Bitter-gate (or desperation-gate) flops: Hillary still can't win

[ProSense]

Bitter-gate flops:

New Quinnipiac PA Poll Numbers

April 15, 2008 7:48 AM

Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., maintains a 50 - 44 percent lead over Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., among likely primary voters, reports a Quinnipiac University poll released just now.

Those numbers are unchanged from April 8 numbers, though the poll was taken over the weekend -- after news broke of Obama's controversial remarks on "bitter" small-town Pennsylvanians clinging to guns, God, and xenophobia.

Twenty-six percent of Clinton supporters say that would vote for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., should Obama win the nomination, while 19% of Obama supporters say they would go GOP should Clinton win.

Other numbers:

White voters for Clinton 57 - 37 percent;

Women voters for Clinton 54 -40;

Voter over 45 for Clinton 55 - 40;

Black voters for Obama 86 - 8 percent;

Men voters for Obama 51 - 43 percent;

Voters under 45 for Obama 55 - 39.

Says Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute: "Sen. Hillary Clinton is fighting off Sen. Barack Obama's drive to make it a close race in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, holding the six-point edge she had a week ago. She seems to have halted the erosion of whites and white women in particular from her campaign. She even gained back some ground in the Philadelphia suburbs - the area where elections are won and lost in the Keystone State. She now trails Obama by just two points in this critical area, while she was 11 points behind a week ago."

SurveyUSA: Clinton Ahead By 14 Points In Pennsylvania

By Eric Kleefeld - April 15, 2008, 9:42AM
The new SurveyUSA poll of Pennsylvania shows Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama by 14 points, not significantly different from last week:

Clinton 54% (-2)
Obama 40% (+2)

The poll was conducted Saturday through Monday, in the heat of Obama's "small town" flap -- a sign that the whole business might not really be hurting him all that much, at least for now.

Hillary's hope that smearing Obama would lead to her winning big in PA fades:

Clinton Rates Slim Edge Over Obama in PA District Delegate Race

By Greg Giroux and Jonathan Allen, CQ Staff

Is Barack Obama trailing Hillary Rodham Clinton in Pennsylvania by double digit percentages? Or has he closed the gap to single digits, as recent polls suggest? Could he even win the April 22 primary — a shocking upset that probably would force Clinton to the sidelines? These are among the questions that have the hearts of the punditocracy atwitter in the run-up to the first Democratic presidential balloting in six weeks.

We at CQ Politics are pondering those too. But we look ahead to next week’s vote in Pennsylvania a bit differently: How many delegates might each candidate win in Pennsylvania, which is the most populous of the states and territories that have yet to vote?

That answer will be mainly determined not by the sum of the votes Clinton and Obama win in Pennsylvania, but rather by the state’s parts. Pennsylvania will send 187 Democratic delegates to the party’s national convention in Denver this August, and most of them — 103 to be exact — will be allocated according to the votes the candidates receive in each of the state’s 19 congressional districts.

And a CQ Politics analysis of the political circumstances in Pennsylvania’s congressional districts, detailed below, projects an edge to Clinton — but by just 53 district-level delegates to 50 for Obama under the Democratic Party’s proportional distribution rules.

These numbers suggest that Clinton, even with a victory in Pennsylvania, would make only a small incremental gain against Obama’s overall lead in the delegate race.

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CNN numbers:

Start...........................Hillary.............Obama........Hillary by
Total Delegates............ 1,489............. 1,632
PA................................60%................40%...........20 pts
IN.................................55%................45%...........10 pts
WV...............................60%................40%...........20 pts
OR................................55%................45%...........10 pts
SD................................55%................45%...........10 pts
GUAM............................60%................40%...........20 pts
NC................................55%................45%...........10 pts
KY................................65%................35%...........30 pts
MT................................55%................45%..........10 pts
PR.................................65%................35%..........30 pts
Total Delegates............ 1,822............. 1,865

After winning the ten remaining contests by the above margins, Hillary would then need approximately 62% of the remaining super delegates to reach 2,025.

Now, let's look at the scenarios with MI (Obama gets MI 55 uncommitted delegates) and FL included:

• The delegates needed to win the nomination would be 2,208.
  
  
• Obama gets a total of 122 delegates, Hillary gets a total of 178 delegates
  
  
• Current delegates totals for Obama 1,632 and for Hillary 1,489 (CNN numbers)
  
  
• Total delegates including MI and FL Obama 1,754 (+122) Hillary 1,667 (+178)

Reality check:

Based on the above scenario, Hillary would have to win the ten remaining contest by the following margins

• PA and WV by 20 pts.
  
  
• KY and PR by 30 pts.
  
  
• IN, OR, SD, NC and MT by 10 pts.

Calculator

Delegate data

[GarbagemanLB]

1. Oh dear, it looks like Hillary's fauxtrage isn't resonating with the voters...

[leftofcool]

2. These are the numbers you need to be concerned about for the GE

White voters for Clinton 57 - 37 percent;

Women voters for Clinton 54 -40;

Voter over 45 for Clinton 55 - 40;

[Hepburn]

3. She will not be the nominee of our party....so why the concern?

[GarbagemanLB]

4. Yeah, let's ignore the men for Obama, youth for Obama, and AAs for Obama. LOL

[ProSense]

5. The OP is about Hillary and the Democratic primary. Those numbers have nothing to do with the GE.

Obama will crush McCain.


Now, about Hillary's desperation...back to the OP.

[Kittycat]

7. So you agree with her republican tactics?

There's no way she can legitimately win the democratic nomination, because real democrats know she's full of shit. So instead, she's damaging him to the point that indies and republicans won't vote for him - but by painting him in a box that isn't really what he is. So essentially, she's legitimizing republican attacks, that we should be railing against, collectively - just so that she can try and steal the nomination.

[polichick]

8. Well, this white woman over 45 has never been polled...

And neither have any of the other white women over 45 who have been working the Obama campaign in PA.

Hillary should be ashamed of herself - she has put her egomaniacal ambition over the party, the country and the world. My message to Hill: Bite me!

[cliffordu]

12. Everytime anyone points out that Hillary's tactic isn't working

whenever the tactic she is using this week fails

Someone ALWAYS chimes in "Yeah, but it's the General Election you have to worry about....blah de blah...."

Wink wink.

What the GE stuff is really about is that Obama can't win cause he's black......

Why don't you JUST SAY THAT, instead of couching it this relentless coy bullshit???


:shrug:

[ampad]

14. Hear, hear

Just a bunch of cowards who will not come out and say it, just say it for Christ sakes. Just like Hillary going behind the back of the voters telling the Super D's that Obama cannot win because he is black, her supporters are full of shit like her. I wish they would just come out and say it already. I think some of them are not saying it because deep down they are probably the same ones that will not vote for him because he is black. The guily always put themeselves at the scene of the crime.

[tekisui]

19. So, Hillary's ENTIRE campaign is going to come down to notably

unreliable polls?

That's it, huh?

[ProSense]

20. Hillary is already running in the GE despite the reality that she is losing the nomination.

That's delusional.

[Submariner]

6. Clinton's supports shows more conservative DLC loyalty than DNC loyalty

26% DLC'ers vs 19% DNC'ers

Twenty-six percent of Clinton supporters say that would vote for Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., should Obama win the nomination, while 19% of Obama supporters say they would go GOP should Clinton win.

[polichick]

9. Thanks for the post - I'm traveling and wondered how it was all playing out.

[ProSense]

17. It would be great if Hillary is asked in the upcoming debate

how she plans on winning?

[thewiseguy]

10. SUSA was full of crap last week? lol

I still believe they are off. The fact that their numbers change by so much and are all over the place makes me think they are not reliable in the Pennsylvania race.

[ProSense]

11. The averages give a better idea. My guess is Hillary's lead in under 10 pts. n/t

[wowimthere]

13. Good job. Anyway you slice it, Obama has already won! Maybe you could talk about the caucus votes?

[ProSense]

15. Hillary’s “big Pennsylvania win” would be (drum roll)…

I think it will be closer to 10, but who knows!

[ProSense]

16. Why Hillary Clinton's Slash-and-Burn Politics May Hurt Her More Than Obama

Robert Creamer

Why Hillary Clinton's Slash-and-Burn Politics May Hurt Her More Than Obama

Posted April 15, 2008 | 12:20 PM (EST)

The only way for Hillary Clinton to win the Democratic nomination would be a precipitous collapse in Barack Obama's candidacy. Obama's pledged-delegate lead is virtually insurmountable. And Super Delegates seem increasingly inclined to go with the pledged-delegate winner.

Rather than respect the outcome of the primaries, the Clintons have decided to do everything they can to make Obama appear to be a risky general election choice to the remaining Super Delegates and the media. But Clinton's negative tactics may actually hurt her candidacy more than they hurt Obama's. There are three reasons:

First, a negative attack has to ring true to the people you are attempting to persuade. Initial polls seem to indicate that most of the people who are receptive to the "Obama-is-a-condescending-'elitist'-argument" already supported Hillary in the primary before the attacks began. Clinton's attacks may rally some of her troops, but the argument doesn't seem to be that persuasive to actual undecided voters.

Of course one reason may have to do with the credibility of the messenger. It's tough to attack someone else for "elitism" if you've spent the last 16 years in Washington as First Lady and Senator, and your family brought in $107 million over the last seven years. Assuming an eight-hour workday, that means that Bill and Hillary made as much every two hours as Barack Obama made each full year that he organized out-of-work steelworkers for a coalition of church groups.

more

[ProSense]

18. Back to the MI and FL argument.

Florida's vote boosts nominee's legitimacy, Clinton says


Good grief!

[ProSense]

21. This is not going to help:

Screw 'em

[ProSense]

22. Hillary is talking convention, thanks to Charlie Gibson.

WTF?

[ProSense]

23. Pennsylvania Voters Reject Clinton’s Old-Politics Attacks, Switch to Obama

Pennsylvania Voters Reject Clinton’s Old-Politics Attacks, Switch to Obama

[ProSense]

24. Hillary's top fundraisers are bitter

Top Hillary Fundraisers Rip Into Howard Dean For Saying Super-Dels Should Announce Support "Starting Now"