest prizes, Pennsylvania and Illinois, have six less electoral votes. To put that into context 6 electoral votes is what Kansas, Arkansas, and Mississippi have.

-snip-

The battle over Florida’s convention delegates may be taking its toll on Barack Obama’s prospects in the Sunshine State. For the second time in three months, John McCain enjoys a double digit lead over the Democratic frontrunner.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Florida shows McCain attracting 53% of the vote while Obama earns 38%. Last month, amidst talk of a possible Florida revote, Obama had closed to within single digits of McCain. In February, however, Obama trailed McCain by sixteen points.

If McCain is matched against Hillary Clinton, the race is a toss-up—Clinton 45% McCain 44%.

McCain is viewed favorably by 62% of the state’s voters, Clinton by 49%, and Obama by 42%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/florida/election_2008_florida_presidential_election

Rcp average for Florida shows Clinton competitive, Obama a joke

Clinton does 12 points better in the rcp average in Florida than Obama (-0.3% versus -12%). Clinton has led in the last two Florida polls (this one and one taken in the third week of March) while Obama has never led in Florida.

Obama vs. McSame

RCP Average 03/15 - 04/10 - 49.7 38.0 9.7 McCain +11.7

Rasmussen 04/10 - 04/10 500 LV 53 38 9 McCain +15.0
Quinnipiac 03/24 - 03/31 1136 RV 46 37 9 McCain +9.0
PPP (D) 03/15 - 03/16 618 LV 50 39 11 McCain +11.0
Rasmussen 03/12 - 03/12 500 LV 47 43 10 McCain +4.0
SurveyUSA 02/26 - 02/28 632 RV 47 45 8 McCain +2.0
Mason-Dixon 02/21 - 02/24 625 RV 47 37 16 McCain +10.0
Rasmussen 02/16 - 02/16 500 LV 53 37 10 McCain +16.0
Quinnipiac 02/06 - 02/12 1009 LV 41 39 12 McCain +2.0
St. Petersburg Times 11/04 - 11/07 800 RV 47 45 9 McCain +2.0
Quinnipiac 10/17 - 10/22 1025 RV 42 42 9 Tie
Quinnipiac 10/01 - 10/08 869 RV 41 39 11 McCain +2.0
Quinnipiac 09/03 - 09/09 1141 RV 42 39 11 McCain +3.0

[tridim]

1. Fuck Florida.

[virtualobserver]

20. Florida is too busy fucking itself

[cliffordu]

41. Yep. Obama had NOTHING to do with the Fla. Mess except keep his

word. Unlike the Hillary crew....

[anonymous171]

2. OBAMA NEVER CAMPAIGNED IN FL! THEREFORE THIS IS STUPID

[jackson_dem]

5. Neither did Clinton (although Obama did run ads in FL). Why is Obama TWELVE points worse than her?

The opposite should be the case since he is the "new" blank slate in a change year. He could be down 20+ in Florida by the convention if we nominate him. Let's face it, Obama has no shot in Florida.

[anonymous171]

9. Name recognition and familiarity ONLY.

[jackson_dem]

11. Obama had 97% name recognition in January of 2008. Clinton was at 99%.

2% explains 12%? Obama must be at 98-99% now anyway. Obama is just a joke of a candidate in Florida. Look at the crosstabs of the polls. In the last one that made crosstabs available to the public for free he was getting 27% white support...

[anonymous171]

17. Familiarity? They are two different things. They may know his name, but not anything else.

That's what on-site campaigning helps to solve.

[jackson_dem]

29. That is an asset for him...

[DesEtoiles]

3. looks like Hillary shot the party in the foot

[virtualobserver]

4. absolutely, she will be to blame for creating this bullshit issue

but it won't matter, Obama will win the election

[GoldieAZ49]

56. HuffPo released it and then the MSM

If Hillary was all powerful do you think she would have ended this on Super Tuesday?

[jackson_dem]

6. We will have shot ourselves in the foot if we nominate Obama

[virtualobserver]

16. hillary is the gunslinger, or so she claims..........

[PBS Poll-435]

7. That is pretty startling...

[MadBadger]

8. Did you see the poll today that had Obama beating McCain in Michigan and Hillary losing by 9?

[jackson_dem]

10. Yes. Unfortunately for us if O wins FL has 10 more electoral votes than Michigan

[MadBadger]

12. But Ive made this argument to you before. Obama's path to victory is not through Florida.

[Hawkeye-X]

15. And I know he doesn't listen - he's one track mind..

(Zombie) HILLARY........HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................
HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................
HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................
HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................
HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................
HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................
HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................HILLARY................

etc.

[dchill]

68. At this point, it's not even about HILLARY....

It's about being right. It's about jackson_dem being "right" - you know, "right?" Check out his post #11:

"Obama is just a joke of a candidate in Florida. Look at the crosstabs of the polls. In the last one that made crosstabs available to the public for free he was getting 27% white support..."

[woolldog]

18. Everyone knows that, it seems, except for the OP.

[jackson_dem]

24. And you know my response

His path is less likely to work than Clinton's. Frankly I think Obama's poll numbers now are significantly higher than they will be after the rethugs go after him. I could see him down in Florida by 20 by the convention. The "new" candidate is usually much higher at this time than he is after the other party attacks him (Bush was up 11, Kerry up 8, Carter was up 35 at one point in 1976, Dukakis led by 17 as late as the convention). Bush and Dukakis are interesting because they desire for change was not nearly as great then as it is now. Kerry was an odd case. There was intense desire for change about about half the country while the other half wanted to continue the status quo. Obama, given how big of a change year this is, should be trouncing McSame right now.

[virtualobserver]

14. The state polls are meaningless until the final month of the general election

this strategic state by state nonsense is a waste of time at this point in the campaign

[jackson_dem]

25. No. They give us an indication of basic strength, where they start from

You and Obama supporters may want to ignore this but superdelegates definitely will not.

[virtualobserver]

31. even Rendell is cautiously backing away from her assertions

she doesn't have a prayer

[jackson_dem]

34. Which one? I just saw Rendell in a Clinton ad five minutes ago

[virtualobserver]

39. bittergate.........rendell undercut her new ad

"I think it will cost a couple of points at the margin,” , “but it’s not a sea change.”

“By the time November rolls around, I think this comment will be long forgotten,” he said

[jackson_dem]

45. He's probably right about the primary. It isn't a sea change

The thing is if it costs him even 5 points his deficit goes into double digits...

[virtualobserver]

46. we shall see, but it is a bad sign that Rendell is undercutting her message

[jackson_dem]

51. Rendell is governor of the state in question, not a campaign operative

[virtualobserver]

54. even worse......

[jackson_dem]

Rendell has always been a straight shooter

[islandmkl]

13. well f***...let's just have ONE ELECTION down here in FLORIDA...

and we'll see who wins it and make them President...

that ought to make up for the Florida dems screwing themselves (by accommodating the republican majority)....

and I am only too aware of all that was at stake when the primary date got shoved down the dems throats (paper trail ballots most importantly...remember 2000?)...

but these sunshine a-holes thought 'Florida is too damn big for the party to actually enforce its rules on' and away they went...

It ain't gonna be about Florida this time, not for Hillary, not for that war-monger-hero (whichever order is proper) who is more like her and too goddam much like jr.....

it's going to be about people deciding if they want more of the same or, at the least, invest trust in someone to ATTEMPT to get us back on track...

and we have been knocked off that track by the Bushes AND the Clintons since 1988...

find some solutions to our problems by electing and keeping in power THE VERY PEOPLE WHO GOT US HERE??

anyone who thinks Barack's 'bitter' comment isn't the truth is part of that 19% or whatever dismal number of people think everything is just fine in this nation...

and anyone who thinks the truth is 'bad' and 'elitist' are the very kind of people who want more of the past 20, let alone 8, years of the same road for America...

and I will ask, "How is that working out for you? How is that working out for our country?"

Forget BITTER, you better start paying attention to WORRIED and SCARED...

[dchill]

19. "Obama hurt by killing revote in FL?"

No, hurt by lies to that effect purveyed by Clinton and her supporters - maybe. Florida and Michigan killed their own primaries AND revotes, as you should well know.

"Obama has never led in Florida." That will happen when he is the nominee.

[CreekDog]

21. this was posted in the morning

why don't you just post Hillary's speeches...maybe because they are less effective that ignoring her and running down Obama.

see you in November and thanks for helping us win. :eyes:

[jackson_dem]

23. Thanks. I helped recruit four volunteers for the gubernatorial race here

I am glad you appreciate my efforts on behalf of the Democratic Party. :hug:

[CreekDog]

27. your past efforts, your future efforts suck

with all *due* respect.

[jackson_dem]

28. What did you do for the party today?

[CreekDog]

30. i worked and i can't politic at work

but i'll give tonight.

[jackson_dem]

32. What have you done in the past month? Year?

[CreekDog]

38. i haven't run down either nominees on a daily basis as much as you have

sometimes less is more.

i have worked and/or donated regularly in every campaign since 1992.

i just voted for Jackie Speier, one of my proudest votes...i think she would make a good president.

i liked Bill Clinton since i saw him on CSPAN while in high school in the late 80's when he was head of the Nat'l Governor's Association.

[jackson_dem]

42. So you did less than me. Maybe you should do more instead of lecturing others on what they should do

[CreekDog]

47. you're too stupid and you do nothing here except run Obama down with Republican talking points

yeah, I do less of that than you, but yours is a dubious honor.

however, the Republicans appreciate your help, and it really is helping them, I don't care what else you've done, this latest crap is helping THEM.

[jackson_dem]

50. The internet doesn't matter. The real world counts

Maybe you should realize that and do something to help the party instead of instructing others what to do through a computer.

Get real. How out of touch are Obamites? NO ONE at DU is going to vote for McSame in November. What happens here does no harm to whoever our nominee is.

[Ka hrnt]

22. I wasn't on DU much in '00 & '04....

...or just wasn't paying attention, but there's something that strikes me odd about some (probably a very small percent or even fraction of a percent) of the Obama supporters here. That is this "He WILL/IS GOING to win" attitude. Was this irrational "Oh, he can't possibly lose" attitude towards Kerry and Gore as well? And if so, what did the polls show then (i.e., a few months before the GE)? I mean, all evidence points to this being another relatively close race, but there are some people--Clinton and Obama supporters--saying their candidate can't lose... :shrug:

Edit: Corrected years in subject. D'oh!

[jackson_dem]

26. Gore was down by about 11 at this time in 2000 and Kerry was up until the rethugs went after him

At about this time the rethugs began running ads against Kerry and he started to drop. Gore was actually losing because Bush was the "new" candidate of "change" that year. Only after the party went after him did Gore take back the lead.

[Orangepeel]

40. DU opened for business the dark day of Bush's inauguration...

so Gore's election was pre-DU. My memory is that people thought that it would be close, but that Kerry would win. Many people still think that he would have won Ohio if the vote had been fair.

But, I agree with you, Ka. It's not going to be a landslide. I believe that Obama has a better chance, but it won't be easy.

[mckeown1128]

33. Hillary loses in MI. Hurt by trying to steal PD's from undemocratic primaries.

Obama 42 McCain 37
McCain 45 Clinton 37

FOX 2 Political Analyst Tim Skubick has more.
New polling data from EPIC-MRA suggests Barack Obama would win in Michigan, including Detroit and the outstate region, but Hillary Clinton would lose to John McCain if she received the nomination.

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/myfox/pages/News/Politics/D...

Obviously the voters of MI are upset that Hillary is trying to seat delegates from a primary that she herself told them "wouldn't count for anything." It seems voters like to know what there votes will go for "before they go into the booth" (You know... delgates or straw poll) I guess they don't like Hillary telling them who they want for president.

[jackson_dem]

36. She was hurt by asking for a revote so MI can count? That makes no sense

[mckeown1128]

44. It's too late for MI to have a revote...

Many dems switched to vote in the Republican Primary since they new the dem primary was worthless. Do they get to vote in the Dem primary in a re-vote? Or do they get disenfranchised. By the way the Obama campaign has no control over whether the MI legislature votes to redo their primary. So, don't try to pin it on him. He had nothing to do with their decisions.

MI f$cked up their primary this year. It looks like they will have to and are choosing to wait until 2012.

[Orangepeel]

35. eh. I don't think either can win Florida. But O might win without FL. C can't.

If we need to depend on Florida to win, we're fucked anyway.

[jackson_dem]

37. Why not? Polls consistently show Clinton competitive in FL

How does Obama win without Florida and Ohio (assuming he holds onto Pennsylvania post-smalltowngate...)? He can but it is unlikely.

[PseudoIntellect]

43. That settles it. Step down, Obama; you can't win Florida.

And that's the only state that matters. :sarcasm:

Could easily arbitrarily pick out a big state Obama polls better in and say he should be the nominee.

[Archnemesis]

48. It's too early for polls

Things can change dramatically in 7 months. We have seen it in the past. Let's learn our lessons.

[Justice Is Comin]

49. OOOO boy did you hit a nerve there.

Good for you.

Not only that, but if the primaries were winner take all like the repukes primaries are, we wouldn't even be talking about string bean now. He would be history already.

String bean fanatics love a mirage. Wait til they get to it. Ooops, sorry just dust.

[stevietheman]

52. Please stop the attacks on our nominee Barack Obama. n/t

n/t

[jackson_dem]

53. Facts are an attack? So Obama attacks himself by doing so poorly in the most crucial swing state?

[stevietheman]

55. Please stop the attacks on our nominee Barack Obama. n/t

n/t

[GoldieAZ49]

58. We don't have a nominee yet nt

[jackson_dem]

60. When did Obama reach 2,024 delegates?

[mckeown1128]

57. Your post wasn't completely factual...

you see you started with a fact...a poll... ok that was alright. But then you veered into nutty Clintonian logic. You opined that it was because Obama was killing a re-vote. Now that couldn't possibly be true... because Obama didn't kill a re-vote. There is ZERO evidence that Obama did anything to prevent the FL legislature from approving a re-vote. That is something that you the few Hillary zealots who run around posting the same false talking points have made up. Now... I don't' know if you know you are making "facts" or if you truly believe them because you read that crap on Taylor Marsh's website. I don't presume to know. But, I do have to point out that you did indeed make that shit the hell up.

[jackson_dem]

59. No, that is what Rasmussen said in the OP

As to the re-vote, it is obvious who killed them behind the scenes and it is especially obvious in Michigan. Only Obama had an incentive to kill re-votes...

[mckeown1128]

61. Quoting Rasmussen doesn't mean it's true...

In that case... I will correct what I said. It isn't nutty Clintonian logic. It is nutty neo-conian logic. That is the stuff you should try to avoid.

[jackson_dem]

62. Cui bono?

[mckeown1128]

63. I'm sorry I don't know what "Cui bono?" means... you will

have to translate.

[jackson_dem]

64. Who benefits? Who benefitted from killing re-votes in FL and MI?

[mckeown1128]

66. Both benefit.

Hillary benefits from killing the vote in MI. (polling shows they are tied in MI) She would rather try to "credentials committee" the illegitimate vote results of MI. The results of the undemocratic MI election are that HIllary would get 57% of the delegates and then she and Obama would "compete" and likely split the "uncommitted" delegates. This would leave Hillary with 78% of the delegates and Obama with 22%. Of course with opinion polling having them tied... this is hardly the will of the voters.

Obama of course doesn't want a FL re-vote. Hillary would likely win a slightly smaller percentage (Obama's numbers go up when he actively campaigns in a state) But for the most part the numbers are predicted to be similar. The only reason that Obama wouldn't want a re-vote in FL is for momentum/press reasons. A FL win now might give Hillary some momentum.

This being said... there has been zero evidence that Obama has blocked a re-vote of either of these states... It is just a talking point that Hillary's campaign has made up. They think if they say it... then their supporters will believe it. (Mission Accomplished)

[datopbanana]

65. isn't clinton a blessing to the dem party? She has now smeared our nominee for prez in FL and PA

oh and OH

[Dyllyn]

67. If Hillary was a State it would be Florida

Breaking and changing the rules to suit itself .

Thinks it has a God given right to decide who is President.

In the end keeps letting the Dem party down

Please think of more folks !!