Obama supporters - where are you setting the bar in PA?

[RiverStone]

Hillary was 20 points up a couple of months ago and pundits from all walks have suggested that anything less than a blow out for Hillary does not help her case.

I think it would be a psychological victory for Obama if he comes within 5-6 points in a loss.

Of course, I'd be thrilled with a razor's edge Obama victory and disappointed if Hillary wins by a big margin since that would continue to justify her rational for moving forward even with a prohibitive pledged delegate count against her.

At one week out... where are you setting the bar for Obama in PA?

[BlooInBloo]

1. If Clinton's win is less than 15 points, she loses.

[Coexist]

2. if she wins by less than 12, she loses - if he loses by less than 9 he wins big.

[NJmaverick]

3. If Obama stays less than 10% he has won

[harun]

4. I really don't care how they finish because Hillary cannot catch up to Obama

and that is what matters.

[scheming daemons]

5. Obama win or Hillary by 0-10%=GOOD, 10-20%=NEUTRAL, 20%+=BAD

[quantass]

22. That's EXACTLY what i was thinking! Glad we think alike

:hi:

[kid a]

6. Hillary by 9

[americanstranger]

7. I say he ends up losing by 10.

Not the blowout that Clinton needs.

If Obama hauls off and kills a few puppies with an axe before Tuesday, she may win by 15.

- as

[myrna minx]

19. I think 10% is a reasonable number, considering all of the poutrage

this week.

[Arrowhead2k1]

8. Clinton can have a blow out in Penn for all I care.

She still will lose. Only problem is that this shit will have to drag on even longer.

[MadBadger]

9. Obama needs to keep it under 15.

If its over, though her delegates wont increase that much, it will be viewed as a blowout.

[SoCalDem]

10. at Boilermaker level 7

[Adelante]

11. Anything under 10 is satisfactory

Something under 5 is gravy. A win is something I'm not allowing myself to consider except in daydreams.

[Zachstar]

12. 5 Percent

[BeyondGeography]

13. Single-digit loss=Win

[Diane R]

14. Clinton needs to win by 20+%, or she's done. Even then, she couldn't win.

[rox63]

15. If Hillary wins by single digits, I'll be ok with that

If she wins in a blow-out, it'll be bad, but not fatal. Of course, I'd be delighted if Obama pulls out a win, but I'd be suprised.

[Cant trust em]

16. If the spread is 5 points, Obama wins

Shows that given time he can win anywhere. Even kitchen sink strategies don't work in the long term.

[TahitiNut]

17. If she doesn't 'win' at least 55% of the DELEGATES, then she FAILED. Big time.

It should be noted very carefully that delegate allocation does NOT follow statewide popular vote. The Democratic Party gives preference to regions and districts with a track record of voting for Democrats. Why? It's not the topmost function of the primary system to appeal to people who vote for the opposition party.

So ... rant on and on about the statewide popular vote ... it's the delegates that count. Depending on where the candidate's support comes from, they can get a HIGHER percentage of delegates or a LOWER percentage of delegates, as compared to the statewide vote.

[RiverStone]

34. Yea, I've heard somewhere that PA could go as TX did...

Reflecting a delegate scenario in PA that favors Obama based on districts won vs total popular vote count.

I'm somewhat of a political junkie, but not so much as to understand the nuances of PA's system in particular (thank goodness!). I do however trust in who ever is on the ground in PA managing the Obama campaign. His 50 state strategy has been one of the best run political machines in recent memory; I assume his state managers are gearing resources to do exactly as you suggest TahitiNut.

[truebrit71]

18. If he keeps it within single digits it's a BIG win for him...

..she has to win by 15-20 points to have ANY claim that she was right..and should (God forbid) stay in...

If it's as close as 5-7 points she is toast...because two weeks later she'll lose and lose BIG on NC (which will negate ANY delegate pick-up from PA) and from then on the math becomes completely impossible for her...

I predict she will spin herself stupid about the PA win, but will be planning a somewhat grateful exit after NC/IN....

If she doesn't get the hint by then, she will take it to the convention, Obama will win, but McLame will squeak out a victory in the GE because there simply won't be time to rebuild the bridges Hillary will have destroyed to get the party back together...

Bottom line: Obama HAS to keep it close in PA and then pound her into the dirt a fortnight later...

That's about the only way we take back the WH this year...

Of course if Hillary squirms and weasels her way to the nomination we are ALL fucked in November...

[democrattotheend]

20. Realistically, I think he has to lose by less than 10

My observation so far this year has been that when someone wins by 10 or more, it's a big win, regardless of where they were in the polls at the beginning. That was the case in Massachusetts, California, and Ohio, where it was portrayed as a big win for Clinton despite winning by less than the polls had shown a few weeks earlier. The exception to this rule, of course, is states in the Deep South with large African American populations, where an Obama win is simply expected and the news is the fact that he lost the white vote by large margins instead of the fact that he won by 24 points.

I know some Obama supporters will disagree with me on this, but I think the superdelegates and the media narrative are the most important things now. We all know he will have more delegates at the end, so the delegate count really doesn't matter. If he loses by 10 or more it will be a red flag to the superdelegates about his viability in crucial swing states, and it will give her momentum going into Indiana. The rest of the primary calendar favors her, except for Oregon, so he really needs to keep it close in PA or he's in trouble. It doesn't matter if he has more delegates...if she has the momentum at the end she can make a credible case to the supers about buyers' remorse, especially if he starts trailing in the tracking polls. Even if he got the nomination at that point, he'd be in a weakened state that would make it harder for him to win the general.

[rocktivity]

21. At least we don't have to wonder who's setting the bar in Indiana!

:evilgrin:



But seriously, folks, Hillary needs a MINIMUM of 65% of the vote in ALL the remaining caucuses and primaries if she wants an appeal to the superdelegates to have any kind of credibility--a 30-point lead. In PA, a 20 to 29-point lead lead will only allow her to save face; a 10 to 20-point lead is wash. And if she wins by less than ten points, she truly has reached the beginning of the end.

:headbang:
rocknation

[Dbdmjs1022]

23. If Obama keeps it in single digits, he's good to go.

[thoughtcrime1984]

24. Under 10% loss would be satisfactory. nt

[AllentownJake]

25. Hillary +50

Anything else is a miserable failuer :-)

[IDemo]

26. She needs 20% or higher to have any real effect

but will spin anything other than a big win by Obama as a big win for herself.

[book_worm]

27. Clinton's got to win by 20-points or more to make any kind of impact.

[Bensthename]

28. Obama by one. Bitter is backfiring.

[AtomicKitten]

His delegate count is insurmountable. It's already over regardless.

[knixphan]

30. ding ding ding!

That is the correct answer!!

[RiverStone]

35. Unfortunately, Hillary has earplugs....

She hears not a single ding.

[knixphan]

40. lol - sadly...

[DemVet]

43. Over? Really? Obama has reached 2025 delegates?

No, he hasn't, and won't.

[AtomicKitten]

47. Really? Even Ed Rendell and Barnie Frank have said she should drop out

sooner than later when there are no more delegates to battle over and when she (and you) finally do the math and realize this race has been over for weeks. Now you and she are just obnoxious guests that lack the grace to know when you've overstayed her viability (and welcome).

Bitter on!

[rndmprsn]

29. anything less than a 20 point spread by clinton...and she'll need some expaining to do...

[SoonerPride]

31. 20 points. She has to win every contest by 20 points. Period.

Anything less than that she fails.

[TayTay]

32. Clinton by 19 points n/t

[rug]

33. The only goalposts I see shifted is what kind of loss constitutes a win for Obama.

[RiverStone]

36. Looks like the consensus on this thread is anything within a single digit loss on points. ..n/t

[TahitiNut]

41. Utter nonsense. The repeated claims that Obama wins "don't count" has whiskers.

Try a little consistency. :eyes:

[rug]

45. Try a little literacy. This whole thread states Clinton wins don't count.

[TahitiNut]

46. Count the delegates.

She looks like a loser to me. :shrug:

She might gain 6-7 delegates in Pennsylvania ... and is behind by far more than 100. Tough shit. Cry me a river.

:nopity:

[rug]

48. The OP is about percentages.

If you want to practice your smileys, try yahooligans.

[globalvillage]

37. We plan on winning here. n/t

[tishaLA]

38. I've always said she would win by 8%

I'm wondering if there isn't something going on that we don't know about though. Why is camp Obama making a significant ad buy if they believe they are far down? Is there something they know that leads them to believe they can get even closer--and maybe win? Do they want put so much money into the state in the hopes that it will knock Hillary out of the race finally?

[tekisui]

39. Single Digit HRC win, is a win for Obama.

A single digit Obama win, is Nominee Obama on April 23rd.

[aquarius dawning]

42. she needs to win by a gazillion votes or else it's an Obama win. it's that simple.

[TheDonkey]

44. I hope Obama wins. Could stomach Hillary wining by 6-7pts

8-10pts would be a bad loss. 4-5pt loss would be a victory.

[mrJJ]

49. Stop Running such a good campaign!

As an unofficial spokeman for the Acme GoalPost Moving Company; I can say this.. Please ask Sen Obama to STOP running such a damn good campaign! Sen Clinton and her spokeman are wearing our non-union GoalPost personnel to death!!! Moving those heavy & awkward post around daily is killing us. Thank you in advance for any assistance you can give us.

Acme GoalPost Moving Company

(non-unionized members as requested by the Clinton Campaign)