**********Inside the polls: interesting numbers suggest a pro-Obama shift coming in PA*********

AnarchoFreeThinker

(1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore

Tue Apr-15-08 11:48 AM
Original message

Edited on Tue Apr-15-08 11:52 AM by dmsRoar

Not only have Obama’s comments failed to hurt him, there’s potential for much more harm to come for Clinton….actual poll-moving harm. I read through the latest Quinnipiac Poll, which, in addition to its massive size (roughly twice the respondents of many of the other polls, thus a low MOE), provides clues to just how damaging Clinton’s pushing on the issue could be to her. This, for what it’s worth, is ONLY my speculation.

The pollster states, first off, that there is no discernible difference in the polling before and after Obama’s comments. The gap was roughly 6 points through it all (50-44) in Clinton’s favor. That’s bad news for Clinton in and of itself.

But the news is worse. A look inside the numbers shows her support eroding among African Americans (9% loss in a week), women (1% loss in the last week—which, granted, could be statistically insignificant), and men (4% loss in a week). She’s gained 2% with whites (which also could be statistically insignificant). If you’re wondering, college educated voters continue to prefer Obama much more than Clinton; the reverse is true for likely voters without a college degree. (No surprises here.)

Most voters in PA say the most important considerations on which they’ll base their vote are, in this order: “a strong leader,” “trustworthiness,” and “shares my values.” When we consider the semi-manufactured “bitter” story, we can see why this issue at first comes out as a wash.

Now for the potentially gruesome news for Clinton. This will come as a shock to informed members of this board, no matter who you support, because of the perception of PA voters. (This isn’t meant to say whether they’re right or wrong—I’m only talking perception.) In PA, 66% of likely primary voters think Clinton IS “trustworthy.” After all the play her comments/mistatements the last few weeks have gotten, I think this high number speaks incredibly well, actually, for her and her campaign’s ability to weather controversy.

BUT, there is something different this time. Her opponent, for the first time this week, is STRONGLY, REGULARLY, and DIRECTLY attacking her trustworthiness. He’s no longer content to draw distinctions on record and policy, to let misstatements slide, or to soft-peddle Clinton inconsistencies. To be sure, his surrogates have been doing that all along to varying degrees. But now it’s coming straight from Obama, which is important.

Why? Because 74% of PA’s likely Democratic voters (8% more than Clinton) see Obama as “trustworthy.”

In short, the Obama campaign now has its most credible speaker (in the eyes of PA voters)—-Obama himself—-delivering the daily message day after day on Clinton’s untrustworthiness. Voters view Obama as more trustworthy than Clinton in every demographic: men, women, white, black, Reagan Democrats, and union households, even if in some cases the margin is much thinner than the overall number. (These were all the demographic categories that Quinnipiac measured, by the way.)

Now, on a daily basis on the campaign trail, someone very believable (as opposed to talking heads and other politicians) is telling PA voters that someone less believable is really not so believable at all. And that strategy will not disappear as long as Clinton stays on bitterness or likely even after she moves off it. It will be hard to imagine how her trustworthiness numbers do NOT fall, because she’s drawn the most the most credible candidate (in the eyes of PA voters) into what he’s made into a battle over the truth. (As an aside: this strategy comes with costs regarding the possible reconciliation of the Party, of course. If Clinton hadn’t ended any chance for her in the VP slot long ago, Obama certainly hammered the last nail into that idea this week with “Annie Oakley” and “duckblinds” and “firing Penn.”)

There are arguments to make about who seems the stronger leader and whose values voters will identify with given the events of the past week, of course—-and in the case of Obama’s comments I’d suggest the way he’s reframed those comments and defended himself will continue to help him there, too. But I think his own stronger focus on Clinton’s trustworthiness is the absolutely key ingredient. It’s now hard to see how the 6-point gap doesn’t close further, given the importance of “trustworthiness” to the voters of PA.

ed for link: http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1327.xml?ReleaseID=1168