Rasmussen PA poll-4/14: HRC +9!!!!!!SUSA PA poll-4/14: HRC +14!!!!

[aquarius dawning]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_primary-240.html">Real Clear Politics Polls

This is especially hilarious as last week, Obama supporters were touting the high degree of accuracy of Rasmussen and explaining to us all how the trend shows Obama erasing Hillary's lead. Problem is, Obama has gone down 5 pts on the Rasmussen poll since last week. The trend is quite the opposite apparently. Hillary is going into PAstrong next week and Obama can expect to lose another key battleground state by large margins.

[SoonerPride]

1. And this erases his 160 delegate lead how?

really, I know you love numbers, so tell me.

He'll undoubetedly have a sizeable delegate lead after all the primaries are done.

Then he will get all the remaining super delegate endorsements and that will be that.

He is still the nominee.

[aquarius dawning]

12. By forcing this contest to go to the convention where level heads may, hopefully, prevail.

and, more directly, when Hillary wins more delegates than Obamam in the upcoming contests, she directly erases/diminishes his lead. He may walk into the convention with only a 10-20 point lead instead of a 160 point lead and then he will have to convince the convention that his ability to win red state caucuses is more important than Hillary's ability to wins true blue states and, more importantly, key battleground states.

[SoonerPride]

13. Level heads will see a man with more states won, more delegates, more votes

And that will be that.

Deal with reality for once.

The supers aren't gonna overturn the majority of the party. They aren't gonna do it. Period.

Hillary has lost.

Sorry.

Now support the nominee.

[LSparkle]

16. "Hillary's ability to win true blue states ... "

by VERY small margins, and to get BLOWN OUT in states where Her Arrogance didn't even
bother to campaign. I don't think her "cherry-picking" type of campaign will sit well
with reps of the states she didn't even deign to compete in.

[SoonerPride]

20. Indeed. Anyone that thinks Obama will lose "Blue States" is a moran.

He'll hold onto the base. Duh.

But can Hillary EXPAND the base?

Doubtful.

Obama at least makes some purple states come into play.

[aquarius dawning]

33. I don't think that that's the argument actually.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

56. Dukakis, McGovern and Mondale lost a lot of blue states - so it can be done....

Especially when you have a more "moderate" Republican. McCain has been labeled a "moderate" despite being a major warmonger and anti-choice.

[JoFerret]

93. Unlikely Obama will win more than JK

....should he be the nominee.
Possible. Four extra years of Bushco have worsened everything.
But Obama will not have broad appeal imo. He is very vulnerable in many areas. And we have yet to see an unleashed Michell Obama.
And with the GOP attack machine on full blast shaping him as unamerican, unpatriotic and all the rest of the nonsense it will be a damned hard struggle in what should have been a shoe-in for a good dem.

[PoliticalAmazon]

70. Is HRC hanging on because she knows if she can make it to the primary....

...that her and her fellow elites will steal the election?

I mean, she's been going by the Bush/Rove playbook up to now. What would make her stop from stealing an election?

It's clear that she could not win the GE on her own, without vote fraud. What other reason would she have for pushing on at this point?

[Hepburn]

28. WTF are you smoking?

:eyes:

[Name removed]

67. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[nichomachus]

40. What level heads will see

level heads will see the kind of campaign she's run, which is turning off people right and left. The superdelegates aren't fooled by the attack ads and twisted stories. They will see that many party regulars -- even people who worked for the Clintons -- are abandoning her in droves. That tells them a lot. What they decide may surprise you.

[aquarius dawning]

47. Turning people off right and left? Is that why she's gaining momentum

and Obama is losing momentum?

[nichomachus]

61. She may be gaining momentum in one place

but she is spiraling out of control in others. The PA polls are interesting, but it's important to remember that this is where the negative attack ads, the whisper/smear campaigns, and the endless robocalls with the lies are going on day and night. And it's well known that sleazy campaign tactics will have an effect.

However, because of the Internet and YouTube, the rest of the country is watching -- something that is new to this campaign -- and those are the people who are being turned off. I don't know how many people I've talked to who voted for Hillary in the state primary back on Super Tuesday, but wouldn't give her the time of day today. There are an awful lot of people out there with buyer's remorse. I was talking to a friend in NH yesterday and he is beside himself for voting for her. He thinks it was the stupidest thing he's ever done.

I mean, when you piss off Bill Richardson with your sleazy campaign tactics, you're pretty much crossed a line. He's an old Clinton friend and a diplomat-- and was inches away from supporting her. He doesn't get pissed off so easily.

[Nedsdag]

48. You mean divisiveness and TRUE BITTERNESS!!!!!!

If you truly believe Madame Hillary will win Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio, then you have another thing coming.

[Spider Jerusalem]

99. Righto.

So it goes to the convention, Obama leads by 100-150 delegate, leads in popular vote. Hillary is behind by either measure. Obama brings a solid grassroots organisation, a record-breaking fundraising operation funded by millions of small donors whho are truly engaging in the political process, and millions of new Democratic voters. Hillary has none of those things. The perception among many younger voters and African-American voters (the latter of whom constitute the most consistently reliable voting bloc of the Democratic coalition) will be that the nomination was stolen from Obama, should it be given to Hillary under those circimstances. Many of them will not vote for her in November. The superdelegates and party leaders are certain to be aware of this, and to take it into consideration. Explain to me exactly why anyone with a level head would decide that nominating Hillary in this scenario makes the tiniest bit of sense. Please. I'm serious. Give me the reasons why it would make any sense at all. Because I just don't see it.

[Mags]

2. She's back!!!!!!! Thanks for this good news.

[shadowknows69]

10. Bwah ha ha ha

Let's see the numbers after the debate.

[DUyellow]

3. I really can not wait to see the delgate count from PA...

Obama will be just fine in PA.

[jezebel]

4. !!!!!!!omfg!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!nt

[K Gardner]

7. zOMG !!!!!! Its !!! HUGH !!11!!!!!! !!! !!!! !!!!! !!!!!

[Armstead]

53. !!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I have nothing to say -- Just didn't want to miss out on the chance to use some exclamation points too. :)

[K Gardner]

5. Gallup National: Obama 51 !!!! +11 !!!!! Hillary loses by 11 pts !!!!

[BumRushDaShow]

AND... Rasmussen National: Obama 50 !!!! + 9 !!!!! Hillary loses by 9 pts !!!!

But to Clinton supporters, PA = the whole U.S., "losing" = "winning", "last place" = "first place", "peaceful" = "sniper fire", etc.

[jezebel]

15. The nation doesn't count. Only Penn. counts. And New York. And a very few other states. nt

[BumRushDaShow]

Right. But only on Tuesdays or Thursdays

when the moon is not quite full and the dog howls at 3 am.

[SoCalDem]

6. Um.. not quite.. most of us see rasmussen as the "freepers' favorite" poll

nice try :rofl:

Hillary dear.. you really must get some sleep..:rofl:

[Submariner]

17. newbies like ad think they have the pulse of DU

They get lost on their way to Freepland.

[aquarius dawning]

18. Not all of you obviously:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5458859&mesg_id=5458970">1) Old poll. 2) Flawed poll. See Rassmussen. That is all.


http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=132&topic_id=5458859&mesg_id=5459467">Rasmussen RoCkS!!!


at least you aren't telling me the poll is old.

[SoCalDem]

21. I'm willing to wait until people vote

:hi:

[aquarius dawning]

27. me too, perfectly willing.

:hi:

[nxylas]

39. That second link appears to be to a post from a Clinton supporter

At least the post has an "I'm not paying attention bitter" signature image.

[shaniqua6392]

8. This really is quite a battle.

It goes back and forth like a tennis match. Thanks for posting the new poll numbers. It sure is exciting.

[Texas Hill Country]

9. yes, yes it is. :-)

[DefenseLawyer]

11. Scoreboard n/t

[cali]

14. lol. let's see what happens

he's running a great new ad, and Quinnipiac and other polls show him gaining or holding steady. she's still screwed.

[aquarius dawning]

24. she's still screwed? that is some seriously audacious hoping there.

[cali]

30. not reall;y. he's insurmountably ahead in pledged delegates

he's closed the SD gap almost completely. He's ahead in NC by over 20 and in Oregon by 10. She can't close the gap. your the one CLINGING to a fantasy.

[aquarius dawning]

45. I haven't seen anything current on Oregon.

and I think you're the ones clinging, clinging to a small and ever shrinking delegate lead that will become less and less relevant as the contest drags on.

[housewolf]

19. Rasmussen: today H-50% O-41%, on 4/8 H-48% O-43%

Hillary gained 2 pts this past week, Obama lost 2

[Buzz Clik]

22. RCP Average +7.7. It hasn't changed. Take a breath already.

[housewolf]

23. SUSA: today H-54% O-40%; last week H-56% O-38%

This week Hillary lost 2 points, Obama gained 2, spread went from H +18 to H +14

[aquarius dawning]

32. Now he's only losing by 14 and not 18 so there, nyaaa..

:applause:

(after outspending her 3:1)

[pdxmom]

42. So you admit she's not capable of pulling in the contributions needed to

run a GE campaign. That's a good step towards reality.

[aquarius dawning]

63. pretty sure I didn't actually.

[rodeodance]

25. CHEERS FOR THE GAL~~YES SHE WILL~ YES WE WILL~~~

[jenmito]

36. "YES SHE WILL" WHAT? Win PA as expected?

:rofl:

[MattBaggins]

54. YES SHE WILL

not be the nominee

[PragmatismRules]

96. YES WE WILL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[hedgehog]

26. Margin of error?

All this poll tells me today is that they will spilt the Pennsylvania delgation about evenly.

[GoesTo11]

35. Looks like +/- 3.6%

Sample size was 741. You can use this to calculate margin of error.

http://americanresearchgroup.com/moe.html

That's just for purely random sampling error. Doesn't account for textbook biases like protocol bias and stratification bias that appear in real world polling - and are pretty significant in a turbulent environment, hence the wide variation between polls.

[Beacool]

29. Thank you for the update!!!

:hi:

[emilyg]

31. Kick

[tulsakatz]

34. even if Obama loses PA by a small margin........

...it will still be seen as a win (less than 10 pts) by many analysts! Because if Hillary wins by a small margin, she won't pick up that many more delegates.....which she desperately needs if she expects to argue that she deserves to win over Obama (who already has more delegates than her).

[kmsarvis]

37. Math.

(last week) rasmussen- clinton + 4 / susa- clinton + 18

average margin= + 11

(this week) rasmussen- clinton + 9 / susa- clinton + 14

average margin= + 11.5


WOW!!!! .5,what a gain!!!

[bunnies]

38. PA can HAVE her.

The rest of the country has chosen someone else.

[aquarius dawning]

41. PA is dead to you? Is that what you're saying?

The rest of the country has chosen someone else.
No, they haven't and that's becoming more and more clear the longer this goes on.

[bunnies]

43. Check the pledged delegate count lately?

Just curious.

[kmsarvis]

44. Um, have you seen todays gallup poll?

[aquarius dawning]

50. One battle at a time.

[kmsarvis]

I admire your optimism!!!

[MattBaggins]

55. How is this becoming more and more clear

are you just making stuff up now?

[aquarius dawning]

71. He came out of Super Tuesday with loads of momentum. Where is it now? What happened?

Why is he all of a sudden losing ground despite his best efforts to gain ground? why can't he win swing states? why does he do well in caucuses and red states yet falter in primary elections and blue states? These are all important questions and they all challenge the argument for his invulnerability, his inevitability, and his electability. It is becoming clear to many people that he is not the oprtimal presidential candidate.

[MattBaggins]

46. !!!!!!!!!She is still gonna!!!!!!!Looooooose!!!!!

I need some more !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Is this enough !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Milo_Bloom]

49. She needs 65% to gain ground.. anything less is a loss.

+9 ain't gonna get it done, even +14 aint gonna get it done.

The race is over, she is just playing for 2012

[aquarius dawning]

51. Way to move the goal posts for her.

[Milo_Bloom]

59. That is where they have been for weeks.

You can do the math yourself... she needs a 65% SWEEP... anything less and she has 0 chance.

[aquarius dawning]

65. She needs to narrow the lead such that it ceases to be a significant Obama talking point.

At the convention, a handful of extra delegates will be a weak arguemnt to make if that's the only argumwent one has to make.

[Milo_Bloom]

102. Which would take a 65% SWEEP.

For her to have a viable chance, meaning that she can win the SD, she NEEDS a 65% sweep in all remaining contents. After not winning by enough in Ohio and losing Texas, it only got harder.

Anything less than a 65% sweep and she needs to win something like 70% of the remaining SD's (she is currently only winning about 54% of them). With a 65% sweet she can squeek by by getting around 60% of the remaining SD's (exceeds her current level, but doable). If she loses NC or Oregon, the whole thing is over, b/c she would need 90% of the remaining SD's and that is just silly.


For Obama's lead not to be a significant factor, she needs that 65% sweep... anything less... and she is a footnote.

[Bensthename]

52. An over all 1 point lost this week due to "bitter". Is that all she's got? Talking points

are shifting to: this is leaving people sour about her, she is getting booed on it and she only had 19 of 100 mayors show up, etc... The headlines are changing..

She peaked on this story too early because of Bill bringing up Bosnia.. Uh oh.

[kmsarvis]

57. actually it's only a 1/2 point loss.

rasmussen/susa

avg. margin last week 11
avg. margin this week 11.5

[nichomachus]

58. So near and yet so far

One more exclamation point in your headline and you would have convinced me to vote for Hillary. Awww. Too bad. So close.

[catgirl]

60. "especially hilarious"?

another divisive Clinton supporter. You won't see Obama supporters rubbing it in your face
when he wins. We have tact and integrity.

[aquarius dawning]

62. Somehow, I doubt that very much

and no you don't.

[Phillycat]

78. You must be joking.

!

[ronnykmarshall]

87. ......

:spray:

[Hoof Hearted]

64. lemme guess, Rasmussen sucks now right?

:rofl:

Oh, and NOBODY cares about "bittergate" anymore - even though it's topic #1 on many shows and his poll numbers are tanking.

[aquarius dawning]

68. This poll is old and the methodology is flawed...

The data was collected before Obama's utter genius was revealed to and recognized by the good voters of Pennsylvania. Plus it's way too early to take any polls in PA seriously, there's still a week left for goodness sakes. Did I miss any excuses?

[Name removed]

Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[aquarius dawning]

69. actually, it is going to the convention and the upcoming contetsts do not favor Obama

and then there's the Michigan and Florida issue and then there's the popular vote and then there's several months left to continue firing torpedoes into the SS Obama.

[SoonerPride]

72. I'll make you any kind of wager you want.

$100

$1,000

$5,000

Name your price.

Obama is our nominee.

Deal with that.

[Name removed]

77. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[NDambi]

75. Ha..let go of the fantasy and the pain..it's much healthier..you're heal faster..

Bookmark this thread...and come back to eat your crow soup..

[aquarius dawning]

84. How about we come back to it in November and sees whose eating what?

[NDambi]

91. Why wait until November..there will be plenty of eating to do before that..now don't you

run and hide when it's time to suck it up...okay?

Your girl is so done, you can stick a spoon in her..she ain't gonna be the nominee, and to that I say Hallelujah..down and away with the Clintons!!!

[aquarius dawning]

98. I love it when ya'll get all hateful and bitter every time Hillary has some good news.

That's why I post it actually. lol

[NDambi]

100. Who's bitter and hateful? It's called keeping it real in these parts..she's not gonna be the

nominee. Bank on it! You will be eating crow sooner than November, so bank on that too. Just don't run and hide, or come up with any lame excuses. Okay?

Yes, I want the Clintons to just go away...deal with it or not. Doesn't change my feeling or position. I don't like them and I'm not ashamed to proclaim it.

[David__77]

66. 9 points, or 14, won't help her much.

And once PA is over, the options and chance of a big change narrow dramatically. The ranks will close around the frontrunner.

[aquarius dawning]

73. Once PA is over, Hillary remains highly competitive in the remaining contests

this will go to the convention.

[SoonerPride]

74. She has lost. Put your money where your mouth is.

She is a loser.

[aquarius dawning]

85. That's why she keeps winning I guess.

[SoonerPride]

86. Afraid to put your money where you smart mouth is?

Weak.

You must be a so proud.

plonk

[aquarius dawning]

92. I've already put my money where my mouth is assclown

to the tune of about $1,200.00...so far.

[Name removed]

79. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[DemGa]

76. Double digit wins --- coming up!!

[SeaLyons]

80. Yeah!!!!

The rest of this primary belongs to Hillary!!

Go Hillary!!

K&R

:kick:

[smiley_glad_hands]

81. I guess Hill's republican tactics are working.

But dont try to move the goalposts, she is suppose to win Pa and there is still no way for her to take the lead legitimately.

[GoesTo11]

82. Too few exclamation points.

How come 9 point lead gets 6 exclamation points, but the 14 point lead gets only 4 exclamation points?

[aquarius dawning]

83. I wasn't really counting.

Only a complete geek would count exclamation points. :evilgrin:

[PepsiDemocrat]

88. RCP does not show the ARG Poll, April 14. Clinton leads with 20 %

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

I do wonder why the AGR poll are not amongst the ones on the rcp front page, and not in the ones showing the average in PA.

[aquarius dawning]

97. Holy shit. Good call.

and welcome to the fray btw.

[RBInMaine]

89. Look fool, she has been establishing political roots there for 16 years, and demographics favor her.

You KNOW this, so GIVE US A FREAKING BREAK WITH THIS FOOLISHNESS. She has been favored in this state from the start, and WAS ahead by over 20 points at one time. So GET REAL and STOP SPINNING.

[aquarius dawning]

95. WTF? We're all posting polls today. Have a fucking cow about it why don't you.

[CreekDog]

90. Your OP has no spelling errors and uses the English language in a satisfactory manner.

[PragmatismRules]

94. Yipppeeeeeeeeee!

Horaaaaaay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jackson_dem]

101. It is Ohio redux. Obamites thought Obama could purchase both states with ad blitzes

NO HE CAN'T!