Breaking: Obama Takes The Lead In New Bloomberg/LA Times Indiana Poll

[malik flavors]

Pollsters for the L.A. Times and Bloomberg have been in the field in the three states that will next shape the careening Democratic presidential race, and the results will be welcomed by the recently battered and bruised Barack Obama campaign.

We're not quite ready to reveal the numbers; the findings and an analysis of them will be available here about 2 p.m. (PDT). But, in line with a Quinnipiac poll released today for Pennsylvania, the Times/Bloomberg survey reports little change in what had been the trend in the state as its April 22 primary approaches, despite the firestorm over Obama's comments about the mentality of some denizens of small towns.

Same goes for North Carolina -- prevailing voter attitudes there in the May 6 face-off between Hillary Clinton and Obama do not seem to have been reshaped by the controversy.

The big surprise emerged from Indiana, which also holds its primary on May 6. So far, little polling has been conducted there, but what has been done has been positive for Clinton. No so with these new numbers.

The furor currently surrounding Obama erupted Friday afternoon; our polls were conducted Thursday through Monday.

A caveat about Pennsylvania -- along with the Clinton/Obama fight, a battle is shaping up there among pollsters. Two other fresh surveys (see here and here) give Clinton the double-digit margin most analysts believe she needs to get a major boost from the state.

More broadly, even if Obama dodges bullets in the upcoming primary -- and goes on to claim his party's nomination -- veteran progressive journalist John Judis sounds the alarm about his prospects in November, due in part to his "bitter" comments, in this New Republic piece.

-- Don Frederick

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/04/upcoming-new-la.html

[jpak]

1. Indiana doesn't count

:evilgrin:

[Hope And Change]

2. LOL.I was just going to say that.Awwwwww.

[book_worm]

3. Great news if Hill loses Indiana and NC even if she wins PA she is finished.

[saltpoint]

4. Yes. If this poll reflects a trend and the trend holds, no percentage win in

Pennsylvania can undo a double loss on May 6th in North Carolina and Indiana.

[rox63]

10. Indiana + North Caroline = More delegates than Pennsylvania

:D

[saltpoint]

11. Yes. They are also significantly rural states.

I'd like to know what kind of cash kitty Clinton will have left to compete in both IN and NC at the same time.

[Adelante]

5. I am awfully glad to hear that Indiana news

:thumbsup:

[elocs]

6. Unless polls show a Clinton lead they can in no way be valid. Simple. n/t

[Upton]

7. HRC's done no matter what happens in Indiana

but a loss by her there sure would quicken the process.

[Zachstar]

8. This is good news but it is an early poll and we do not need to assume a victory.

Assume Clinton is winning by 20 and please phonebank!!!

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/phonebankmap/

[dchill]

9. kick.

[poplockndropit]

12. fake.

[malik flavors]

13. Kick

[Jane Austin]

14. I think you are misreading these results

Obama has gained a significant 5% in this poll, but is not in the lead - yet.

[malik flavors]

15. Huh? The polls aren't even out yet. But a source reported that Obama leads in the Indiana poll

[Jane Austin]

16. The news came from Politico

where Ben Smith reported that Mike Allen sent him a teaser on the LA Times poll to be released later today.

Allen said the poll showed Obama "up 5" in the new poll.

Everyone has been reading that as "up by five".

Big difference, as "up five" means he's gained five points, and "up by five" would mean he's ahead by five.

[malik flavors]

17. well, they said the numbers aren't positive for Clinton, so what makes you think he's not ahead?

[Jane Austin]

18. Reading comprehension makes me

think he's not ahead. :)

A five-point gain for Obama is not good news for Clinton.

I am an ardent Obama supporter, and I welcome these results, but we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves.

[malik flavors]

20. I said he'll be ahead, you said he won't. Both are assumptions. How are you comprehending better?

edit - Ok, i re-read your original post. You win.

[malik flavors]

22. Ok, here it is:

LA Times’ Top of the Ticket says major news out of new LA Times/Bloomberg Indiana, North Carolina and Pennsylvania state polls out at about 5 pm ET show Clinton no longer in the lead in the Hoosier State.

Says numbers in Pennsylvania, North Carolina mostly steady.

[Jane Austin]

23. If that's what it says, that's fabulous!

I was going by the story at Politico where I first saw it.

(Edited for misplaced modifier)

[PepsiDemocrat]

19. SurveyUSA:: Hillary defeats Barack 55% to 39%, Men, Democrats, & Young Voters Move Away From Obama

04/14/08, three weeks until the primary, Hillary Clinton defeats Barack Obama 55% to 39%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for WCPO-TV Cincinnati and WHAS-TV Louisville. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released two weeks ago, Clinton is up 3 points, Obama is down 4 points. Clinton had led by 9 at the beginning of April, leads by 16 mid-month. Here's where the movement is occurring: Among men, Obama had trailed by 2, now trails by 12, a 10-point swing to Clinton. In greater Indianapolis, Obama had led by 12, now trails by 1, a 13-point swing to Clinton. Among Democrats, Obama had trailed by 12, now trails by 27, a 15-point swing to Clinton. Among voters focused on health care, Clinton had led by 10, now leads by 30, a 20-point swing to Clinton. Among the youngest voters, Obama had led by 19, now trails by 2, a 21-point swing to Clinton.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=d8b46eaa-c463-408e-98d2-b830eb122d39

[malik flavors]

21. Cool, she's ahead in one, and Obama will probably be ahead in this one. Game on.

[quantass]

24. yup