Keep in mind that Florida has a gay marriage initiative on the ballot this November.

[NJSecularist]

Back in 2005, a group called Florida4Marriage.org put together a proposal for a ballot initiative. The proposal is stated as follows:

http://election.dos.state.fl.us/initiatives/initdetail.asp?account=41550&seqnum=1

This amendment protects marriage as the legal union of only one man and one woman as husband and wife and provides that no other legal union that is treated as marriage or the substantial equivalent thereof shall be valid or recognized.

They needed to obtain 611,000 signatures to get this initiative on the ballot. They received 650,000 signatures. The ballot measure received approval from the Supreme Court in early 2006 and made it onto the ballot just 2 months ago. The voters in Florida will vote on this initiative in November 2008, the date of the general election.

The Rethugs are trying to use the same methods they used in Ohio in 2004 to win the state. The fundies will be out in full force to vote for this bill. For all the Hillary supporters who think that Florida is within reach for Hillary, I advise you not to get your hopes up. Hillary's only chance of winning this state is to come out in favor of this initiative. She probably won't. If she does, most of her supporters here will be in outrage.

Florida is not in play for the Democrats, so those who are using that as a feather in Hillary's nomination cap are going to be sorely dissapointed if they think Hillary will win Florida and it's an effective argument for why she should be nominated.

[dsc]

1. and you have the unmitigated gall to wonder why so many gays

think many Obama supporters don't give a damn about gays.

[PM7nj]

2. What does this have to do with Obama?

[dsc]

6. where did I say Obama

I said Obama supporters. This person posts a thread about the taking of civil rights from millions of Floridians and can only celebrate about what it means to Hillary.

[NJSecularist]

8. Where the fuck did I celebrate?

I'd appreciate you not putting words in my mouth.

I never did such a thing.

[dsc]

9. your sorrow is so evident

Hell, you still haven't even given any apparent thought to what passage would mean as you only address yourself.

[NJSecularist]

11. Did you read the full text of the measure?

I did. Did you? Probably not. You just engaged in a petty outburst at me and put words in my mouth. Shame on you.

I read the full text of the measure and I am well aware of the consequences of this ballot initiative passing. I am pissed at what this measure entails. But I am simply telling people that our chances in Florida are very slim.

[dsc]

16. I really don't need to read the text

I can pretty much guess. You see, when an issue affects you personally you get a pretty good idea of what the issue is about.

[Wes87]

3. Yea, seriously.

[NJSecularist]

5. Huh? Where did you get that from?

What in the lord are you talking about? Some of my very best friends are gay.

Who dare you make bullshit up and say I don't care about the LGBT community.

Fact: There is a gay marriage ban initiative on the ballot.
Fact: These initiatives have shown to increase turnout amount the fundies.

This state has been trending Republican for years, and we can't rely on low turnout to win this election either. This state will be go Republican regardless of whether Hillary or Obama is the nominee.

[dsc]

7. Your unmistaken total glee at the prospect

and not one word of sorrow. Just look at how bad it is for Hillary.

[NJSecularist]

10. There is no glee in my post.

None at all. I am simply telling everybody the reality of the situation. How many people are aware that there is a ballot measure on the FL ballot in November 2008? You would be surprised. Not many, especially on this forum.

When in my post did I celeberate? When did I express glee?

I realize you do not like us Obama supporters, but making stuff up does you no good.

[dsc]

15. let me be perfectly blunt here

If I dared post about an iniative that took targeted Affirmative Action without any mention at all of what a tragedy it would be if it passed I would be, rightfully, considered at best racially insenitive. Well, this is the same thing only about gays.

[NJSecularist]

18. I thought it was perfectly clear what an outrage this ballot measure is

I've expressed that many times in previous posts (not in this thread) where I've mentioned this ballot initiative and what it has the power to do if enacted.

With all due respect, you have put words in my mouth consistently this thread. It is not appreciated. All of us see what an outrage this ballot initiative is.

[dsc]

21. I'll take you at your word

[redstate_democrat]

32. Ward Connerly has several Affirmative Actions inititatives

on ballots in key states this election. But AA is not only a race thing, it's also a gender issue as well.

[JoFerret]

41. Must say - I did not quite follow your logic in the post

...have another go at saying what you meant.

(And thanks for pointing out that dreadful ballot initiative.)

[NJSecularist]

48. My point is that this unjust ballot initiative will likely increase fundie turnout

And make it even harder to win Florida than it already was. Florida is more of a solid Republican state than a swing state, IMO.

No glee here at all - I recognize how shitty this ballot initiative is - but let's fact the facts, winning Florida will be an uphill battle, and this ballot initiative is just one reason out of many.

[woolldog]

22. his tone was matter-of-fact

and his analysis correct. The initiative will swell conservative turnout in Florida making it that much harder to win.

[JoFerret]

42. Or the other way round

.

[knixphan]

53. I understand you NJ

I thought the post was rather clear.

[slick8790]

4. I've been saying this for a while now.

Florida is a red state, not a swing state. We should not pin the hopes of a Democratic administration on winning one fucked up state wracked with voting irregularities.

[boston bean]

14. so we better win oh ad pa.

[slick8790]

19. Or Iowa, or MO, or VA, or NV, or CO, or NM, or any number of other states.

The "big state" strategy has fucked us two elections in a row. Are we ever going to learn to stop relying on a few states to effectively decide for the rest of us?

What's the definition of insanity, again?

[JoFerret]

44. The primary (among democrats)

is a different kettle of bananas than the GE.

[slick8790]

47. All of those states are most certainly winnable by BO.

Maybe some (IA, CO, NV) more than others (VA, MO). But GE polls have all shown them to be relatively competitive for Obama and blowouts for McCain vs. hillary.

[woolldog]

23. HRC can't win the GE wihtout winning Florida.

I won't say it's impossible for her to win without FL. But looking at her electoral map it's very very unlikely she wins the GE without the big 3: FL, OH, and PA.

[NJSecularist]

24. Hillary needs to win 2 or 3 of those states, just like Kerry. That is her path to win the GE. n/t

[woolldog]

30. She needs to win all three. n/t

[NJSecularist]

49. No, she most certainly doesn't.

2 or 3 of OH, PA or FL will certainly win her the presidency.

[Florida22ndDistrict]

34. re: I've been saying this for a while now.

Yeah we're so red that we are the state with the largest group freshmen democratic congressmen in the 110th congress; so red that we voted for Gore in 2000; so red that we voted for Clinton in 1996. In a year where it looked like democratic victory was being served on a silver platter it seems the party almost wants to loss. Not only does it look like they want to lose their chance at the executive office, but it seems they want to surrender control over the legislative office as well (which also surrenders the judicial as well). The 48 state strategy will definitely paint it red this year. Don't let that gas up your head when bad strategy proves your point come November.

[Tesha]

40. *YOU* may have voted for Gore, but your electors didn't.

Florida is RED, whether through the actual temperement
of the voters or through "the fix".

Tesha

[Florida22ndDistrict]

46. re: *YOU* may have voted for Gore, but your electors didn't.

The decision to not count the votes was a federal decision. Florida voters are not responsible for the supreme court's decision. If the supreme court steals the electorates vote, that does not make the voters republican. Nonetheless you still ignore the gains that were achieved in 2006, which indicates that Florida was swinging back towards the democrats, but who cares right. The nature of swing states is to swing as one party disappoints them and the other looks like a viable alternative. I guess you would prefer missing your turn to prove that the democrats deserve attention.

* Yes I did vote for Gore in 2000.

[msongs]

12. obama says marriage is only man/woman because HIS bible says so so get over it nt

[azmouse]

13. This is exactly the type of wedge issue that Obama talked about.

The Reps use this ploy in major elections to bring out their base.

Thankfully it didn't work for them here in AZ where the Reps tried to pass a One Man-One Woman marriage law a few years past. AZ isn't as red as it used to be. I hope the same can be said for Florida in a few years.

[NJSecularist]

17. Yup.

The Rethugs use this ballot measure as a way to get their base out to the polls. And it has been proven to work.

I am not happy with it being on the ballot, because it will almost assuredly pass and deny hundreds of thousands of gays equal rights. It also limits our chances of winning an increasingly red state.

[azmouse]

20. Even if it passes it could spend years in court.

Hopefully by then we Dems have some friends on the SCOTUS and can overturn such bigoted laws.

[TankLV]

55. yep - too bad obama is pandering to the same base...

he did so again this past weekend...

disgusting, isn't it?

[johnnydrama]

25. say what?

Republicans using a wedge issues to get voters out to the polls for them?

Didn't somebody recently talk about this tactic?

I'm forgetting who though........

[BzaDem]

26. Wow. Now Obama supporters are saying FL is not in play, while solid repub states are in play.

[Awsi Dooger]

29. Incredible, isn't it?

I posted a lengthy reply, along those same lines, before seeing your comment.

Up is down and down is up. That's all I can conclude.

I wonder if we'll truly be shocked in November, when red states vote red and blue states vote blue and swing states are in the balance?

It's founded in outright guesswork, that's the problem. The mainstream media does an inept job of describing the basics, like percentages of self-identified liberals and consevatives in each state, and how that translates to the voting booth. Maybe it will improve a little bit this fall, since we've seen more focus on demographics this cycle. That's the primary equivalent of liberal/conservative percentages.

[Florida22ndDistrict]

37. Insane huh?

In 2006 Florida voters swung to Democrats and brought them the largest group of freshmen democrats in the congress only to be shit on by the DNC with disenfranchisement and disrespect a year and a half latter.

[NJSecularist]

50. Which solid republican states have I said will be in play?

Obama will not win ONE state in the South.

[Awsi Dooger]

27. Classic overreaction

Florida is very much in play. Ballot measures like that are severely overrated. Hell, the OP gave the perfect reference point, Ohio in '04. That state voted slightly more Democratic than the nation as a whole, despite the ballot measure.

The key is winning the national popular vote. If you manage that, the logical states are dragged along. Kerry wins Ohio if he's slightly more popular overall.

Florida requires a bit more of a yank because it's about 2 points more red than the nation as a whole, but that's it. Any assertion that it's a lost cause is outright deception, or Obama-supporter dismissive tactics. He appears to fare worse than Hillary in Florida due to demographic concerns. I believe she would fare about 1 point better than Obama in a general election setting, in relation to their national standing vs. McCain. But keep in mind these things are subject to shift and early state polling is not nearly as significant as historical relationship to national preference.

Gore didn't appear to have much of a chance in Florida until August, when it became clear the state was suddenly more in line with the national margin. It had been trending our way, but slowly. And nothing has changed dramatically in that regard, over 8 years. Florida reached a settled state of about 2 points red. It's obvious in every poll, ones that have no specific inquiry of presidential choice. Just check the damn liberal/conservative percentages and Florida screams as a swing state. Florida is in the range of 20% liberal and 32% self-identified conservatives. Newsflash: a state like that is in play, by definition. It requires clueless disregard for every known applicable voting trend to assert Florida is hopeless. Gore and Kerry won every state with 24% or more self-identified liberals. Bush won everything at 35% or higher conservatives. The gray area states reach neither thresh hold, and Florida is included.

Funny how Obama supporters are keen to twist Florida, any way they want it. We've been told countless times the Florida primary result wasn't meaningful because neither side campaigned, along with my absolute favorite rationalization, that so many people voted because of the homestead exemption and not the presidential primary. LOL. You wonder how this stuff passes for legit, in anyone's mind. I wish I could have put up separate primaries in a parallel universe, everything else being equal, one including a presidential choice and one without. Then bet every planetary cent that the former garners significantly more votes. I've been in Florida since December 13 and quizzed countless residents, specifically on primary day. Many had no idea the homestead exemption was even on the ballot, or how they voted, but they damn sure could rattle off who they preferred in the presidential matter.

Obama will be the nominee and we've got a shot in Florida, if Obama leads the consensus of national polling by 2-3 points or more. Any other analysis isn't worth reading.

[Hugabear]

33. You don't know Florida very well, do you?

Florida is still a pretty solidly religious state, with plenty of fundy whacknuts. The OP is correct, the gay marriage ballot issue is definitely going to help increase the GOP and religious turnout. Churches all over the state will be pushing this issue.

Don't be so naive.

[NJSecularist]

51. Kerry lost Florida by 5 points.

We spent tons of money in Florida in 2004 and we couldn't even come close. Since 2004, the state has trended even more Republican.

Your point is moot - if Obama wins the national popular vote by 2-3 points, he won't need Florida. He may win it, but he'll already have won 270 electoral votes anyway because it likely means he would have won both Florida and Pennsylvania.

[UALRBSofL]

28. Yes, I know about the ballot but as a floridian I believe

Hillary could win the state but no way will Obama win the state.

[mrreowwr_kittty]

31. Yeah, more FL bigots will turn out for your candidate than ours. Big whoop.

And don't tell me they're not. I've lived there many times. Basically, Hillary will lose by a smaller margin than Barack. Whatever. Their loss.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. It Might Not Pass

Amendments need sixty percent plus to become law...

[Florida22ndDistrict]

38. Sadly it will most likely pass, especially with the 48 state strategy.

I will vote against it even if I don't vote for the Democrat.

[NJSecularist]

52. Is that Florida law?

Numerous ballot initiatives passed in 2006 without 60% of the vote, including Wisconsin's same sex marriage ban

[DemocratSinceBirth]

61. Florida Law

Actually passed through an initiative... I am ambivalent about it but in this case it's a good thing...

I hope at least 40% of my fellow Floridians aren't bigots...

Neither Jeb Bush or Charlie Crist wanted it on the ballot...They didn't want an anti affirmative action amendment on the ballot either which they successfuly kept off...

Even the Republicans try to keep the bigots at bay...It's bad for Florida's image and hurts tourism...

[rucky]

36. Agreed. No matter who our nominee, McCain's locked up FL.

[boppers]

39. FAIL.

"substantial equivalent thereof" Are you kidding me?

First year law students wouldn't write such drivel.

[Independent-Voter]

43. Florida's not going Democratic anytime soon, period

It just ain't happening. It's been almost a decade since Gore got screwed, and the demographics of that state have continued to change in favor of the republicans. That's just the facts, and the dems need to find a way to the presidency that doesn't include Florida until a good portion of it's population dies off.

Harsh, yes, but true.

[Florida22ndDistrict]

62. re: Florida's not going Democratic anytime soon, period

I'm wondering how many presidential elections in the United States you think there have been since Gore got screwed? I know you can count that high. Come on say it with me “ONE”. You do realize that in 1996 Clinton won here. In 2000 Gore would have won if the supreme court would have allowed our votes to be counted. In 2006 we turned the largest number of republican seats in the congress into democratic seats. I know you are smarter then you let on.

[Orsino]

45. As long as we leave this open as an "issue" to be voted on...

...the GOP will make hay of it, creating a ballot measure every election cycle.

Protect marriage as a civil right for all, and we take their toy away from them. If you can't get on board the equality train, DUers, can you at least consider supporting gay rights for this purely practical reason?

[TankLV]

56. than why is obama against gay marriage?

he's certainly not for "equal rights"!!!

[Justitia]

57. Why is Hillary against gay marriage? Why is she against the FULL repeal of DOMA? -eom

[Orsino]

59. Political expediency.

I don't think that he, Clinton or McCain opposes same-sex marriage on principle. They just think they have to say so to get elected.

[Justitia]

60. McCain probably does. He's much more of a winger than he lets on.

He stated emphatically in the last few days that he would not even consider a (repub) pro-choice VP, and I've never heard a candidate state that so starkly at this point in the process.

That means Tom Ridge (lots of rumors around that one) & Ghouliani are definitely out.

[NJSecularist]

58. Are you proposing an amendment?

I would definitely be in favor of a gay marriage amendment, but the problem at this point is that we don't have the support for it at this point and GW will veto it anyways.

Hopefully we can make progress towards an amendment with Senator Clinton or Obama.

[Justitia]

54. Assholes. I knew FL would be red anyway, but I hate these freaking amendments.

We had the same disgraceful bullshit here in TX, it made me physically ill.