Last States Primary Predictions Thread

[tekisui]

With 10 Primaries to go, and a week until PA votes, how about a prediction thread? Just for fun.

4/22 - Pennsylvania (158)
5/3 - Guam (4)
5/6 - Indiana (72)
5/6 - North Carolina (115)
5/13 - West Virginia (28)
5/20 - Kentucky (51)
5/20 - Oregon (52)
6/1 - Puerto Rico (55)
6/3 - Montana (16)
6/3 - South Dakota (15)
Superdelegates (332)*

My Predictions based on poll trends, my gut and my brain:

PA-Hillary by 5-8%(Hillary gains 12-17 PD's)
Guam-Split the delegates(2-2)
IN-Hillary by <5%
NC-Obama by 20---This will inflicted the most damage in Delegate count and Perception to Hillary, it will erase any gains from PA&IN
WV-Hillary
KY-?
OR-Obama by 10-15%
PR-HIllary by 10%
MT-Obama by 15+%
SD-Obama by 15+%

SuperD's-Obama will need only 35% of the remaining SuperD's to reach 2025.
Hillary would need 75-77% to reach 2025.

What do you say?

[davidpdx]

1. Here are my predictions

The gain in () is how many more delegates then their opponent

PA-Hillary by 10% (she gains 16 delegates)
Guam-Split the delegates (even)
IN-Hillary by 8% (she gains 6 delegates)
NC-Obama by 20% (he gains 23 delegates
WV-Hillary by 20% (she gains 6 delegates)
KY-Hillary by 20% (she gains 11 delegates)
OR-Obama by 12% (he gains 6 delegates)
PR-Obama by 5% (he gains 5 delegates)
MT-Obama by 16% (he gains 2 delegates)
SD-Obama by 16% (he gains 3 delegates)

Differences:
Clinton +39 (PA, IN, WV, KY) Obama +39 (NC, OR, PR, MT, SD)

Totals:
Clinton: 283
Obama: 283

There will be no change in the delegate count.

Edit: Revised because of an error in the Oregon and KY delegates

If no superdelegates from either side pledged between now and then the totals (including SD) would be:

Obama 1924
Clinton 1788

Obama would need 101 SD or 32% of the remaining SD at this point.
Clinton would need 237 SD or 75% of the remaining SD at this point.

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

3. Iow, all this for nothing.

[TheDoorbellRang]

7. I predict a 50/50 split, too

PA 47-53% O = 75; C = 83
GU 55-44% O = 2; C = 2
IN 53-46% O = 39; C = 33
NC 53-45% O = 61; C = 54
WV 43-55% O = 13; C = 15
KY 42-56% O = 23; C = 28
OR 52-47% O = 28; C = 24
MT 55-44% O = 9; C = 7
SD 57-42% O = 8; C = 7
PR 45-54% O = 25; C = 30

Total: Obama and Clinton each gain 283 pledged delegates of the remaining 566.

BTW, the predictions I used are from the Obama delegate spreadsheet that they "accidentally" released shortly after February 5th. They've accurately called every race except Maine since then. They didn't think they'd win that one.

Here's the rest of my prediction based on the spreadsheet.

[rug]

2. 6 of 10 for Clinton.

PA, IN, WV, KY, PR, GU, maybe OR.

[tekisui]

4. Guam will have to be a 65+% win to not split the 4 delegates.

I don't see OR going to Clinton. Obama has done very well in the Western states.

[quakerboy]

5. No chance on that Oregon thing

We like her just as much as Washington did. Sorry. Our cities prefer Obama and our countryside prefers "not Clinton"

[hogwyld]

6. No way, no how is Hillary taking Oregon

Barack's going to take everything west of the Cascade's, where the majority of the delegates are. Hillary MIGHT take a couple of the more rural areas to the east.